brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:08 pm
If it's a cat 1 at landfall how many people on here are actually going to leave? I plan on staying of it's a ts or a cat 1 maybe a 2..anything at a 3 or above then I would probably leave
The problem is that this is a situation where we could see rapid intensification prior to landfall. If the storm is a category 1 24-36 hours before landfall, then it could easily intensify to a category 3. It would reach that intensity right before landfall and people will have stayed for an unexpected major hurricane. It's not like Katrina or Rita where you knew it was going to be really bad before it had impacts.
Two primary reasons I don’t like these latest trends and solutions is because for one the last thing we want to see is a hurricane intensifying while accelerating towards the coast - that’s almost a worst case scenario because that would place us in the right front quadrant of the storm where the official category may be that of let’s say a Category 3 but you have to take in account of the forward speed of the storm, so some of the impacts many may end up experiencing may be that of a Category 4 hurricane. One hurricane that jump to the top of my head which serve as a good example of this is Hurricane Hugo.
Second, the further right solutions accelerating through SETX will rob Central & South Central TX of much needed rainfall accumulations and drought relief. Unlike most of the solutions earlier in the week where the trough wasn’t quite strong enough to completely capture Beryl allowing her to slowly transverse across SCTX & Central TX while dumping welcomed rains across those regions, most of the latest solutions accelerate Beryl up and out of area while largely missing Central TX for the most part.
Last edited by 869MB on Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don't really much more east shifts past Galveston. More than likely between Freeport and Galveston may be the best bet. The spaghetti models currently are tightly clustered and seemingly getting tighter. Don't have much of an analog system since they don't usually recurve quick this time of season, but Allison maybe trackwise minus the loop de loop of course.
Looks like places west of Schulenburg get screwed of much rain.
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:33 pm
Is dr Neal Frank still alive?
Pushing 92 I believe, but I can't remember when the last hurricane was that they brought him out of retirement to do a broadcast. I'm sure he would do it again, but I can't imagine folks would ask him.
Man, I think Ike. Maybe a little action on Harvey.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:03 pm
I’ve never really experienced a hurricane before so I wouldn’t mind experiencing a cat 1 or 2. The closest I’ve came to experiencing one was Claudette in 2003 and Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.
It's not fun. Been through enough to be done with it. Alicia, Allison (both of them), Chantal , Harvey, Imelda, Nicholas.
Thankfully I was in College Station during Ike and Rita.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:03 pm
I’ve never really experienced a hurricane before so I wouldn’t mind experiencing a cat 1 or 2. The closest I’ve came to experiencing one was Claudette in 2003 and Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.
Well, I have been through four, Alicia, Fran, Rita and Ike. They are not fun. Just my opinion. Great to study and write papers about, riding them out, nope.
Maybe it’s different for me since I’m still single with no kids. I wouldn’t wanna experience a major though.
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:08 pm
If it's a cat 1 at landfall how many people on here are actually going to leave? I plan on staying of it's a ts or a cat 1 maybe a 2..anything at a 3 or above then I would probably leave
The problem is that this is a situation where we could see rapid intensification prior to landfall. If the storm is a category 1 24-36 hours before landfall, then it could easily intensify to a category 3. It would reach that intensity right before landfall and people will have stayed for an unexpected major hurricane. It's not like Katrina or Rita where you knew it was going to be really bad before it had impacts.
Two primary reasons I don’t like these latest trends and solutions is because for one the last thing we want to see is a hurricane intensifying while accelerating towards the coast - that’s almost a worst case scenario because that would place us in the right front quadrant of the storm where the official category may be that of let’s say a Category 3 but you have to take in account of the forward speed of the storm, so some of the impacts many may end up experiencing may be that of a Category 4 hurricane. One hurricane that jump to the top of my head which serve as a good example of this is Hurricane Hugo.
Second, the further right solutions accelerating through SETX will rob Central & South Central TX of much needed rainfall accumulations and drought relief. Unlike most of the solutions earlier in the week where the trough wasn’t quite strong enough to completely capture Beryl allowing her to slowly transverse across SCTX & Central TX while dumping welcomed rains across those regions, most of the latest solutions accelerate Beryl up and out of area while largely missing Central TX for the most part.
I prefer it go west of Houston area. Let South and Central Texas have the rain.
Hurricane/Tropical Storm action in my life. (I'm 51) - The ones I remember.
Allen 1980 (Texas City) - Mom panicked (Because of Carla) and we evacuated to Somerville
Alicia 1983 (Texas City) - Rode it out. Scary as hell for a 10 year old. No power for 2 weeks. (Also exciting)
Jerry 1989 (Texas City) - Went surfing the day before (which was a blast). Drank Long Island Teas in my friend's front yard as it came ashore. (also a blast)
Frances - 1998 (Webster) - meh
Allison - 2001 (We all know about that) Seemed pretty bad until Harvey.
Claudette - 2003 (Pearland) - nice rains, perfect winds
Rita - 2005 (Pearland) - 12 hours to get from I-10 on the beltway from Pearland. Turned around and boarded up.
Ike - 2008 (Pearland) - Not fun. (Especially with a 3 month old) Nice cool front the night after though with no power.
Harvey -2017 (Pearland) - Well we all know the answer to that one.
Last edited by Rip76 on Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I’ve been through a few tropical storms. They were all fun but have me wanting more. They weren’t strong enough for my liking. Had some 40-50mph winds tops. Frances was the best one.
*Alicia - it flooded.
