March 2025

[jasons2k]

We’ll be lucky to get one inch of rain this month. The drought is about to get much worse over the next few weeks across the state.

We managed 1.17” over here from the storms before the dust cloud.

Something tells me that dust cloud was symbolic and prophetic.

[DoctorMu]

Windows wide open today airing out the place. Gorgeous day.

Bad gas? Kidding. Lol

Yesterday was a true Chamber of Common Day. Beautiful blue sky. 60s. Nice Texas northerly late winter breeze

Today isn't too bad. The DP isn't up... yet.

[DoctorMu]

0.66 inches of rain before the dust storm here. Good enough for now.

Another FROPA and chance for rain on Saturday.

[tireman4]

010
FXUS64 KHGX 071202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025

A steady onshore flow regime is expected to fully redevelop today
as a developing surface low along the leeside of the Rocky
Mountains results in a tightening of the surface pressure
gradient. Persistent WAA, along with robust moisture transport,
will produce noticeably warmer and more humid conditions this
afternoon as surface dew points break back into the mid 60s and
maximum temperatures reach the upper 70s to around 80 for most of
the area. This pattern will also allow for widespread cloud cover
to return to the area with conditions becoming overcast by late
morning. Overnight lows tonight, owing to this increased cloud
cover along with continued WAA, will remain in the 60s.

Rainfall chances return to the forecast on Saturday, with an
outside chance to see a few stronger thunderstorms. Models
continue to show weak cyclogenesis to our west overnight tonight
as an amplified midlevel trough digs into the Four Corners region.
As this system moves off to the northeast on Saturday and drags a
cold front into the area from the W/NW, rainfall chances will
begin to increase. Initial showers may develop along the coast as
early as Saturday morning, with steadier rainfall arriving as the
surface front moves through the area and offshore during the
afternoon. HiRes models continue to show SB instability in the
vicinity of 500-1000 J/kg as the front approaches, with much more
favorable numbers in the wind shear department (30-40 kts shear,
200-300 m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3km layer). Nonetheless, forecast
soundings also show the presence of a fairly stout midlevel
inversion that should work to inhibit convective development.
Given the timing of this system, it appears that it will be
difficult to overcome this capping layer, but the potential for
some stronger storms can`t be ruled out as long as the erosion of
the cap remains a possibility. Given the environment, SPC
continues to maintain a Marginal risk of severe weather for
Saturday. Even though this remains a conditional threat like our
last few convective episodes, it is still worth monitoring how
conditions evolve as the system draws closer.

As northwest winds develop behind the front, an influx of cool and
dry air into the region will result in Saturday night`s lows
dropping into the 40s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025

Front will be well off the coast Sunday, though we`ll see some wrap
around cloudiness in its wake during the day. Expect breezy and cool
conditions prevailing with readings topping out in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Clouds will clear out Sunday night and Monday as high
pressure builds into the region. Once it moves to the east late
Monday, onshore winds will resume and a gradual warming trend will
ensue for the remainder of the week. Another wx system will track
across the Southern Plains toward midweek, but llvl sw flow should
keep things capped off...and allowed for a continued rise in
temperatures in the mid-late week period. Temps ~43/73F Monday
should be in the 60/85F territory Wed-Fri. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 556 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025

A few MVFR cigs linger as we approach sunrise- however, cigs
should lift to VFR over the next few hours and remain above VFR
thresholds until this evening. Winds will increase to around 10
knots this afternoon and shift to the south and later the south-
southwest. Conditions will deteriorate overnight tonight with IFR
cigs and areas of fog expected to impact the area. The highest
chances for fog will be concentrated along the immediate coast.
Rainfall chances begin to increase prior to sunrise tomorrow as a
cold front approaches the area. With low initial coverage
expected, have chosen to characterize the chance for rain using
PROB30 groups.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025

Buoy 42019 still reporting 20kt south winds and 7 ft seas. Will
extend the small craft advsy there into mid morning. Otherwise, 12-
17kt winds should prevail today then continue to diminish this
evening. Conditions appear somewhat favorable for seas fog
development tonight into Saturday. Visibilities should improve in
the mid to late morning hours in the bays, but may linger near the
beaches and just off the coast well into the afternoon. A front
should pass into the waters Saturday afternoon in the Matagorda Bay
area and the evening in the Galveston area. Though only modest
northwest winds are expected behind the initial wind shift, they
will steadily pick up late Saturday night and Sunday and Small Craft
Advisories will be required. Potential looks pretty good for low
water conditions in the bays around low tide times Sunday. High
pressure moves overhead then to our east on Monday, followed by a
return of moderate onshore winds into mid week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 64 74 43 / 0 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 81 66 79 49 / 0 10 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 65 72 51 / 0 10 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
for GMZ375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47

[tireman4]

Hummmm

[sambucol]

Hummmm

Is that a cold mass? Hope so.

[Stratton20]

Its not cold, thats a mean sea level surface pressure map

[jasons2k]

Hummmm

Is that a cold mass? Hope so.

Not south of the low.
It’s a map of air pressure and blue = low.

The map implies an intense storm system moving across the plains with a severe weather outbreak.

[tireman4]

Hummmm

Is that a cold mass? Hope so.

Not south of the low.
It’s a map of air pressure and blue = low.

The map implies an intense storm system moving across the plains with a severe weather outbreak.

That is why I said, hummm.

[tireman4]

More Humm....

[DoctorMu]

More Humm....

Dallas through KC would be under the gun on the warm side.

[DoctorMu]

Euro, CMC, GFS are on board. Batten down the hatches in a week.

[Cpv17]

Meh, won’t have any impact on us. Drought will worsen across most of Texas.

[DoctorMu]

Meh, won’t have any impact on us. Drought will worsen across most of Texas.

Probably not in Houston. Maybe from CLL to Waco.

[DoctorMu]

Houston, we have a problem.

Jamie Dupree
@jamiedupree

DOGE cuts in the National Weather Service mean there aren't enough staffers to launch weather balloons which gather atmospheric data to help with forecasts.

https://x.com/jamiedupree/status/1898137598964769085

All we need is a Sharpie, not a weather balloon.

[tireman4]

Tomorrow

[sambucol]

So get ready for some active weather next week. All that blue had me thinking it was cold coming down one more time!

[Cpv17]

So get ready for some active weather next week. All that blue had me thinking it was cold coming down one more time!

It won’t be active in SE TX. We’re gonna be going into a bad drought probably over the next few months.

[tireman4]

Today

[Stratton20]

Dont expect much if any rain down in se texas out of this system, everything looks to stay well north of us