November 2024

[DoctorMu]

Endless summer barrels into November ...with a chance of severe weather and could it be the Godot FROPA?

Potential unsettled late in the week as tropical moisture slaps back our precious FROPA. So, enjoy Tuesday and Wednesday!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

With mostly E/NE winds in place across the FA, the bulk of the rains
have remained off the coast today. And with the BKN/OVC deck persist-
ing, there hasn`t been much by way of daytime heating. But some very
isolated activity (mainly SW counties) are still possible the remain-
der this afternoon. The cloudy skies will continue tonight with lows
from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the CWA.

Onshore winds are set to slowly resume overnight as the surface high
over the Northern Plains shifts further east. This will then help to
draw deeper moisture back into SE TX along with increasing POPs. WAA
type showers should be developing across our nearshore waters during
the early Sat morning hours before moving into coastal locations at/
around sunrise. Progged PWs from 1.8 to 2" should help to fuel scat-
tered showers/isolated thunderstorms tomorrow as activity spreads in
from the coast. These rains are expected to occur mainly during day-
time hours...then decreasing by tomorrow evening. Highs tomorrow are
going to be mainly in the lower 80s with lows tomorrow night once a-
gain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

The arrival of the holiday season has quickly come...still waiting
to say the same thing for our next cold front {insert eye roll here}.
The start of the long-term period will continue to feature warm
temperatures with highs in the 80s. Surface low pressure in Mexico
and high pressure over the eastern CONUS has SE Texas sandwiched in
between, creating a tightening pressure gradient over our area. This
will result in breezy/gust south to southeasterly winds Sunday into
Monday.

As a result of the elevated onshore flow, deep tropical moisture
will remain overhead (PW values near 90th percentile through
Tuesday) and will allow for showers/thunderstorms Sunday through
Tuesday. The best opportunity for showers and storms will be Monday
night into Tuesday morning with the arrival of the next FROPA.

Currently SPC has the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas in a 15%
chance of severe weather for Monday into Tuesday morning. The cold
front should produce a linear structure, aka a squall line as it
moves through SE Texas. With these squall lines winds tend to be the
main hazard. We will be monitoring the potential for severe weather
and associated hazards over the next couple of days.

In addition to the severe weather threat, WPC has placed the same
area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. With
the abundant tropical moisture overhead these storms do have the
potential to produce heavy downpours and result in isolated
instances of flash flooding.

With the FROPA expect day time highs to cool into the 70s (to around
80 S of I-10 and W of I-45) for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Nighttime lows Monday night through the end of the week will be in
the 50s to low 60s.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast in the
wake of the FROPA through the end of the work week as the return of
onshore flow and tropical moisture interact with another
trough/upper level low that deepens into the Four Corners/Rocky
Mountains.

Adams

[DoctorMu]

Off topic, had to go to the ER today for a deep bite wound to the neck from by our dog ( it was an bad accident) im all good, but recovery will take at a while, at least the weather is cooperating

Damn, that’s gonna leave a mark. Hope that heals up well for you.

Sorry to hear that, stratton. We stick to Labrador Retrievers. Soft mouths!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu thanks! And yeah it was a freak accident as my dog is a sweet heart, loves everyone! I just made a very stupid mistake that nearly ended up costing my life, doctor said the bite missed my major artery by an inch or so, definitely gotta be carefully with your doggos, but golden retrievers are very awesome

[Pas_Bon]

I went to bed late last night and the forecast said 67% chance of rain today - total of 0.34” in League City forecasted.

I awaken this morning to learn it is now 100% with a forecast total of 1.74”!!!

Did I miss a Tropical Depression somewhere? Lol

I will not complain one bit.

[don]

The HRRR and other mesoscale models have been consistently showing these hefty rainfall amounts up here. Good for the drought, but im a little concerned about moderate urbanized street flooding as i live in an urban/suburban area.

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[Cpv17]

I went to bed late last night and the forecast said 67% chance of rain today - total of 0.34” in League City forecasted.

I awaken this morning to learn it is now 100% with a forecast total of 1.74”!!!

Did I miss a Tropical Depression somewhere? Lol

I will not complain one bit.

I don’t see anything on the models to justify a 100% chance of rain today. Maybe 50 or 60%.

[Cromagnum]

That mess between Uvalde and San Antonio needs to get over here to Austin.

[don]

Scattered storms moving in from the gulf.

[Stratton20]

You love to see that! Hopefully models trend more south with the next cut off upper level low

[Cpv17]

You love to see that! Hopefully models trend more south with the next cut off upper level low

Yeah, you can say that again.

[DoctorMu]

This liquid falling from the skies. Did The Elders have a name for it?

[Rip76]

This liquid falling from the skies. Did The Elders have a name for it?

Haha.

[kyzsl51]

Depressing I really thought we would have a nice cool fall front with a few days with lows in 40s and highs in the 60s by now.. Doesnt look likely in the next couple weeks either

[davidiowx]

Picked up 4.35” so far today. Add the 3.5” from last Thursday and that’s a haul for me. Especially since I can’t remember the last measurable rain I’ve had since Beryl. What a terrible past couple of months.

Now just need some Arctic blast please.

[user:null]

The rain has been great. Although I don't really see the need for an arctic blast (because vegetation still has to recover from any stress regarding the antecedent dry period).

[Cpv17]

The rain has been great. Although I don't really see the need for an arctic blast (because vegetation still has to recover from any stress regarding the antecedent dry period).

No thanks to any cold weather. Average temps is about as cold as I’ll want.

[Stratton20]

No thank you, i want the bitter stuff from siberia lol

[don]

It was very stormy here overnight with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. One supercell that went over the city last night produced a tornado with a debris signature once it passed the city.Almost at 4 inches of rain here now, with more rounds of storms to go through tomorrow.

[Cpv17]

Don’t see much of a chance of rain for today. Tomorrow night into Tuesday look pretty wet though.

[don]

More heavy rain on the way to SE Texas on Tuesday when the front moves in.