January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:17 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:51 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:31 pm The 700mb 0°F line moves offshore Sunday and stays offshore in SETX until Wednesday afternoon. No warm nose. We'll have a deep, dense layer of cold in place. GFS, CMC, Euro keep the low just offshore.

Mid January - It's a good setup for less freezing rain, more snow. Fingers crossed.
Folks just might get their wish with this one (especially up here). I would be very happy. Might even see thundersnow again.
I’m turning on my lightning detector on my app to possibly chase the bands depending on how far away they are.
That would be awesome. We could send a video to Cantore.
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snowman65
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:19 pm
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:41 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:35 pm WPC added a heavy snow risk for the majority of se texas, i dont recall even seeing that in 2021, this could possibly be a historic event
Why wouldn't it be further south? I'm sure we're in the same postion to get some decent amounts also
Now, the snow risk was all north of Hwy 1*5 in 2021. Even on the CPC.

I've never seen the WPC weigh in with Heavy Snow before in CLL and SETX. 8-)
Ive never even heard of this map until today lol
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:54 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:19 pm Seems like this upcoming event has a much higher ceiling than others we’ve had.
It does. That’s why I’ve been both concerned and excited for over a week. A big snowstorm down here will be beautiful, amazing and awesome…but the power situation concerns me.
Snow weighs a lot less than ice on a power line.

Temps will be at least 10°F warmer than Feb. 2021. Below freezing but not ridiculous. Another reason for a potential for heavy snow. There's less of a chance of dry air throwing the column of precip. into verga.

No warm nose, please
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DoctorMu
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:22 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:19 pm
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:41 pm

Why wouldn't it be further south? I'm sure we're in the same postion to get some decent amounts also
Now, the snow risk was all north of Hwy 1*5 in 2021. Even on the CPC.

I've never seen the WPC weigh in with Heavy Snow before in CLL and SETX. 8-)
Ive never even heard of this map until today lol
I usually consult only in severe season.
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sambucol
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Not snow related, but I sure wish we had a like button here!
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tireman4
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It is times like these that I miss Dan. He would be loving this!
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snowman65
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sambucol wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:46 pm Not snow related, but I sure wish we had a like button here!
"LIKE"
Brazoriatx979
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:47 pm It is times like these that I miss Dan. He would be loving this!
With his coconut rum! Miss that guy!
Cpv17
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:41 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:35 pm WPC added a heavy snow risk for the majority of se texas, i dont recall even seeing that in 2021, this could possibly be a historic event
Why wouldn't it be further south? I'm sure we're in the same postion to get some decent amounts also
Personally, I wouldn’t worry too much about that. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. You’re close enough to it to where you should still see some decent action.
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tireman4
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The HGX AFD Afternoon is late.....
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don
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:47 pm It is times like these that I miss Dan. He would be loving this!
Agree! 🙂
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snowman65
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Im almost afraid to check the GFS. You know how it likes to zap away everything.
Brazoriatx979
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 4:16 pm Im almost afraid to check the GFS. You know how it likes to zap away everything.
I think we're leaning towards the euro more at this point. Plus we're fixing to stop looking at globals and looking at meso scale models
Cpv17
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Well the GFS continues its warm bias.
Brazoriatx979
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 4:48 pm Well the GFS continues its warm bias.
I think we can start to ignore the gfs now
txsnowmaker
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GFS took away snow for the city of Houston. Typical.
Brazoriatx979
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:07 pm GFS took away snow for the city of Houston. Typical.
I wouldn't worry about it..it's confused as always
Cpv17
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:07 pm GFS took away snow for the city of Houston. Typical.
18z Euro should be running soon.
txsnowmaker
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:10 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:07 pm GFS took away snow for the city of Houston. Typical.
I wouldn't worry about it..it's confused as always
Agreed, it’s just frustrating because it’s been consistent with snow for quite a few consecutive runs until this one.
Cpv17
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:14 pm
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:10 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:07 pm GFS took away snow for the city of Houston. Typical.
I wouldn't worry about it..it's confused as always
Agreed, it’s just frustrating because it’s been consistent with snow for quite a few consecutive runs until this one.
The mesoscale models will soon be more use to us than the globals anyway.
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