Stratton, I can never find where the EPS is on WeatherBell. Where did you find it on the site?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2024 1:27 am 00z EPS , oh boy thats a strong signal, and we are talking about inside of 10 days as well
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
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Pas_Bon go to the maps section, scroll down to ensembles and its the ECMMWF ENS, thats the EPS, I just call it EPS because thats what its called on tropical tidbits lol
GFS giveth and taketh away.
On the 18z the TX is gone but a FROPA arrives instead.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_50.png
I'd take that!
On the 18z the TX is gone but a FROPA arrives instead.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_50.png
I'd take that!
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Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Aug 04, 2024 7:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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if there was a front coming down, that system would likely get pulled into texas instead of mexico
There is a ridge in between. The strength of the TS could make a play...but I would still see the TS merge with the front and slide toward LA or MS IF the weak ridge breaks down.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2024 6:39 pm if there was a front coming down, that system would likely get pulled into texas instead of mexico
Best of both worlds maybe. A front comes down to knock the humidity and heat down some and pushes any systems east.
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Big yikes, some of the hurricane models already have strengthening system out of this wave near the yucatan at day 5, those would be HAFS- A and B, i dont like seeing that
Last thing Houston area needs.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2024 8:15 pm Big yikes, some of the hurricane models already have strengthening system out of this wave near the yucatan at day 5, those would be HAFS- A and B, i dont like seeing that
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Ptarmigan no kidding, I dont trust centerpoint, definitely dont think SE Texas could handle a more powerful hurricane hitting our neck of the woods
If another hurricane hits Houston areas, it would be much worse. Many fallen trees are still on the ground. Some are blocking drainage. Many powerlines are not cleared of trees.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2024 8:37 pm Ptarmigan no kidding, I dont trust centerpoint, definitely dont think SE Texas could handle a more powerful hurricane hitting our neck of the woods
Hurricane Debby.
Isn’t that what happened with Hurricane Ike?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2024 6:39 pm if there was a front coming down, that system would likely get pulled into texas instead of mexico
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sambucol IKE i believe was steered by a ridge sitting over the Eastern US
This wave has yet to coalesce and we are approximately 9 days out from any potential landfall.
That said, I am concerned somewhat about the synoptic setup unfolding in the forecast with regard to the upper TX coast.
Obviously, it is quite early.
Of course, this is all academic st this point, but if we are talking hypotheticals, I think there’s a decent chance this coming weekend will get a lot busier for all of us.
That said, I am concerned somewhat about the synoptic setup unfolding in the forecast with regard to the upper TX coast.
Obviously, it is quite early.
Of course, this is all academic st this point, but if we are talking hypotheticals, I think there’s a decent chance this coming weekend will get a lot busier for all of us.
- tireman4
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Debby ashore in the Big Bend, and now the potential for historic flooding begins in Georgia and South Carolina
August 5, 2024 at 9:27 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, FL as an 80 mph category 1 hurricane at 7 AM ET.
The storm will now meander across Florida and Georgia, with weakening winds and increasing flooding problems.
Historic, catastrophic flooding is likely from Debby in portions of Georgia and South Carolina with widespread heavy rain causing flooding beyond those areas as well into Florida and North Carolina.
The next wave behind Debby has low odds to develop but should continue to be watched as it tracks generally due west.
Debby: 75 mph or less, moving NNE 10 mph or slower
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida this morning as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.
Hurricane Debby just after making landfall near Steinhatchee, FL this morning as a category 1 hurricane. (College of DuPage)
Debby had a pressure of 979 mb, compared to 80 mph and 979 mb with Hurricane Beryl in Texas. Two storms, identical intensities, vastly different impacts. Cedar Key saw about 6 foot surge with Debby, compared to an 8 to 9 foot surge during Idalia last summer.
Comparison of storm surge during Hurricane Debby today and Hurricane Idalia last August in Cedar Key, FL. (NOAA)
Overall, surge and wind damage will likely be less than Idalia, but still rather widespread in parts of Florida. There will continue be periodic tornado warnings in Florida and perhaps Georgia or South Carolina as Debby’s bands spread across the area. Additionally, flooding is underway in parts of Florida that have seen the heaviest rain from Debby as it moves northward.
