January 2025

[DoctorMu]

Smh... just when you think everything finally lines up right , ...

Boom.

So how often is HRRR wrong?

More times than you might think.

GEM nailed the 2021 Winter Storm forecast. Let's see if the 0z trends.

[tireman4]

Just wondering has this low pressure even formed yet, cause isn't the location of it Matter on where stuff will be?

No. It won’t until later tomorrow.

This is why freaking out with spurious model changes when initial conditions have not even been established yet is a waste of energy and time.

Indeed. I know Andrew and McCheer are not here right now, but Doc and I have been around these parts a long time. We have seen model runs where you see it and say, nope. Lol. Be patient and let's see what happens. I am still confident the HGX folks know what they are doing. I think 3 to 5 inches Houston Metro wide

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if we see thundersnow from this event.

[tireman4]

I don’t hug every model run, that would be rediculous but when you are within 24 hours of said event and the short term models are showing what they are showing, well, not good at all. This is just fact. Please come back here and tell me I am wrong after this STORM is over.

Respectfully, I will not do that. Everyone's input is welcome here. This is a discussion board and weather conversation is what we do here. Also, we can agree to disagree on weather events. I never said you were wrong,I just posted my opinion:) .

[Ptarmigan]

If this events ends up being a freezing rain event, that would be a huge problem in itself. I have seen freezing rain shut down the city. A lot of snow would shut down the city.

[txsnowmaker]

Wow!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

This new short range looks good for Houston, too:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

And this one:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Stratton20]

no changes in the rgem 00z, still clobbers houston with a foot of snow

[davidiowx]

Wow!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Rip76]

Wow!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

button

[txsnowmaker]

New ICON has about half a foot for the city of Houston:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[redneckweather]

Respectfully, screw Houston. lol I’ve lived in Conroe since 1999 and have missed just about every winter weather event with the exception of the 2021 deep freeze. Here we go again. Maybe I rely on the HRRR a bit too hard but it seems to be right about 98% of the time. We will see.

[NWHouston]

New ICON has about half a foot for the city of Houston:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Even this shows a big shift SE and far less snow than a few hours ago

[txsnowmaker]

Get ready Houston! Posted minutes ago on ABC 13:

“We are predicting 3-6" of snow to be likely for most of Houston and Harris County as well as Fort Bend and Chambers Counties. Elsewhere, 1-3" will be common. There are likely to be intense snow bands that set up over parts of Southeast Texas that could drop between 6-12" of snow, but it is impossible to determine where those will occur.”

https://abc13.com/houston-weather-forec ... ons/39346/

[DoctorMu]

No. It won’t until later tomorrow.

This is why freaking out with spurious model changes when initial conditions have not even been established yet is a waste of energy and time.

Indeed. I know Andrew and McCheer are not here right now, but Doc and I have been around these parts a long time. We have seen model runs where you see it and say, nope. Lol. Be patient and let's see what happens. I am still confident the HGX folks know what they are doing. I think 3 to 5 inches Houston Metro wide

Ironically, the confidence begins to wane north if Hwy 1*5 this time. The DP is 9°F up here, so we may or may not get as much as expected originally, but about 2 inches of snow and sleet seems reasonable. More down in Houston. Once it starts precipitating the column will fill quickly.

[DoctorMu]

Get ready Houston! Posted minutes ago on ABC 13:

“We are predicting 3-6" of snow to be likely for most of Houston and Harris County as well as Fort Bend and Chambers Counties. Elsewhere, 1-3" will be common. There are likely to be intense snow bands that set up over parts of Southeast Texas that could drop between 6-12" of snow, but it is impossible to determine where those will occur.”

https://abc13.com/houston-weather-forec ... ons/39346/

*Like*

[dp6]

Houston finally gets a big snow, but there are zero hills to sled down...

...well, you could sled down the bayou sides. And then splash in and die of hypothermia.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m sitting on my back porch enjoying an Eagles win and Bills win! Feels comfortable out here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Houston finally gets a big snow, but there are zero hills to sled down...

...well, you could sled down the bayou sides. And then splash in and die of hypothermia.

That’s why you move to the country. I haven’t celebrated a few hills on our property that drop a 100 feet or so.

[snowman65]

what about Orange/Jefferson counties in all of this?

[Cromagnum]

Would be fitting if all the snow was offshore after years of it all being up north.