February 2025

[DoctorMu]

It looks like several rounds of the back and forth. It's making me dizzy. LOL

Yep. Get used to it for awhile. Hopefully, it doesn't lead to an early and destructive severe season.

[DoctorMu]

Feels like spring not winter

You misspelled "summer."

[DoctorMu]

The front is near Cameron and should be here in a couple of hours. A 30°F difference between CLL and Wichita Falls.

It looks like the FROPA will take its sweet time to reach HOU.

[DoctorMu]

Record busting 89.6°F high IMFY today. Blah.

More seasonal temps are on the way for CLL. HOU and Galveston will be back and forth.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

A peek at the NAEFS/GEFS reveals yet another day with 850mb
temperatures around the MAX percentile, and with most of the area
getting abundant sunshine this afternoon along with favorable
boundary layer mixing...we`re going to heat it up. Portions of the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods will top out in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. Elsewhere, expect high temperatures generally in the low
to mid 80s. This is yet another day of near record high
temperatures, and I wouldn`t be surprised to see College Station
break their record today (see Climate section below). Along the
coast, patchy fog and/or cloud cover will stick around or be nearby
throughout the afternoon so only expecting temperatures to peak into
the 70s. There is some hope on the way in the form of a cold front,
but it`ll be a slow moving one. Elevated winds aloft (LLJ) kept fog
from developing further inland last night/this morning, and there
will be another one (albeit quite a bit weaker) overnight tonight.
As a result, patchy to areas of fog will mainly be a concern along
the coast but it`ll likely make an impact further inland than what
was experienced last night. As we have seen over the past several
days, this fog will be dense at times especially along the immediate
coast and near the bays. Still expecting a rather mild and humid
night with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

By early Sunday morning, a cold front will be on our doorsteps...but
the main issue with it is that it doesn`t have much synoptic forcing
to push it cleanly through. The flow aloft remains zonal through the
short term period with no troughs (at least not yet) to provide a
helping hand. As a result, we`ll see this front take it`s time
pushing through Southeast Texas. Most of the high-res guidance
begins to push the front through on Sunday morning whereas the
deterministic global models begin to push it through in the
afternoon. As you can imagine, this has an impact on Sunday`s high
temperatures. North of the front, which would most likely be
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, expect high temperatures
in the mid 60s. South of the front, expect high temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s. PW values increase up to 1.2" along the
frontal boundary, which is just above the 75th percentile. This is
a weak front, but hey...lift is lift. It could be enough to
generate some spotty rain showers/sprinkles along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. This definitely won`t be enough to cause a
washout of any outdoor activities in the afternoon/evening hours.

The front may make it to the coast Sunday night, so we`re looking at
low temperatures ranging from the low to mid 50s around the
Brazos Valley to the low 60s around the Houston metro area and
southward. Keep in mind that this is all dependent on the
placement of the front. With the front meandering around the
coast, the sea fog that`s been lurking in the nearshore waters
will make its way back into the bays and coastal areas in the late
afternoon/early evening. The fog will be dense at times,
especially along the immediate coast and near the bays.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

Weak stalled front across the southern parts of the area will lift
back north during the day. Mcldy, humid and warmer conditions
will return for locations that saw the brief cool down. Another
front will be tracking its way south from north TX and closer to
the area late Monday night & Tuesday morning. A messy sw flow
aloft, a surge of deeper Gulf moisture and the boundary itself
should allow for some showers and possibly embedded tstms and in
advance of the boundary, and showers/rain behind it during the day
Tuesday. But...this front too looks to put on the breaks and stall
in the region as the high pressure push behind it moves east
toward the Great Lakes versus to the south. It might not be until
Wednesday night until it gets its needed nudge and eventually off
the coast as the next high drops into the Plains. Until it does
so, expect periods of rain along and to its north and intermittent
periods of sea fog along the coast. Seasonal weather will then
return for a day or two followed by a return flow off the Gulf
heading into the weekend. 47

&&

[redneckweather]

Stratton should have stuck to his earlier prediction of winter being over. The yellow jasmine vines are now blooming in the trees and my sweet olives have budded out along with weeds. Come on Spring!

[snowman65]

PV has totally split and multiplied..

[Stratton20]

Im still sticking with my idea of spring getting pushed back somewhat, ensembles overnight, particularly the EPS/ GEPS guidance have trended colder again in the long range with the return of - EPO/NAO blocking, todays GEFS run is trending toward that, and even the operational Euro run this afternoon is continuing that idea, im thinking the polar vortex may have influence over what the pattern may end up looking like over NA starting around the 18th and going beyond that, we will see

[biggerbyte]

Well, as expected, we get a cold front this week. It last a day or two,, then we are back to the upper 70s.

