February 2025

[Stratton20]

Ill make a bet too haha, im predicting a delayed spring and extended winter due to possible Polar Vortex implications around the 20th, if im wrong about that, ill buy and wear a TU shirt for the day, yeah yall heard that from an Aggie here we shall see!

[biggerbyte]

Anyone else see what's happening? First it was the 13th or 14th. The 20th will move out to la la land and we give spring a big old kiss.

We had our fun. Now hopefully this unusual activity does not extend into spring and summer. We have had enough of that, too.

[DoctorMu]

NAM vs GFS

Yep. Welcome to the battleground. Where's Don? It's in the 50s in Wichita Falls.

[DoctorMu]

Euro and GEM have a few frosts in College Station by the 20th. Nothing extraordinary.

Front. Return flow. Front. Return flow.

[Cpv17]

Anyone else see what's happening? First it was the 13th or 14th. The 20th will move out to la la land and we give spring a big old kiss.

We had our fun. Now hopefully this unusual activity does not extend into spring and summer. We have had enough of that, too.

Unusual activity is fun. That’s what makes me a fan of the weather and gets me hyped up.

[tireman4]

783
FXUS64 KHGX 062152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

The past three days have all featured high temperatures in the low
80s...and we`re already there today...and we`ll be there again on
Friday (and the next day and the next day)...you get the picture.
Just after we had the coldest January on average since 2018, we`re
already on pace this month for the warmest February on record (for
the City of Houston). We`re only 6 days in so it`s way too early to
call that race, but the fact that it`s obtainable is definitely
noteworthy. As of 2:00 PM: Houston/Hobby has already broken the
record for daily high temperatures and Houston/Bush (City of
Houston), College Station, and Galveston have tied their records.
This can all be attributed to 850mb temperatures at their 99th to
MAX percentiles combined with suitable conditions for boundary layer
mixing. As a result, high temperatures in the low 80s will be common
both today and on Friday. Temperatures overnight won`t be much
better either with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper
60s...this is near or above our normal high temperatures by the way.

With the jet stream staying north of us and zonal flow aloft
persisting, we`re not going to see much change in our weather
pattern over the next few days. This means that our daily bouts with
radiation fog and sea fog will continue with conditions gradually
deteriorating from south to north in the evening hours. Visibilities
are expected to be at their lowest in the early morning hours,
especially for areas along the coast. Rain chances are slim, but not
exactly zero either. There will be some intermittent periods of
favorable positioning of an LLJ combined with daytime heating and
isentropic lift that could generate some spotty light rain showers,
but most will not see anything fall from the sky other than
sunshine. While record high temperatures are certainly possible on
Friday in some spots, they`ll be a bit harder to achieve since most
of them are at least 3-4 degrees higher than the records from today.
Either way, it`s going to feel more like it`s late April/early May
rather than early February for at least a few more days.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

A shallow cold front will be making its way into north Tx during
the day Saturday...probably reaching northern parts of SE Tx
Sunday morning. Considering warm conditions in advance and lack
of upper support, this boundary will likely end up stalling and
meandering north-and-south somewhere between I-10 and the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods Sunday night-Wednesday. The question is where.
So many varying deterministic opinions on this matter at this
time, so will generally go with the blended/NBM solutions right
now. That said, I suspect we might see some healthy forecast
temperature busts near/north of where the front decides to
fluctuate on a daily basis. Initially, anticipate some iso-sct
shra near the front, but chances go up Tue-Wed as a strengthening
llj transports some deeper moisture surges in from the Gulf which
also interact with some impulses embedded in the wsw flow aloft.
Closer to the coast, rain chances will be lower, but we`ll
probably still be intermittently dealing with periods of sea fog.
It appears the front will finally get a southward push and offshore
Thursday, but timing of that is also somewhat uncertain depending
on your model of choice. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