Hurricane Debby is meandering across Florida and headed toward Georgia as it begins to unleash its flooding rains. (RadarScope)
Debby is expected to slowly track northeast and east-northeast into Georgia today, with improving conditions in parts of Central Florida but continued heavy rain and gusty winds in North Florida and Georgia, as well as South Carolina. Debby may make its way back offshore on Tuesday or Wednesday, which could allow for some re-organization to the storm. We’ve seen this a lot in the past, where people see that the storm goes offshore and fear reorganization and another big one. Usually in these cases, the system can gain a hair of strength before it comes back ashore, so we aren’t worried about Debby rejoining the ranks of hurricane or anything. Look for Debby to slide offshore, then back onshore after 24-36 hours or so, remaining a tropical storm.
Debby’s rainfall
The primary threat from Debby will remain the rain. The rainfall forecast continues to call for in excess of 20 inches on the coast of South Carolina, including Charleston, with coastal Georgia, Hilton Head, and Savannah not far off. This is in addition to rain that has already fallen.
Extreme, historic rainfall will likely produce catastrophic flooding in South Carolina, Georgia, and perhaps even portions of North Carolina with Debby. (NOAA WPC)
This will all lead to potentially historic, catastrophic flooding for portions of South Carolina, possibly Georgia, and even some bad flooding in portions of North Carolina as well. It’s tough to show river forecasts, as they only include 48 hours of rainfall forecast data, but expect major to record flooding of multiple rivers in southeast Georgia and South Carolina as we head into midweek. Anyone living in a flood zone in those areas should be prepared to take quick and immediate action. This is a fairly high confidence forecast, with fairly minimal risk that it dramatically changes unfortunately.
If you’re curious about South Carolina flooding history as it pertains to tropical systems, Melissa Griffin, an assistant state climatologist put together a pretty outstanding overview at this link.
Our thoughts are with the folks in South Carolina and beyond that will be dealing with some pretty terrible weather this week.
What comes next?
The question in the tropics is always “what’s next?” Well, we continue to watch a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean. This will carry about a 30 percent chance of development right now as it comes west.
The NHC is carrying about a 30 percent chance of development with the next system as it moves into the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche. (NOAA NHC)
Model support for this one is not terribly strong. Odds of 30 percent seem very reasonable at this point. Yes, the GFS operational crashed a storm into Texas overnight, but it is quite the outlier right now, with little to no support from other models. One reason to expect that this system would continue to go west or west northwest is a large ridge of high pressure that’s expected to establish over Texas this week and perhaps much of next week as well. The five day average for the weekend and next week (when the GFS shows the system making it to Texas) from the European ensemble shows a rather robust pattern of high pressure.
High pressure over Texas should help steer tropical activity south of the U.S. and northern Mexico for the time being. (Tropical Tidbits)
This pattern looks similar to last summer, where Texas was essentially “shielded” from tropical activity by a persistent ridge. We do not expect that this is going to hold up beyond next week right now, but for this particular tropical wave, I would say that a track into the Bay of Campeche or southward is most likely at this time.
There is another wave behind this one that may try to develop in the open Atlantic next week. As of now, we don’t see any significant landfall threats anywhere in the tropics, but we’ll be watching.
August 5, 2024 at 9:27 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, FL as an 80 mph category 1 hurricane at 7 AM ET.
The storm will now meander across Florida and Georgia, with weakening winds and increasing flooding problems.
Historic, catastrophic flooding is likely from Debby in portions of Georgia and South Carolina with widespread heavy rain causing flooding beyond those areas as well into Florida and North Carolina.
The next wave behind Debby has low odds to develop but should continue to be watched as it tracks generally due west.
Debby: 75 mph or less, moving NNE 10 mph or slower
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida this morning as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.
Hurricane Debby just after making landfall near Steinhatchee, FL this morning as a category 1 hurricane. (College of DuPage)
Debby had a pressure of 979 mb, compared to 80 mph and 979 mb with Hurricane Beryl in Texas. Two storms, identical intensities, vastly different impacts. Cedar Key saw about 6 foot surge with Debby, compared to an 8 to 9 foot surge during Idalia last summer.
Comparison of storm surge during Hurricane Debby today and Hurricane Idalia last August in Cedar Key, FL. (NOAA)
Overall, surge and wind damage will likely be less than Idalia, but still rather widespread in parts of Florida. There will continue be periodic tornado warnings in Florida and perhaps Georgia or South Carolina as Debby’s bands spread across the area. Additionally, flooding is underway in parts of Florida that have seen the heaviest rain from Debby as it moves northward.
