Hurricane Beryl

[Cpv17]

Beryl is here! this rain is crazy heavy.Looks like a smaller eye may be trying to wrap up due south of Sargent but im not sure yet.


carnvas.png

Enjoy it! One more last time for you to experience before you move.

[srainhoutx]

WTNT42 KNHC 080254
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better
organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center,
with new convective elements emerging around the northern and
southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from
the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted
a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However,
the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence
of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt
based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level
wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass
through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity
for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly
fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb.

The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for
intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight.
The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow
Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential
for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still
indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly
the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting
factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h
forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak
intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and
is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland.

The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt,
but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of
due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the
center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between
Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term
NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After
landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including
Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should
follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation
orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through
Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf
Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is
also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[dp6]

Edit: Quick draw McGraw beat me to it.

[Cpv17]

I know this is likely a dumb question, but the only other storm I've experienced at home is Ike, also in the Humble area. Any thoughts on what we should expect up here compared to Ike?

Nothing remotely close to Ike for your area.

[DoctorMu]

I know this is likely a dumb question, but the only other storm I've experienced at home is Ike, also in the Humble area. Any thoughts on what we should expect up here compared to Ike?

Ike was far worse. It rocked downtown and blew out windows. However Beryl is going to chassé closer to Houston than expected.

[Tx2005]

I know this is likely a dumb question, but the only other storm I've experienced at home is Ike, also in the Humble area. Any thoughts on what we should expect up here compared to Ike?

Nothing remotely close to Ike for your area.

That's good to hear. I saw somebody on Twitter saying it would be similar in the Houston metro, which didn't sound right to me, so I wanted to ask here.

On that note, I really value the information here. There is so much garbage out there.

[tireman4]

Not to be the bearer of bad news, but I have a feeling this is a dress rehearsal for not only the Houston/Galveston area, but the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Atlantic. This will be a busy season folks.

[dp6]

While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak
intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and
is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast.

Hey, thanks for not answering the question so many are asking, "What is the latest estimate of landfall intensity?"

Maybe I missed it, but didn't see it in quick looks in Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion.

[Ptarmigan]

I know this is likely a dumb question, but the only other storm I've experienced at home is Ike, also in the Humble area. Any thoughts on what we should expect up here compared to Ike?

Ike was a larger hurricane compared to Beryl. I do not expect prolonged hurricane force winds.

[tireman4]

As Beryl moves into the Middle Texas coast, I will admit I loathe late night/ early morning landfalling hurricanes.

[Texashawk]

Really surprised Fort Bend isn’t under a hurricane warning with the new track. Looks like we’ll literally get the eye now in Sienna.

[Tx2005]

Looks like Galveston Island is under a hurricane warning now.

[dp6]

So I just checked the point forecasts along the same latitude as the SW Fwy/Beltway 8 interchange, nearly 20 miles each way from 723 north of Rosenberg to I-45 in South Houston. The highest projected windspeeds were at 288 just south of 610 (68 mph sustained, gusts to 90 mph.) The current track has the eye crossing the Grand Parkway near the Harlem Road curve, so the 288 box would be about 19 miles east of that path.

Does that suggest that the local Houston NWS office thinks the eye will actually run further east along 288 @ 610? Or that the winds in the eastern eyewall will be stronger than in the north and south eyewalls? I'm guessing the later, because while the box for the current track along the Grand Pky only maxed at 40 mph gusts to 64 mph, it has a deep V shaped drop in winds then they pick back up (eye pattern?)

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Warning issued.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Code: Select all

Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX  AL022024
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

TXZ236-081115-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Matagorda-
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Bay City
    - Blessing
    - Van Vleck

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 70 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
          should now be complete. The area remains subject to
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include the
          potential for several tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - http://ready.gov/hurricanes
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
        - http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

$$

[don]

Beryls rainsheild is larger and more organized than I expected. It stretches from Seadrift to Galveston at the moment.

IMG_0044.jpeg

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Beryl is already a hurricane by now.

[Andrew]

I would not be surprised if Beryl is already a hurricane by now.

Agreed, nhc is waiting for recon but this should have been updated on the 10pm update

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Beryl is already a hurricane by now.

Agreed, nhc is waiting for recon but this should have been updated on the 10pm update

I could see NHC issuing an interim advisory before 1:00 AM indicating Beryl is a hurricane.

[Stratton20]

Looks like a 2nd passage has found the center making a sharper NW turn

[MH5]

We’re in wobble watching mode at this point. Overall probably won’t make a ton of difference, but will be interesting to see where the final landfall point is. Going to be a loud night for most of us regardless. Just glad the Yucatan / dry air did a number on her over the past couple of days.