Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

I'm on computer and phone...but that eye looks like it's headed for Surfside Beach. Am I wrong??

[don]

Eye wall developing on radar.

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[Andrew]

I think the eye contracting is causing the appearance of a NNE movement. Recon should pass through here shortly and we will know

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm. AF301 made an unexpected 5th pass. Almost looks like a due n fix but not ready to call it a change in heading. NOAA mission has a different fix just to the w.

Beginning to look like it's directional change in heading. If so this is about 4 hrs earlier than expected.

Yeah, I believe the N to NNE shift is occurring. Next pass should confirm. AF C130 enroute from Biloxi. We should have continual RECON til landfall now.

[DoctorMu]

Don, that eye is tightening. And if Beryl has stopped gaining longitude, she's landing east (north) of Sargent.

[DoctorMu]

[don]

The 0Z HRRR slows Beryl down more once it makes landfall.Shows a longer duration of high wind gust over the area.Also QPF amounts below.

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[Ptarmigan]

Most recent NWS Houston Doppler radar loop.

[DoctorMu]

Hmmm. AF301 made an unexpected 5th pass. Almost looks like a due n fix but not ready to call it a change in heading. NOAA mission has a different fix just to the w.

Beginning to look like it's directional change in heading. If so this is about 4 hrs earlier than expected.

Yeah, I believe the N to NNE shift is occurring. Next pass should confirm. AF C130 enroute from Biloxi. We should have continual RECON til landfall now.

Timmer noticed this some minutes ago.

[djmike]

If the NE motion is starting lookout Galveston, Boliver and Beaumont!

[DoctorMu]

The 0Z HRRR slows Beryl down more once it makes landfall.Shows a longer duration of high wind gust over the area.Also QPF amounts below.


Scrsenshot 2024-07-07 a[...].pngScrdeenshot 2024-07-07 a[...].pngScreeewnshot 2024-07-07 a[...].png

Assuming Beryl is on a northerly course, that appears to be eye is too far west on HRRR.

[AtascocitaWX]

Looking like Freeport or a little east@ Cat 1. She running out of time ,which is a good thing. Hurricane models still say she will be strenghing until landfall, I just don't think so . I though at this point she will be a cat 1 already but she still struggling.

[Rip76]

Oh my

[Andrew]

Latest recon

[don]

Beryl may get an upgrade to a hurricane soon 69 Knot flight level winds found...

[txbear]

Sargent to Surfside looks like it. Due north to my untrained eyes. With what y’all are saying about the early turn, perhaps even further east than surfside?

[srainhoutx]

Looks like Beryl is back to a Hurricane. A couple of more passes should confirm NNE motion.

[Rip76]

Man these things love to ride the coastline.

Friction?

[biggerbyte]

We will need official confirmation of any easterly component. Many times certain behavior can give an illusion of movement in a particular direction..

[don]

The eyewall is starting to show on local radar, and the rainshield is moving inland now into Matagorda and Brazoria counties.

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