Hurricane Debby is meandering across Florida and headed toward Georgia as it begins to unleash its flooding rains. (RadarScope)
Debby is expected to slowly track northeast and east-northeast into Georgia today, with improving conditions in parts of Central Florida but continued heavy rain and gusty winds in North Florida and Georgia, as well as South Carolina. Debby may make its way back offshore on Tuesday or Wednesday, which could allow for some re-organization to the storm. We’ve seen this a lot in the past, where people see that the storm goes offshore and fear reorganization and another big one. Usually in these cases, the system can gain a hair of strength before it comes back ashore, so we aren’t worried about Debby rejoining the ranks of hurricane or anything. Look for Debby to slide offshore, then back onshore after 24-36 hours or so, remaining a tropical storm.
Debby’s rainfall
The primary threat from Debby will remain the rain. The rainfall forecast continues to call for in excess of 20 inches on the coast of South Carolina, including Charleston, with coastal Georgia, Hilton Head, and Savannah not far off. This is in addition to rain that has already fallen.
Extreme, historic rainfall will likely produce catastrophic flooding in South Carolina, Georgia, and perhaps even portions of North Carolina with Debby. (NOAA WPC)
This will all lead to potentially historic, catastrophic flooding for portions of South Carolina, possibly Georgia, and even some bad flooding in portions of North Carolina as well. It’s tough to show river forecasts, as they only include 48 hours of rainfall forecast data, but expect major to record flooding of multiple rivers in southeast Georgia and South Carolina as we head into midweek. Anyone living in a flood zone in those areas should be prepared to take quick and immediate action. This is a fairly high confidence forecast, with fairly minimal risk that it dramatically changes unfortunately.
If you’re curious about South Carolina flooding history as it pertains to tropical systems, Melissa Griffin, an assistant state climatologist put together a pretty outstanding overview at this link.
Our thoughts are with the folks in South Carolina and beyond that will be dealing with some pretty terrible weather this week.
What comes next?
The question in the tropics is always “what’s next?” Well, we continue to watch a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean. This will carry about a 30 percent chance of development right now as it comes west.
The NHC is carrying about a 30 percent chance of development with the next system as it moves into the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche. (NOAA NHC)
Model support for this one is not terribly strong. Odds of 30 percent seem very reasonable at this point. Yes, the GFS operational crashed a storm into Texas overnight, but it is quite the outlier right now, with little to no support from other models. One reason to expect that this system would continue to go west or west northwest is a large ridge of high pressure that’s expected to establish over Texas this week and perhaps much of next week as well. The five day average for the weekend and next week (when the GFS shows the system making it to Texas) from the European ensemble shows a rather robust pattern of high pressure.
High pressure over Texas should help steer tropical activity south of the U.S. and northern Mexico for the time being. (Tropical Tidbits)
This pattern looks similar to last summer, where Texas was essentially “shielded” from tropical activity by a persistent ridge. We do not expect that this is going to hold up beyond next week right now, but for this particular tropical wave, I would say that a track into the Bay of Campeche or southward is most likely at this time.
There is another wave behind this one that may try to develop in the open Atlantic next week. As of now, we don’t see any significant landfall threats anywhere in the tropics, but we’ll be watching.
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- tireman4
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland over northern Florida.
Near the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have changed little since this morning.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development later this week as the system
moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland over northern Florida.
Near the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have changed little since this morning.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development later this week as the system
moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett
Matf said the same thing about Beryl and then raised hell at anyone that said otherwise, and then again once he was called out for being wrong. I hope he's right this time and this one goes to Mexico.
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Cromagnum they again said in their eyewall post that this was going to stay south of us, I like Matt, but beryl is a perfect of why you absolutely never dismiss other scenarios lol, could the GFS be wrong and the euro is right? Absolutely, but its extremely foolish to write off something that hasn’t even developed yet
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Who wrote this discussion? Imo, that's not a very good idea to be suggesting the idea currently that the Caribbean system will not pose any type of threat to Texas. It's way too early to make that call and as we learned with Beryl, models cannot be trusted beyond 3 days.tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 10:19 am Debby ashore in the Big Bend, and now the potential for historic flooding begins in Georgia and South Carolina
August 5, 2024 at 9:27 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, FL as an 80 mph category 1 hurricane at 7 AM ET.
The storm will now meander across Florida and Georgia, with weakening winds and increasing flooding problems.
Historic, catastrophic flooding is likely from Debby in portions of Georgia and South Carolina with widespread heavy rain causing flooding beyond those areas as well into Florida and North Carolina.
The next wave behind Debby has low odds to develop but should continue to be watched as it tracks generally due west.
Debby: 75 mph or less, moving NNE 10 mph or slower
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida this morning as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.
