January 2025

[Rip76]

https://youtu.be/gEg97XeHVzs?si=xbmQWupw0s54k2cU

[txsnowmaker]

Just as I figured. The HRRR is the one to watch and it suppresses all the snow WAY south to coastal counties and wouldn’t be surprised on the next run that it sends it all offshore. Huge disappointment in the models giving everyone hope on a bunch of snow. Historic? Not even close. Can’t make this crap up.

That shows 4 plus inches in metro Houston. Would indeed be historic.

[jabcwb2]

Well. Damn.

[Nuby33]

I might drive down to the coastline then. One way or another

[Brazoriatx979]

I might drive down to the coastline then. One way or another

I have a air b&b in freeport, but rates will be going up based on the southern trends lol

[tireman4]

All, remember there are still more runs to go. I am not a " rah rah snow guy" ( lol), but one or two runs does not make a firm call. If I am HGX, I leave the forecast as it is. Most of the models are showing fair amounts of frozen precipitation in the Houston Metro area. I realize the mesocycle models are quite accurate, at times. Be patient and let the models run.

[redneckweather]

Jeff will adjust his forecast accordingly after seeing the latest short term models. At this point you can go ahead and throw out the GFS, CMC, Euro etc and concentrate on the short term models, specifically the HRRR. Not good at all if you are north of I-10 and maybe even a little south of that.

[tireman4]

Jeff will adjust his forecast accordingly after seeing the latest short term models. At this point you can go ahead and throw out the GFS, CMC, Euro etc and concentrate on the short term models, specifically the HRRR. Not good at all if you are north of I-10 and maybe even a little south of that.

Well, I respectfully disagree. We are still 22 hours from the event. Many runs left. Patience is the key. As it has been stated, predicting frozen type precipitation is tricky.

[NWHouston]

Just as I figured. The HRRR is the one to watch and it suppresses all the snow WAY south to coastal counties and wouldn’t be surprised on the next run that it sends it all offshore. Huge disappointment in the models giving everyone hope on a bunch of snow. Historic? Not even close. Can’t make this crap up.

But we see this almost every year in some fashion. But since Wxman bought into i started to think maybe.
Curious if the school districts that
Prematurely closed Tues/Wed will now open

[Brazoriatx979]

Lol yall come now..it's still going to happen. You guys live and die by each run
Stop!

[tireman4]

12z FV3

[AtascocitaWX]

Smh... just when you think everything finally lines up right , ...

Boom.

So how often is HRRR wrong?

[SLM87TX]

Just wondering has this low pressure even formed yet, cause isn't the location of it Matter on where stuff will be?

[snowman65]

Instead of banning Tik Tok maybe they should have banned weather models within 72hrs of an approaching winter weather event. Its just not healthy...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just wondering has this low pressure even formed yet, cause isn't the location of it Matter on where stuff will be?

No. It won’t until later tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

12z FV3

Probably close.

[tireman4]

Smh... just when you think everything finally lines up right , ...

Boom.

So how often is HRRR wrong?

More times than you might think.

[DoctorMu]

Just wondering has this low pressure even formed yet, cause isn't the location of it Matter on where stuff will be?

No. It won’t until later tomorrow.

This is why freaking out with spurious model changes when initial conditions have not even been established yet is a waste of energy and time.

[redneckweather]

I don’t hug every model run, that would be rediculous but when you are within 24 hours of said event and the short term models are showing what they are showing, well, not good at all. This is just fact. Please come back here and tell me I am wrong after this STORM is over.

[Ptarmigan]

Just as I figured. The HRRR is the one to watch and it suppresses all the snow WAY south to coastal counties and wouldn’t be surprised on the next run that it sends it all offshore. Huge disappointment in the models giving everyone hope on a bunch of snow. Historic? Not even close. Can’t make this crap up.

That shows 4 plus inches in metro Houston. Would indeed be historic.

That would be on the level of 1895, 1960, and 2004. I am not suggesting it will happen again this week.