January 2025

[Brazoriatx979]

Looks like we have our own Brent in here..sheesh

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well it is 4:30am. The ICON took a dump on all of the fun it was showing earlier. The GFS continues to give Dallas the action.

Oh well.. Eye candy melts too

The 6z & 18z ICON only goes out to 120 hours. The 12z and 0z ICON go out to 180 hours. We’ll have to wait till around 11am for the 12z ICON.

Lol yep.

[tireman4]

Just a heads up from this maybe Winter frolic. I am seeing readings that indicate possible severe weather on Sunday. Be aware

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just a heads up from this maybe Winter frolic. I am seeing readings that indicate possible severe weather on Sunday. Be aware

Well that would all but guarantee snow

[biggerbyte]

Well it is 4:30am. The ICON took a dump on all of the fun it was showing earlier. The GFS continues to give Dallas the action.

Oh well.. Eye candy melts too

The 6z & 18z ICON only goes out to 120 hours. The 12z and 0z ICON go out to 180 hours. We’ll have to wait till around 11am for the 12z ICON.

Yup. I must have been brain dead.
Not bad for a 61 year old man with cancer. I'm supposed to be in bed. LOL

[redneckweather]

Give me the CMC and call it a day.

[biggerbyte]

Give me the CMC and call it a day.

Yup. The CMC looks tasty this morning.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well it is 4:30am. The ICON took a dump on all of the fun it was showing earlier. The GFS continues to give Dallas the action.

Oh well.. Eye candy melts too

The 6z & 18z ICON only goes out to 120 hours. The 12z and 0z ICON go out to 180 hours. We’ll have to wait till around 11am for the 12z ICON.

Yup. I must have been brain dead.
Not bad for a 61 year old man with cancer. I'm supposed to be in bed. LOL

Man, I hope you beat it brother! Prayers for you and your family.

[biggerbyte]

At any rate, as Sunday approaches it's going to be a nail biting weather watch. Excepting any winter weather chat, Sunday may be quite stormy. Many of us have been members of this forum for many years. We have seen a lot of events and possible events. I think that all would say that after a year like 2024 we deserve a change. Here is hoping it isn't ice.

[biggerbyte]

The 6z & 18z ICON only goes out to 120 hours. The 12z and 0z ICON go out to 180 hours. We’ll have to wait till around 11am for the 12z ICON.

Yup. I must have been brain dead.
Not bad for a 61 year old man with cancer. I'm supposed to be in bed. LOL

Man, I hope you beat it brother! Prayers for you and your family.

Thank you very much. I'll be okay. I've had a rough couple of days, but life moves on. A big snow sure would be nice. We all deserve that.

[jasons2k]

Give me the CMC and my 7-8 inches and I’ll give Jason an early Spring and jet off for Spring skiing in Montana.

I would gladly take that trade. A big snow with temps staying above 28 is just fine with me.

[Brazoriatx979]

Little warm down here

[mcheer23]

ICON a cold 35 degree rain
GFS takes the coastal low too far north for snow
CMC still has snow… although not as much…freezing rain for south of I-10 as well

[Brazoriatx979]

12z gfs...rain for us

[DoctorMu]

The most likely scenario is a severe threat in the eastern and northern portion of the Houston area. There could be severe weather in CLL along the front, but I expect the cold air to catch up fast.

The Wednesday - Friday potential for wintry mischief is going to be a nail biter...especially below Hwy ***. I expect a lot of flip flopping of the models over the next few days.



921
FXUS64 KHGX 031132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 359 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025

Bit of a dreary morning is expected this morning with overcast
skies, patchy fog, and drizzle/mist along the coast. Conditions
will improve through the late morning into this afternoon as
ridging aloft scatters out the overcast skies. The main story of
the short term will be the above normal temperatures that are
expected to persist through Saturday night (though stick around
for the Long Term for a drastic change with regards to that). High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 60s to low 70s,
and then low to mid 70s on Saturday (with the exception of the
Piney Woods which will have some cooler air filtering in from the
NE keeping them in the 60s). Overnight lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 50s along and south of I-10, then upper 40s to low
50s to the north. Strong southerly flow develops Saturday night
pumping moisture and higher temperatures into SE Texas. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 60s for much of the region - which
is around 20-25 degrees above normal.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2025

Sunday will be breezy as a low level jet strengthens overhead. It
will also be our warmest day for this forecast period in response
to increased low level moisture transport and effective WAA
across Southeast TX. We can expect the high temperatures to range
between the low to mid 70s over areas north of I-10 and the mid
to upper 70s for areas along and south of I-10. An upper level
trough is set to move across the Southern Plains early Sunday and
an associated arctic cold front will quickly move across central TX
Sunday morning. This will provide increased lift over the local
area for the development of showers and thunderstorms across
Sunday morning. As the front races towards the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region Sunday morning, expect these showers and storms
to intensify, in particular those near and along the frontal
boundary. Some storms could become strong to severe. In addition,
forecast soundings suggest SFC-6km shear of 35-45 kts around noon
and just ahead of the frontal passage which may help in the
development of some storms with rotation, in particular for the
counties east of I-45 and north of I-45, where SPC has placed a
Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms. A Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) was placed over the rest of Southeast TX, except
Jackson county. The overall timing of the front has not shifted
much, with it quickly moving into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area mid day and pushing off the coasts near dusk. Once the front
moves through, gusty winds and a much drier and colder airmass
will follow behind it and quickly decrease the local temperatures
overnight. So much so, that many locations will see lows near or
below freezing, roughly between 25-35 degrees F, by sunrise on
Monday. To add to this, strong gusty winds will make it feel about
10 degrees colder than what the thermostats will register. We are
currently seeing that apparent temperatures may range from the
teens to the low 20s across most of Southeast TX.

Conditions will remain breezy and cold Monday, with highs only
rising into the mid to low 40s north of I-10 and the mid to upper
40s elsewhere (but winds will still make it feel a bit colder that
these values). Strong CAA will continue into Monday night,
dropping low temperatures even more, and resulting in low
temperatures in the low 20s over the northern Piney Woods region,
the mid 20s to low 30s over the rest of the inland portions, and
the mid to upper 30s along the coast. This will possibly be our
coldest night of the week. However, cold conditions may continue
into the rest of the work week as another upper level trough moves
across the Plains on Wednesday. A coastal low will develop near
the lower TX coast during the second part of the week and may
bring in a few showers. Thus, we will need to keep an eye on our
precipitation chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning and
again Thursday night into Friday morning given that surface
temperatures may be near or below freezing. Some minor adjustments
may occur in the forecast during the next few days, regardless,
please make the proper preparations for the cold weather. Remember
to dress in layers, bring in or cover sensitive plants, insulate
pipes if needed, and bring pets indoors.

24

[Cpv17]

Plenty of time still. Globals are typically too warm anyway.

[DoctorMu]

12z gfs...rain for us

As they say: "If you don't like this GFS run, just wait until the next one!"

[DoctorMu]

Plenty of time still. Globals are typically too warm anyway.

Cold usually overperforms. Getting the moisture in place with air that is already cold is usually the limiting factor.

[DoctorMu]

The Ensembles are hanging in there.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian hanging in as well.