Hurricane Debby just after making landfall near Steinhatchee, FL this morning as a category 1 hurricane. (College of DuPage)
Debby had a pressure of 979 mb, compared to 80 mph and 979 mb with Hurricane Beryl in Texas. Two storms, identical intensities, vastly different impacts. Cedar Key saw about 6 foot surge with Debby, compared to an 8 to 9 foot surge during Idalia last summer.
Comparison of storm surge during Hurricane Debby today and Hurricane Idalia last August in Cedar Key, FL. (NOAA)
Overall, surge and wind damage will likely be less than Idalia, but still rather widespread in parts of Florida. There will continue be periodic tornado warnings in Florida and perhaps Georgia or South Carolina as Debby’s bands spread across the area. Additionally, flooding is underway in parts of Florida that have seen the heaviest rain from Debby as it moves northward.
Hurricane Debby is meandering across Florida and headed toward Georgia as it begins to unleash its flooding rains. (RadarScope)
Debby is expected to slowly track northeast and east-northeast into Georgia today, with improving conditions in parts of Central Florida but continued heavy rain and gusty winds in North Florida and Georgia, as well as South Carolina. Debby may make its way back offshore on Tuesday or Wednesday, which could allow for some re-organization to the storm. We’ve seen this a lot in the past, where people see that the storm goes offshore and fear reorganization and another big one. Usually in these cases, the system can gain a hair of strength before it comes back ashore, so we aren’t worried about Debby rejoining the ranks of hurricane or anything. Look for Debby to slide offshore, then back onshore after 24-36 hours or so, remaining a tropical storm.
Debby’s rainfall
The primary threat from Debby will remain the rain. The rainfall forecast continues to call for in excess of 20 inches on the coast of South Carolina, including Charleston, with coastal Georgia, Hilton Head, and Savannah not far off. This is in addition to rain that has already fallen.
Extreme, historic rainfall will likely produce catastrophic flooding in South Carolina, Georgia, and perhaps even portions of North Carolina with Debby. (NOAA WPC)
This will all lead to potentially historic, catastrophic flooding for portions of South Carolina, possibly Georgia, and even some bad flooding in portions of North Carolina as well. It’s tough to show river forecasts, as they only include 48 hours of rainfall forecast data, but expect major to record flooding of multiple rivers in southeast Georgia and South Carolina as we head into midweek. Anyone living in a flood zone in those areas should be prepared to take quick and immediate action. This is a fairly high confidence forecast, with fairly minimal risk that it dramatically changes unfortunately.
If you’re curious about South Carolina flooding history as it pertains to tropical systems, Melissa Griffin, an assistant state climatologist put together a pretty outstanding overview at this link.
Our thoughts are with the folks in South Carolina and beyond that will be dealing with some pretty terrible weather this week.
What comes next?
The question in the tropics is always “what’s next?” Well, we continue to watch a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean. This will carry about a 30 percent chance of development right now as it comes west.
The NHC is carrying about a 30 percent chance of development with the next system as it moves into the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche. (NOAA NHC)
Model support for this one is not terribly strong. Odds of 30 percent seem very reasonable at this point. Yes, the GFS operational crashed a storm into Texas overnight, but it is quite the outlier right now, with little to no support from other models. One reason to expect that this system would continue to go west or west northwest is a large ridge of high pressure that’s expected to establish over Texas this week and perhaps much of next week as well. The five day average for the weekend and next week (when the GFS shows the system making it to Texas) from the European ensemble shows a rather robust pattern of high pressure.
High pressure over Texas should help steer tropical activity south of the U.S. and northern Mexico for the time being. (Tropical Tidbits)
This pattern looks similar to last summer, where Texas was essentially “shielded” from tropical activity by a persistent ridge. We do not expect that this is going to hold up beyond next week right now, but for this particular tropical wave, I would say that a track into the Bay of Campeche or southward is most likely at this time.
There is another wave behind this one that may try to develop in the open Atlantic next week. As of now, we don’t see any significant landfall threats anywhere in the tropics, but we’ll be watching.
Edit: I see now it's Matt Lanza. I respectfully disagree writing an outlook like this. That's like trying to predict where severe weather will take place in a week based off of one model run. I've done that before for a class and it's nearly impossible.

As was discussed during and in the aftermath of Beryl, my biggest issue with SCW is that they use definitive language far too early. I assume it's tied to their goal of providing "hype-free" forecasts. I think you can still provide a hype-free forecast while also making it clear it's far too early to dismiss any outcomes outright.
I think the bigger issue with Matt Lanza is how he acts, especially in regards to Beryl, in the face of criticism.
I think the bigger issue with Matt Lanza is how he acts, especially in regards to Beryl, in the face of criticism.