March 2025
The forecast hasn't changed much here. The colder aire and advection will probably catch up with the warm stuff early, The Piney Woods, LA, MS, even AL has a significant risk of nighttime severe weather. I hope they escape.
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The Severe weather season is starting off quick this year. We were upgraded to an enhanced risk here.
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Fire weather watch issued for tomorrow. Oh joy. Like I said a couple days ago, don’t expect much rain around here tomorrow.
We have converging winds up there. The moist air pump is full blast. A morning FROPA should reduce the risk of severe weather locally, though. Tonight could be rough north of us. Don could have severe weather, then a dust storm!
We drove once through a combo haboob and severe thunderstorm near Childress. There was a double rainbow afterwards!
A T-storm - haboob twofer is possible:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/03/weather/ ... index.html
Most of America is in a drought.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The most severe droughts are in West Texas, Central Texas, and Southern Nevada.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The most severe droughts are in West Texas, Central Texas, and Southern Nevada.
That main line of showers has some punch. 50+ mph gusts.
As suspected, the cooler air arrived quickly and mitigated the severe threat in CLL.
Severe t-storm warning near and east of Huntsville.
As suspected, the cooler air arrived quickly and mitigated the severe threat in CLL.
Severe t-storm warning near and east of Huntsville.
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Geez, wasn’t expecting a quick 20 degree drop in temps behind the front.
Tried to warn y'all. However, there's a west wind kicking up with mild, desert air. Warm temps, low DP on the way.
We're up to 70°F again in an hour. Dust/haze are expected as the winds increase.
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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75 degrees here
nasty!
nasty!80°F here. Feels like the desert out there.
The winds are not playing today they are gusting over 60 mph now.
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Woah. I figure that Don was in for a ride.
Yeah. 70°F here - but feels like 64° with W25 G45; DP = 27°F Desert air from New Mexico + pull around from the low.
Yeah. 70°F here - but feels like 64° with W25 G45; DP = 27°F Desert air from New Mexico + pull around from the low.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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453
FXUS64 KHGX 050954
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Cold front has moved through the area overnight. Winds are starting
to pick back up, but now from the NW with some gusts to 20-25kt.
Skies will be mostly sunny today with highs in the 60s. Winds will
diminish later in the afternoon and evening as surface high pressure
moves into the area and eventually overhead tonight. Lighter winds
and clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 40s (and probably
some 30s NE parts of the CWA). The surface high will slide off to
the east Thursday. Onshore winds will resume and increase as lee
side pressures fall and we`ll begin to see a gradual
modifying/warming trend with highs getting closer to 70F Thursday
and lows Thursday night in the mid 50s. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Southwesterly flow aloft walks into a (850) millibar and asks how
many times have we reached the 80s this month...before we even
answer it said that they`re ordering another round for us on Friday.
850mb temperatures will be near or at the 90th percentile on Friday,
especially in our southwestern zones. With mixing in the boundary
layer, some of that abnormally warm air will sink and warm
adiabatically as it makes its way to the surface. That`s a very
roundabout way to say that temperatures will be about 10F above
average as most of us top out in the low 80s on Friday. Friday is
also when an approaching upper level trough will be moving through
the Four Corners region. Surface low pressure drifts eastward
across the Central Plains and leaves a lingering frontal boundary
over north TX going into Friday night. With onshore flow ongoing
and the addition of moisture convergence as a frontal boundary
approaches, we`ll have quite a bit of low-level moisture in place
leading to the potential for widespread patchy fog going into
Saturday morning. Some isolated showers will be possible in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on early Saturday morning as well.
On Saturday, another surface low develops around central TX on the
tail-end of the previously mentioned front and drifts eastward. As
it does so, it`ll drag a cold front through the region in the
afternoon. There`s plenty of moisture in place for showers/storms
to develop ahead of and along the frontal boundary. FROPA timing
looks to occur late enough in the afternoon for areas south of
I-10 to still reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. North of I-10, the
forecast reflects high temperatures in the low to upper 70s.
Cooler and drier air filters in behind the front leading to
widespread low temperatures in the 40s over the weekend. We flip
the script from a rainy and warm Saturday to a cool and dry Sunday
with plentiful sunshine alongside high temperatures in the low to
mid 60s. Onshore flow and ridging aloft establishes on Monday
leading to a warming trend going into early next week. We`ll be
back near 70F on Monday, the mid 70s on Tuesday, and the
warming trend doesn`t stop there if you catch my drift...
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
VFR conditions today with mclear skies, but we`ll see some breezy NW
winds around 15g25kt. Speeds should diminish late in the afternoon
and especially overnight as high pressure moves overhead. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Moderate northwesterly flow will persist into the late morning
and may bring a period of slightly low water levels in the bays
during low tide. PETSS guidance predicts quite a few stations
dropping to around -0.5 ft MLLW during low tide just before
sunrise. Small Craft Advisories continue into midday, then will be
followed by caution flags into the late afternoon. Winds and seas
subside going into tonight. Winds veer to the east then southeast
on Thursday with caution flags likely to return late Thursday as
winds/seas briefly increase. With onshore flow increasing moisture
and a period of light winds on Friday night/Saturday morning,
there is potential for sea fog to develop in the nearshore waters
and the bays. Fog may linger in the nearshore waters into daytime
Saturday until a cold front pushes through. The next cold front
pushes offshore on Saturday afternoon leading to a period of
moderate to strong northerly winds and elevated seas prevailing
into Sunday.
