October Weather Discussion. When Will Rain Return?

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tireman4
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Just to give folks a taste of REAL Fall weather. :)


October Temperature and Precipitation Normals (1971-2000)
and Extremes for Houston (1889-2009)
(last updated 10/27/09)

-------------- TEMPERATURE ------------------- ----- PRECIPITATION -----
NORMAL RECORD LOW RECORD HIGH RECORD CUMULATIVE PCPN
MAX MIN MAX YEAR MAX MIN YEAR MIN PCPN DAILY YEARLY
---------------------------------------------- -------------------------
1 86 64 99 1900 64 1958 44 1984 78 1927 4.62 1913 0.15 35.61
2 86 64 97 1938 66 1958 47 1984 79 1986 2.25 1995 0.30 35.76
3 85 64 95 1994 72 1961 45 1975 80 1986 3.24 1949 0.45 35.91
4 85 64 95 2002 67 1965 43 1975 78 2002 3.60 1919 0.60 36.06
5 85 63 94 2006 63 1932 41 1975 77 1951 2.90 1960 0.75 36.21

6 85 62 94 1928 65 2001 44 1975 78 2009 4.42 1930 0.90 36.36
7 85 62 95 1956 65 2000 46 1889 78 1962 5.76 1949 1.05 36.51
8 84 61 96 1962 50 2000 42 1952 82 2009 2.07 1909 1.20 36.66
9 84 61 93 2007* 53 2000 40 1976 79 1962 3.60 2003 1.35 36.81
10 84 61 94 1962 64 2000 43 1908 78 1962 3.50 1899 1.50 36.96

11 84 61 94 1962 64 2009 44 1891 77 1962 3.02 2001 1.65 37.11
12 83 60 96 1991 62 1982 42 1977 77 1962 3.37 1982 1.80 37.26
13 83 60 94 1991 58 1986 36 1977 76 1985 2.55 1958 1.95 37.41
14 83 60 92 1954 64 2002 40 1977 78 2009* 4.91 1906 2.10 37.56
15 82 59 92 2009* 65 1896 40 1978 76 1962 4.87 2007 2.25 37.71

16 82 59 92 1989 66 1903 41 1893 74 1994 5.17 2006 2.39 37.85
17 82 59 93 1895 67 1919 40 1977 77 1998 4.31 1994 2.53 37.99
18 82 58 96 1895 60 1989 39 1978 79 2004 4.04 1998 2.67 38.13
19 81 58 94 2004 61 1999 36 1989 78 2004 1.23 1998 2.81 38.27
20 81 57 93 2004 61 1976 32 1989 77 2004 2.54 1993 2.95 38.41

21 81 57 93 2004 65 1993 33 1976 78 1897 2.40 1890 3.09 38.55
22 80 56 91 2004 63 1911 41 1898 75 2004 3.70 2008 3.23 38.69
23 80 56 91 1988 59 1981 40 1996 74 1919 3.79 1970 3.37 38.83
24 80 56 91 1931 61 1981 39 1908 74 1997 2.13 1949 3.51 38.97
25 79 55 91 1950 61 1972 39 1980 75 1939 9.25 1984 3.65 39.11

26 79 55 90 1991 53 1957 39 1892 75 1939 2.43 2009 3.79 39.25
27 79 55 91 1995 52 1936 36 1898 76 1939 2.72 1897 3.93 39.39
28 78 54 90 1991 53 1976 36 1898 76 1991 8.04 2002 4.07 39.53
29 78 54 90 1991 54 1980 39 1910 73 2004 2.38 1982 4.21 39.67
30 78 54 89 2004* 50 1993 33 1917 76 1961 5.30 1907 4.35 39.81

31 77 54 88 2004* 47 1925 29 1993 76 1972 3.84 1909 4.50 39.96

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_oct
TexasMetBlake
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Looking at the latest models, we have another, even stronger cold front scheduled for this Sunday. By looking at the 850 temps, there is a good chance many of us will plunge well down into the 40s with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 by Monday. Here's a look at what HGX had to say...

ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND WHICH ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS/THICKNESS
VALUES BEHIND SATURDAY`S FRONT SUGGESTING AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THE ONGOING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
STEER ANY STORM(S) THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WELL EAST OF
TEXAS.
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tireman4
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WOO HOOO WOO HOO....I just love it.
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sambucol
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Awesome!! Bring it on!!!
ticka1
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This weather is absolutely refreshing and shields us from the tropics! Season of renewal!
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sambucol
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ticka1 wrote:This weather is absolutely refreshing and shields us from the tropics! Season of renewal!
Amen, sister! This is where I read it and posted it on FB :D
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Well the front is still on pace to come through on Sunday. Look for an even cooler airmass to settle into the region with lows in the low to mid 50s area wide. Looking ahead at hour 192-216, a significant front is expected as a 1038 mb high (per 12z gfs) slides in behind a cold ULL. October 8-9 could be very chilly and rainy around here with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.
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According to GFS, after this weekend, we should be at or below normal temperature for highs & lows at least for the first 2 week of oct., as a favorable pattern for surging cold air from canada has set up across the eastern half of the US.
biggerbyte
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Now that's what I'm talking about. Won't that be nice? I'm so ready for a peaceful and SNOWY winter...:)

This one is for you, Dan. We all miss you so. I can't imagine a winter without you. :(

We could very well have a decent shot at winter weather this season.
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biggerbyte wrote:We could very well have a decent shot at winter weather this season.
Don't get your hopes up...

La Nina's in the past have had relatively cool falls, just to turn much warmer as winter begins. With such a negative ENSO event expected this year, I'd say we have a decent shot of 90 degrees in January
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I know.. Just giving the newbies something to wish for. It has been so ho hum for the hurricane season. I'm hoping we do not get the usual that you spoke of.
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Mr. T wrote:
biggerbyte wrote:We could very well have a decent shot at winter weather this season.
Don't get your hopes up...

La Nina's in the past have had relatively cool falls, just to turn much warmer as winter begins. With such a negative ENSO event expected this year, I'd say we have a decent shot of 90 degrees in January

Sounds good to me. At the same time though when and if the cold comes here it is going to come hard. Many La Nina years have records for some of the coldest weather but at the same time the lack of moisture affiliated with that is going to make it really hard for any frozen precip.
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biggerbyte
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We'll I'm just going to combine the two seasons and bring frigid temps with a tropical storm. That's obviously impossible, but what a hoot that would be... No?

Just the prospects of even just a snow flake or two excites me. Not to mention that cold weather is so relaxing. I know wxman would disagree with that..

Bring on the BRRR!!! ;)
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00z gfs suggests a lot of low 50's-mid 40's.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Mr. T
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With the strong front this weekend, methinks we'll be diving further in the upper 40s around the Houston area monday and tuesday morning of next week... Thickness values, 850 temps, and dewpoints will all be much lower with this front compared to the last front. For instance, the GFS is now predicting dewpoints falling into the 30s around the area. That would be over 10 degrees cooler with dewpoints than this front... Considering IAH reached 57 with outlying areas in the low 50s during this cool front, I see no reason why things won't be around 10 degrees cooler at the minimum with the next front. If perfect radiational cooling conditions exist again (which it looks like they well as the trough pushes eastward), 47 or 48 could be expected next week.
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Mr. T wrote: With such a negative ENSO event expected this year, I'd say we have a decent shot of 90 degrees in January
Don't say that too loud 'someone' might hear. cough cough.
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tireman4
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Baseballdude2915 wrote:
Mr. T wrote: With such a negative ENSO event expected this year, I'd say we have a decent shot of 90 degrees in January
Don't say that too loud 'someone' might hear. cough cough.
You do not want anyone "channelling" Dan for a snowstorm after hearing 90 degree temperatures in January....LOL
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What would hunting season, halloween and the holidays be without cool weather? I actually like this set up for the fall and early winter. Cool/cold for the holiday season and then the blow torch is put on after the new year. Like I have said for many of years, after deer hunting season and the holidays, you can have the cold. This will work out perfect!!
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I am pretty happy with the past 3-4 snow/ice events in the past 6 years. WAY above historical occurrences. This is for another time. Lets get back on topic.

12z GFS has backed off a little on the intensity of the cold. Should be a few degrees cooler than the last front and feel like it too, but from what it looks like, this won't be the front to get us into the 40s. Its still early in the game though.
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The ECMWF has come in strong with much lower dew points and a secondary back door reinforcing shot of cool Canadian Air for the weekend. If that model verifies, we could see some night time lows in the Upper 40's and daytime highs struggling to hit the 70's.
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