As southerly to south-southwesterly winds steadily increase with
sustained winds around 10-15 kt and occasional gusts up to 15-25
kt, ceilings/visibilities will continue to gradually improve.
Expecting all sites to become VFR by the afternoon, but
conditions will begin to degrade again from south to north after
sunset. MVFR conditions followed by IFR then LIFR is expected
tonight as low ceilings build in along with fog developing
especially for sites near and south of I-10. The main window for
the lowest visibilities looks to be between 10Z-16Z, but this
window starts earlier closer to the coast with the onset of sea
fog. After 16Z, we`ll see a gradual improvement to MVFR, then
back to VFR in the afternoon hours.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Though water temperatures have risen over the past week, overall
conditions are still favorable for periods of sea fog...maybe just
not as long lasting as the past several days. Would anticipate fog
redevelopment off the coast this evening pushing into the southern
and central bays overnight. It will likely retreat back into the
Gulf during the late morning hours. Same type of scenario is
anticipated into early next week on a daily basis. Mariners should
be prepared for periods of reduced visibility and associated
navigation hazards. Otherwise, light onshore winds and low seas
will prevail into early next week. A weak, nearly stalled front
may meander around the coast Tuesday and Wednesday...finally
getting a much needed push offshore Thursday. 47


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

High Temperature Records for February 6th:

-College Station: 83F (1890) [RECORD TIED AS OF 2PM]
-Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 82F (2019) [TIED AS OF 2PM]
-Houston/Hobby: 81F (1969) [RECORD BROKEN AS OF 1PM]
-Palacios: 81F (1951)
-Galveston: 77F (1969) [RECORD TIED AS OF 2PM]

High Temperature Records for February 7th:

-College Station: 90F (1891)
-Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 86F (2017)
-Houston/Hobby: 85F (2017)
-Palacios: 80F (1957)
-Galveston: 80F (2017)

Batiste


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 83 68 85 / 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 83 68 83 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 75 63 72 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

[biggerbyte]

Anyone else see what's happening? First it was the 13th or 14th. The 20th will move out to la la land and we give spring a big old kiss.

We had our fun. Now hopefully this unusual activity does not extend into spring and summer. We have had enough of that, too.

Unusual activity is fun. That’s what makes me a fan of the weather and gets me hyped up.

I like snow. Ice is fine too if it doesn't cause death or power outages. Hurricanes and Tornadoes. No, not my cup of tea. I can find much safer things to get my thrill on.

[Ptarmigan]

A lot of uncertainty for sure.

[Cpv17]

Anyone else see what's happening? First it was the 13th or 14th. The 20th will move out to la la land and we give spring a big old kiss.

We had our fun. Now hopefully this unusual activity does not extend into spring and summer. We have had enough of that, too.

Unusual activity is fun. That’s what makes me a fan of the weather and gets me hyped up.

I like snow. Ice is fine too if it doesn't cause death or power outages. Hurricanes and Tornadoes. No, not my cup of tea. I can find much safer things to get my thrill on.

I love weather extremes very much, that is till they do significant damage or claim lives.
My favorite is definitely snow though.

[Cpv17]

A lot of uncertainty for sure.

Pay attention to the mesoscale models. They will do a much better job at capturing the southern push of the cold air.

[Stratton20]

Power out here since 8:30 am due to construction on fm 1463 here in katy, just absolutely stupid

[Cpv17]

Power out here since 8:30 am due to construction on fm 1463 here in katy, just absolutely stupid

Haha my friend cuts hair in that area and just posted it on her FB and said she lost power during the middle of a cut lol

[tireman4]

Today and Tomorrow's Outlook

[DoctorMu]

Wow - the difference between Wichita Falls and College Station weather over the 7 day window is night and day.

Early next week brings more seasonable weather, but chance of rain in CLL and SETX. Why doesn't it rain when it's warm/hot and the cooler weather is sunnier like the east coast FL - VA?... :laughcry

[don]

The cold air damming against the Caprock is in full effect today. I feel pretty confident now that we will have an icing event, I’m just not sure yet how severe it will be.OUN already has a 50% chance of freezing rain here on Wednesday. I can’t wait to see what the mesoscale models show over the weekend.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, we have the potential to see some really crazy weather starting around the 13th. The cold temps invade the area, but only stick around for a couple of days. The heat returns only to do it again. Same scenario each time. Each time a cold front comes down look out for possible storms.

This setup reminds me of that old Christmas cartoon with heatmiser and Jack frost fighting to the death. LOL

[sambucol]

Folks, we have the potential to see some really crazy weather starting around the 13th. The cold temps invade the area, but only stick around for a couple of days. The heat returns only to do it again. Same scenario each time. Each time a cold front comes down look out for possible storms.

This setup reminds me of that old Christmas cartoon with heatmiser and Jack frost fighting to the death. LOL

Are we talking about Arctic air? More than once? I can’t keep up with the weather

[biggerbyte]

It looks like several rounds of the back and forth. It's making me dizzy. LOL

[sambucol]

Same here!

[Brazoriatx979]

Feels like spring not winter