Batiste
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Elevated fire weather conditions will persist today with breezy NW
winds 15-20mph with some higher gusts and RH`s dropping into the 22-
30% range this afternoon. This isn`t quite as significant as
yesterday when we saw RH`s bottom out in the single digits and
teens. The Texas A&M Forest Service products point toward an overall
low to moderate fire danger across the area today. That said, we`ll
monitor trends and would advise using extreme caution with any
outdoor burning today... especially Matagorda Bay area where fuel
moisture levels will be a bit drier than the rest of the area. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 41 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 43 69 56 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 52 66 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355-
370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon today to 3 PM CST
this afternoon for GMZ335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon CST today through
this afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 050954
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Cold front has moved through the area overnight. Winds are starting
to pick back up, but now from the NW with some gusts to 20-25kt.
Skies will be mostly sunny today with highs in the 60s. Winds will
diminish later in the afternoon and evening as surface high pressure
moves into the area and eventually overhead tonight. Lighter winds
and clear skies will allow temps to fall into the 40s (and probably
some 30s NE parts of the CWA). The surface high will slide off to
the east Thursday. Onshore winds will resume and increase as lee
side pressures fall and we`ll begin to see a gradual
modifying/warming trend with highs getting closer to 70F Thursday
and lows Thursday night in the mid 50s. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Southwesterly flow aloft walks into a (850) millibar and asks how
many times have we reached the 80s this month...before we even
answer it said that they`re ordering another round for us on Friday.
850mb temperatures will be near or at the 90th percentile on Friday,
especially in our southwestern zones. With mixing in the boundary
layer, some of that abnormally warm air will sink and warm
adiabatically as it makes its way to the surface. That`s a very
roundabout way to say that temperatures will be about 10F above
average as most of us top out in the low 80s on Friday. Friday is
also when an approaching upper level trough will be moving through
the Four Corners region. Surface low pressure drifts eastward
across the Central Plains and leaves a lingering frontal boundary
over north TX going into Friday night. With onshore flow ongoing
and the addition of moisture convergence as a frontal boundary
approaches, we`ll have quite a bit of low-level moisture in place
leading to the potential for widespread patchy fog going into
Saturday morning. Some isolated showers will be possible in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on early Saturday morning as well.
On Saturday, another surface low develops around central TX on the
tail-end of the previously mentioned front and drifts eastward. As
it does so, it`ll drag a cold front through the region in the
afternoon. There`s plenty of moisture in place for showers/storms
to develop ahead of and along the frontal boundary. FROPA timing
looks to occur late enough in the afternoon for areas south of
I-10 to still reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. North of I-10, the
forecast reflects high temperatures in the low to upper 70s.
Cooler and drier air filters in behind the front leading to
widespread low temperatures in the 40s over the weekend. We flip
the script from a rainy and warm Saturday to a cool and dry Sunday
with plentiful sunshine alongside high temperatures in the low to
mid 60s. Onshore flow and ridging aloft establishes on Monday
leading to a warming trend going into early next week. We`ll be
back near 70F on Monday, the mid 70s on Tuesday, and the
warming trend doesn`t stop there if you catch my drift...
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
VFR conditions today with mclear skies, but we`ll see some breezy NW
winds around 15g25kt. Speeds should diminish late in the afternoon
and especially overnight as high pressure moves overhead. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Moderate northwesterly flow will persist into the late morning
and may bring a period of slightly low water levels in the bays
during low tide. PETSS guidance predicts quite a few stations
dropping to around -0.5 ft MLLW during low tide just before
sunrise. Small Craft Advisories continue into midday, then will be
followed by caution flags into the late afternoon. Winds and seas
subside going into tonight. Winds veer to the east then southeast
on Thursday with caution flags likely to return late Thursday as
winds/seas briefly increase. With onshore flow increasing moisture
and a period of light winds on Friday night/Saturday morning,
there is potential for sea fog to develop in the nearshore waters
and the bays. Fog may linger in the nearshore waters into daytime
Saturday until a cold front pushes through. The next cold front
pushes offshore on Saturday afternoon leading to a period of
moderate to strong northerly winds and elevated seas prevailing
into Sunday.
Batiste
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025
Elevated fire weather conditions will persist today with breezy NW
winds 15-20mph with some higher gusts and RH`s dropping into the 22-
30% range this afternoon. This isn`t quite as significant as
yesterday when we saw RH`s bottom out in the single digits and
teens. The Texas A&M Forest Service products point toward an overall
low to moderate fire danger across the area today. That said, we`ll
monitor trends and would advise using extreme caution with any
outdoor burning today... especially Matagorda Bay area where fuel
moisture levels will be a bit drier than the rest of the area. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 41 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 43 69 56 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 52 66 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355-
370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon today to 3 PM CST
this afternoon for GMZ335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon CST today through
this afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
Windows wide open today airing out the place. Gorgeous day.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
65 here with a cool crisp breeze, now thats more like true texas spring weather! Loving it!
We’ll be lucky to get one inch of rain this month. The drought is about to get much worse over the next few weeks across the state.
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