November 2024

[tireman4]

What shall we see? Rain? Heat? Cold?

[Stratton20]

Im hearing november could start warm but get progressively colder,

[DoctorMu]

That pretty much describes every November.

If we can keep the DP under 70°F, preferable under 60°F, November is usually my favorite weather month in CLL...unless the winter has wintry mischief.

[Pas_Bon]

If I see 90°, I’m suing

[tireman4]

November Normals

[Ptarmigan]

I would not rule out severe weather in November.

[Pas_Bon]

I would not rule out severe weather in November.

Especially with how relatively hot we have been. If we get a strong frontal boundary to meet up with this hot-*** air and there is a southerly flow ahead......Boom.

[snowman65]

thoughts on mid november? Our daughter is getting married on the 17th in Brenham. Thanks

[DoctorMu]

Probably won't be worse than October or September!

At least the DPs have been lower lately 50s or below.

[Stratton20]

Larry Cosgrove has a different opinion on early november, saying typoon activity could recurve east of Japan and force a -EPO / -AO combination in NA leading to a colder first week or two of november

[DoctorMu]

It's inevitably going to be cooler in November.

Sun. Angle.

[Pas_Bon]

It's inevitably going to be cooler in November.

Sun. Angle.

Not if the government controls the angle.
Kidding.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, as we enter November let's watch the gulf. I'll leave it there for now.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 011130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

We`ve officially made it to November and we`re still wishing for
another cold front to make it feel like fall again, but at least we
still have rain chances in the forecast. This is probably a good
time to mention that College Station tied their record high
temperature (90F) on Halloween yesterday. Patchy fog has already
made an appearance early this morning due to the rainfall received
across the area on Thursday combined with light winds.
Theoretically, the low-level clouds building in should inhibit the
fog from becoming widespread and/or dense. Either way, any fog that
develops will dissipate by the mid-morning hours.

The rainfall forecast for today is a bit tricky to say the least as
most of the latest model guidance depicts scenarios of nothing to
isolated showers to widespread showers/storms...so let`s take a deep
dive and see if we can make some sense out of this! Moisture will
definitely not be an issue as PW values remain in the 1.7-2.0" range
especially near and south of I-10, but the higher end of that
moisture doesn`t overlap with an increasingly diffuse frontal
boundary currently situated across the Brazos Valley. Another strike
against the rainfall potential is a slight increase in 500mb heights
as upper level high pressure expands slightly westward through the
Gulf of Mexico, which will aid in increasing subsidence aloft. The
capping inversion aloft will be weak, but still noticeable. Last but
not least, there will be a weakish jet streak to our northwest with
higher winds upstream than downstream...so there will be a bit of
speed convergence at play as well. As a result, I leaned towards the
isolated showers/storms scenario with the greater coverage occuring
south of I-10.

On the plus side, the abundance of moisture will leave us with
mostly cloudy skies so we`ll only see high temperatures in the low
to mid 80s. Temperatures during the overnight hours will only bottom
out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances increase on Saturday
as we lose out on the subsidence aloft with an approaching upper
level trough from the western CONUS. That`ll be combined with an
increase in PVA with more shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly
flow aloft pushing through and the tail-end of a LLJ stretching into
the Brazos Valley. Long story short, conditions on Saturday will be
more supportive for an increased coverage in rainfall. Rain chances
do taper off going into Saturday night, but it remains to be seen if
the strengthening LLJ or increasing upper level convergence wins
out. As far as temperatures go, it`ll be a wash-rinse-repeat (pun
intended) of Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Sunday and Monday will be warm early November days (highs in the 80s)
with breezy/gusty south to southeast winds. These winds will not let
up Sunday night resulting in lows in the low to mid 70s for much of
the area. With deep tropical moisture in place, there will be possible
showers/thunderstorms Sunday, Sunday night and Monday, but better chances/
coverage come Monday night through Tuesday morning when the next cold
front moves across the area. This front will help to cool the area back
down Monday night through Wednesday night with lows generally back down
into the 50s/60s and highs in the 70s. At this time, the front does
not look like it`s going to make it too far off the coast, and this
could result in some lingering rain chances for part of the area (generally
higher along and east of the I-45 corridor and along and off the coast).
After a slightly warmer Thursday, temperatures look to cool back down
for the end of the week.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

A mixture of MVFR and IFR ceilings will continue through 18Z
before ceilings lift back to VFR. Also dealing with decreased
visibilities at LBX and a couple of sites hovering just above 6SM
(IAH and GLS). Expect easterly winds today generally around 10
knots. Spotty rain showers are possible throughout the day, but
the coverage looks to be too sporadic to include any mentions of
it in the TAFs other than LBX and GLS. Winds trend downward after
sunset as another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings filter in late
tonight. The cloud cover should inhibit patchy fog from becoming
widespread, but it`ll still be possible at the usual trouble spots
(e.g. LBX). Saturday looks to feature a higher coverage of rain
showers and potentially some isolated to scattered thunderstorms
as well.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Mainly light east winds and lows seas can be expected today.
Southeast winds and seas will be on the increase going into the
weekend and on into the start of next week in response to a
tightening gradient. Caution flags and advisories will likely be
needed. There will also be an increasing risk of rip currents.
Showers and maybe some thunderstorms will be possible almost every
day with better coverage possibly coming Monday night through
Tuesday morning when a cold front moves into the area. North to
northeast winds can be expected behind this front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 70 84 71 / 30 30 60 20
Houston (IAH) 84 73 83 72 / 40 30 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 75 / 30 50 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42

[Stratton20]

Off topic, had to go to the ER today for a deep bite wound to the neck from by our dog ( it was an bad accident) im all good, but recovery will take at a while, at least the weather is cooperating

[don]

Off topic, had to go to the ER today for a deep bite wound to the neck from by our dog ( it was an bad accident) im all good, but recovery will take at a while, at least the weather is cooperating

Oh no sorry to hear that I hope you feel better soon.

[mcheer23]

Not really seeing anything to indicate a big cool down.
Highs in the 70s are likely after a cool front next week....maybe some lows near 50.

[don]

The weekends going to be a complete washout up here. Models show multiple storm complexes moving through and training over the same areas. A flood watch was also just issued. There also could be a severe weather outbreak Sunday and Monday in the plains depending on how much instability is available. Severe weather may be as far south as the northern half of SE Texas with Mondays storm. And then after this weekend it could be rinsed and repeat next weekend as another potent cutoff low digs into the desert southwest again.

[Cpv17]

Off topic, had to go to the ER today for a deep bite wound to the neck from by our dog ( it was an bad accident) im all good, but recovery will take at a while, at least the weather is cooperating

Damn, that’s gonna leave a mark. Hope that heals up well for you.

[DoctorMu]

The weekends going to be a complete washout up here. Models show multiple storm complexes moving through and training over the same areas. A flood watch was also just issued. There also could be a severe weather outbreak Sunday and Monday in the plains depending on how much instability is available. Severe weather may be as far south as the northern half of SE Texas with Mondays storm. And then after this weekend it could be rinsed and repeat next weekend as another potent cutoff low digs into the desert southwest again.

Pieces of April. Yeah, there could be some severe weather east of Wichita Falls.

Dang - it looks like winter out there - low stratus clouds... yet, it's 81°F and humid. lol

https://youtu.be/Fd1rYLcteYg?si=6jcAkfDAkX5uDG_d