2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[tireman4]

Blake Matthews 08 01 24

[tireman4]

Matt Devitt 08 01 24

[Cpv17]

I really don’t see any threats to the western Gulf anytime soon. The GEFS has a couple members headed towards us, but that’s really about it. Maybe during the second half of August the tropics will heat up more in the Gulf. In the meantime, we cook. I bet SST’s in the western Gulf are gonna reach 31°C over the next 2-3 weeks.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall 08 02 24


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Forecast for tropical disturbance becomes clearer: A threat to Florida, and then the US East Coast
By Eric Berger on August 2, 2024

Headlines
Invest 97L has reached Cuba, and will near the Florida Keys by Saturday
Our confidence in its track is increasing, raising the risks to Florida, and lowering them for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast
All tropical threats are in play, but we're most concerned about heavy rainfall at this time
Risks are also rising for the southeastern United States, particularly coastal regions of Georgia and the Carolinas
Status of Invest 97L
The tropical wave we've been tracking continues to get better organized, and it now has the designation Invest 97L. The approximate center of the system is now near or over the eastern end of Cuba, and it should move along the island today bringing showers and thunderstorms to Cuba and other Caribbean islands. Interaction with land may limit any attempts to organize today, but by Saturday it should emerge near the Florida Keys and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 90 percent chance of eventually becoming a tropical depression or storm. In this case it would be named Debby.


Tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of Friday morning.
Forecast clarifies some
If you read our update on Thursday, you'll recall we were in "watch-and-see" mode with this tropical system. Well, we've watched. And now, we've seen. All of our major model guidance now predicts that 97L will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and likely remain near—perhaps just offshore—the coast of Florida on Saturday and Sunday. During this time it could well strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby, but this is not sure thing as I don't know how disorganized 97L will be when it moves off of Cuba.

At some point this weekend, perhaps on Sunday, or Sunday night, 97L is likely to turn toward the northwest. This could bring the system into Florida anywhere from south of Tampa Bay to the coastal bend of Florida. A stronger storm would likely turn more quickly. In any case, residents of the Florida Keys and the West Coast of Florida should be preparing for tropical weather as early as Saturday.


There are questions about where the tropical system will move inland into Florida, and how long it may spend over the Atlantic Ocean. (NCAR)
After 97L crosses the Florida peninsula it may reemerge into the Atlantic Ocean somewhere near Jacksonville, Florida. At that point its center should remain just inland, or perhaps move offshore before moving into South Carolina or North Carolina as a stronger storm. East Coast regions from Jacksonville north to coastal Carolina and possibly even Virginia should be prepared for tropical impacts from Monday through Wednesday of next week.

We mentioned that residents of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should remain vigilant in yesterday's post, but at this point all of our guidance suggests the storm's impacts will occur from the Florida Panhandle and to the east.

97L impacts
So far we've mentioned that coastal residents in Florida and up the East Coast should prepare for tropical weather, because all of the impacts associated with a tropical system are in place: strong winds, storm surge, and inland rainfall. The extent of these impacts will depend on how much 97L strengthens before moving into the west coast of Florida, and then whether it has time to restrengthen over the Atlantic Ocean if it spends time offshore of Georgia and the Carolinas. That is impossible to forecast at this time, and probably won't be until 97L develops a better defined center of circulation.


NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through next Thursday. (Weather Bell)
The one bit of good news is that it now appears that this tropical system will probably miss an area of low steering currents over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This means that its track should be more conventional, first turning north, and then to the northeast as it moves poleward. This should help to limit rainfall totals, but some of our models are still showing very high amounts in coastal areas of Western Florida and coastal Carolina. Again, these totals will depend on the location and forward speed of the storm this weekend and during the first half of next week. Regardless, flooding is a concern.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Beyond 97L, as we get deeper into August, there is likely to be some activity over the next week or 10 days. At this point the area of greatest interest may be the southern Caribbean Sea, where something may spin out of the gyre in that region next week. We shall watch and see what happens.

[tireman4]

Reed Timmer 08 02 24

[Pas_Bon]

Dumb question, I know, but do we not do Tropical Depressions anymore? Is that still a thing? Lol
I’ve only seen PTC 1,2,3,4, then straight to a TS.

[Stratton20]

Im seeing the switch to the atlantic basin lighting up on the euro, it is just spitting out waves toward the end of its run, its coming

[DoctorMu]

Reed Timmer 08 02 24

Reed picked up Beryl's northerly track before most Mets - TBF a lot of Mets were on vacation during the July 4 weekend.

Naturally, we had Beryl's path nailed on this forum.

Anyway, I agree this looks like a Gulf side Florida storm. There's always a chance of Debby bombing out over the extra warm Gulf waters. Folks need to have an eye peeled on the eastern Gulf coast.

[Cpv17]

Dumb question, I know, but do we not do Tropical Depressions anymore? Is that still a thing? Lol
I’ve only seen PTC 1,2,3,4, then straight to a TS.

Great question.

[Stratton20]

Im becoming very interested in the wave behind this one that the GFS is showing, its currently near the antilles islands with some decent spin to it, GFS has it developing in the western caribbean in about 6 days or so, could be another threat to the gulf coast, MJO in a phase that could really allow for some big intensification should this wave reach the gulf and develop

[Cpv17]

Im becoming very interested in the wave behind this one that the GFS is showing, its currently near the antilles islands with some decent spin to it, GFS has it developing in the western caribbean in about 6 days or so, could be another threat to the gulf coast, MJO in a phase that could really allow for some big intensification should this wave reach the gulf and develop

Those low riders are typically the ones to watch for us here in Texas.

[Stratton20]

EPS, GEFS and GEPS are getting interesting in the western gulf in 10 days

[Pas_Bon]

Im becoming very interested in the wave behind this one that the GFS is showing, its currently near the antilles islands with some decent spin to it, GFS has it developing in the western caribbean in about 6 days or so, could be another threat to the gulf coast, MJO in a phase that could really allow for some big intensification should this wave reach the gulf and develop

Same. It’s giving me tummy bubbles at this point. Ugh.

[Stratton20]

06z GFS just turned Galveston into the lost city of atlantis with a major hurricane strike

[AtascocitaWX]

06z GFS just turned Galveston into the lost city of atlantis with a major hurricane strike

Dang...

[Stratton20]

Ensembles are definitely seeing this, especially the GEPS and EPS, environment looks generally favorable in the western caribbean, this will be one to watch despite operational runs flip flopping

[Stratton20]

GFS 18z likes texas again for some sort of tropical system, this next wave has got the attention of a lot of mets

[Pas_Bon]

GFS 18z likes texas again for some sort of tropical system, this next wave has got the attention of a lot of mets

I’m not sure there would be anything major to inhibit rapid intensification in the Gulf. Extra wishes that the high pressure remains in place and doesn’t retreat. I’ve got a bit of a squirrel-y feeling about it.

[Stratton20]

00z EPS , oh boy thats a strong signal, and we are talking about inside of 10 days as well

[Pas_Bon]

00z EPS , oh boy thats a strong signal, and we are talking about inside of 10 days as well

Well, crap