Crazy weather. Spring is definitely fighting mad. It wants in like godzilla wants Tokyo.

[DoctorMu]

Well, as expected, we get a cold front this week. It last a day or two,, then we are back to the upper 70s.

Crazy weather. Spring is definitely fighting mad. It wants in like godzilla wants Tokyo.

Depends where you live. I'm just north of the stalled FROPA.

Houston, especially the coast looking for cold are screwed this week, but maybe in a week.

After zonal movement of the next storm, we have frosts Wednesday, Thursday nights. Possibly a reinforcing cold shot in a week.

Climo laughs at February gardeners in SETX.


Then, prepare for Severe Season.

[biggerbyte]

Well, as expected, we get a cold front this week. It last a day or two,, then we are back to the upper 70s.

Crazy weather. Spring is definitely fighting mad. It wants in like godzilla wants Tokyo.

Depends where you live. I'm just north of the stalled FROPA.

Houston, especially the coast looking for cold are screwed this week, but maybe in a week.

After zonal movement of the next storm, we have frosts Wednesday, Thursday nights. Possibly a reinforcing cold shot in a week.

Climo laughs at February gardeners in SETX.


Then, prepare for Severe Season.

Yes, I realize my statement does not apply to everyone. I'm in the Houston area.

[DoctorMu]

Well, as expected, we get a cold front this week. It last a day or two,, then we are back to the upper 70s.

Crazy weather. Spring is definitely fighting mad. It wants in like godzilla wants Tokyo.

Depends where you live. I'm just north of the stalled FROPA.

Houston, especially the coast looking for cold are screwed this week, but maybe in a week.

After zonal movement of the next storm, we have frosts Wednesday, Thursday nights. Possibly a reinforcing cold shot in a week.

Climo laughs at February gardeners in SETX.


Then, prepare for Severe Season.

Yes, I realize my statement does not apply to everyone. I'm in the Houston area.

Right - but don't think that you can escape a frost or freeze in February with certaintude, even in Houston. Dense air overperforms. Right now we're "protected" by some zonal flow in the mid, upper levels. That could change after the trough from the Rockies moves through mid-week and after another FROPA approaches the area Sunday.

[biggerbyte]

Depends where you live. I'm just north of the stalled FROPA.

Houston, especially the coast looking for cold are screwed this week, but maybe in a week.

After zonal movement of the next storm, we have frosts Wednesday, Thursday nights. Possibly a reinforcing cold shot in a week.

Climo laughs at February gardeners in SETX.


Then, prepare for Severe Season.

Yes, I realize my statement does not apply to everyone. I'm in the Houston area.

Right - but don't think that you can escape a frost or freeze in February with certaintude, even in Houston. Dense air overperforms. Right now we're "protected" by some zonal flow in the mid, upper levels. That could change after the trough from the Rockies moves through mid-week and after another FROPA approaches the area Sunday.

Yes, I'm fully aware. Thank you, none the less.

[Stratton20]

Man the Chiefs are getting absolutely skull dragged! And you love to see it ! Refs cant save them this time

[Cpv17]

Man the Chiefs are getting absolutely skull dragged! And you love to see it ! Refs cant save them this time

Awful game. Not even worth watching.

[kyzsl51]

Man the Chiefs are getting absolutely skull dragged! And you love to see it ! Refs cant save them this time

Im glad no help from the refs so far!

[Ptarmigan]

Depends where you live. I'm just north of the stalled FROPA.

Houston, especially the coast looking for cold are screwed this week, but maybe in a week.

After zonal movement of the next storm, we have frosts Wednesday, Thursday nights. Possibly a reinforcing cold shot in a week.

Climo laughs at February gardeners in SETX.


Then, prepare for Severe Season.

Yes, I realize my statement does not apply to everyone. I'm in the Houston area.

Right - but don't think that you can escape a frost or freeze in February with certaintude, even in Houston. Dense air overperforms. Right now we're "protected" by some zonal flow in the mid, upper levels. That could change after the trough from the Rockies moves through mid-week and after another FROPA approaches the area Sunday.

Freezes happen in February and into March. There have been freezing temperatures in April. There was a cold blast in April 2007.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man the Chiefs are getting absolutely skull dragged! And you love to see it ! Refs cant save them this time

My Eagles won! E A G L E S EAGLES!

I’m bourbon drunk. Time for some more cold!

[Ptarmigan]

PV has totally split and multiplied..

That is way below Absolute Zero.

[jasons2k]

This discussion went from ‘1983 is coming, the sky is falling’ to arguing over whether or not a freeze in late February is unusual or not. Yes, I’m amused.

I cleared out most of my dead annuals over the weekend. I’m preparing for another light freeze or two and that should be it. Nothing special for February.

[biggerbyte]

What a rollercoaster in the temperature department this week.

The battle begins.