* Ike - road out in Friendswood, even the "only" cat 2 winds still shook our house like an angry toddler messing with a doll house, lost a fence, and then we lost power for several days
* Rita - evacuated Friendswood this time (learned our lesson with Ike), sat stuck in traffic for 12+ hours, lost power in Crockett where we rode out the storm
* Harvey - water literally lapping at the front door, emergency shifts for two weeks, basically two weeks of no sleep
* plus a bunch of weak trash storms I don't remember the name of
Can confirm, much better to leave your house to chase a storm than to have a storm chase you to your house.
Been through Alicia, Allison, Harvey, Eye of Rita, Eye of Ike. The scariest one for me still to this day is Rita! And I was in Jasper!! Was at my grandparents trailer to make sure they were safe and the tie downs that keeps the trailer anchored were snapping! Trees coming down all around us we had move into a neighbors brick house down the road for safety during the eye. I will never ever forget!
*Alicia - it flooded.
* Ike - road out in Friendswood, even the "only" cat 2 winds still shook our house like an angry toddler messing with a doll house, lost a fence, and then we lost power for several days
* Rita - evacuated Friendswood this time (learned our lesson with Ike), sat stuck in traffic for 12+ hours, lost power in Crockett where we rode out the storm
* Harvey - water literally lapping at the front door, emergency shifts for two weeks, basically two weeks of no sleep
* plus a bunch of weak trash storms I don't remember the name of
Can confirm, much better to leave your house to chase a storm than to have a storm chase you to your house.
Claudette in 1979 48 inches of rain in 24 hours a lot of Friendswood flooded. Agree I don’t want another storm!!!!
Sure enough the HAFS models had the right idea although the 'centers' don't seem to be as displaced or tilted as they were showing. May take awhile for Beryl to reorganize is they appear to be still competing. If they are correct it will take another 12 hrs to resolve fully. Will certainly be curious what they show on the 0z runs. No upper level recon today. Just tail doppler missions with one already finished that should make it into the 0z runs.
Still currently tracking on the northern edge of guidance. That along with the 18z Euro and yet another adjustment up the coast is in the cards. Could be as far n as Matagorda Bay.
Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.
Travis is far from doomsday imo. He’s been the best local meteorologist on this and many others. I love space city weather as well but Matt and Eric are both too prone to sounding absolute in their predictions and try not to sound “too hype” and then have to eat crow later on. Travis has been on this storms northerly trend for days and done a great job explaining why.
Sent this to him this afternoon….
Btw….I was stuck at Ochsner Hospital on Jefferson Hwy in NOLA during Katrina.
Folks around there aren't serious about a lot of things (I lived in Baton Rouge for nearly 5 years). Katrina was once a CAT5 that filled the entire GoM. She had some push. Even when weakening to a Cat3/2, the water was coming and Katrina was positioned perfectly so that east wind ahead of the storm surged into Lake Pontchartrain. Unfortunately, the Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco weren't organized and didn't take things as seriously as they should have.
I don't remember here in Texas being a target for Katrina.
I do remember Rita was progged initially to target Houston then curved toward the LaTx border.
I respect Travis Herzog for trying to keep folks aware. Especially on a holiday weekend.
As I posted earlier, the morning Houston Chronicle exclaimed that Beryl was headed to toward Mexico after Cancun. Oopsie.
Unless something drastic changes this is Texas system. I still say Corpus to Galveston, but with these shifts it could very well be more like Freeport to Galveston. I highly doubt anything more north than that.
This is going to get nasty. Flooding is certainly a component, but not Harvey style.. Weak tornadoes, TS to HC winds, and torrential downpours. Damage is certain, as well as power outages..
Folks, pray for the sick and the elderly who could be without power for a long stretch. Now we wait to see if changes between now and Sunday.
djmike wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:49 pm
Been through Alicia, Allison, Harvey, Eye of Rita, Eye of Ike. The scariest one for me still to this day is Rita! And I was in Jasper!! Was at my grandparents trailer to make sure they were safe and the tie downs that keeps the trailer anchored were snapping! Trees coming down all around us we had move into a neighbors brick house down the road for safety during the eye. I will never ever forget!
I had a student in a class from Jasper (hurricane strength winds well inland). It was crushed by Rita and knocked down a lot of trees.
djmike wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:49 pm
Been through Alicia, Allison, Harvey, Eye of Rita, Eye of Ike. The scariest one for me still to this day is Rita! And I was in Jasper!! Was at my grandparents trailer to make sure they were safe and the tie downs that keeps the trailer anchored were snapping! Trees coming down all around us we had move into a neighbors brick house down the road for safety during the eye. I will never ever forget!
I had a student in a class from Jasper (hurricane strength winds well inland). It was crushed by Rita and knocked down a lot of trees.
Yeah, we were gonna stay in Beaumont because at the time is was aimed at Houston, then last minute directly at Beaumont, so we figured we would go to our grandparents house in Jasper! Far inland! Well…we were mistaken big time! Hurricane force winds up in Jasper! We were trapped in the woods by fallen trees. And I remember, IT WAS HOT afterwards! We stayed in my grandparents trailer till we actually felt it was dangerous with the heat and evacuated BACK to Houston where everything was fine! The traffic was insane! 12 hrs from Jasper to Houston!
Ike was pretty scary too but Rita, still nothing ive been in since has compared and I hope I never have to be in that situation again! House flooded in Harvey! That was a different kind of scary! Harvey actually has created PTSD for me now.
…anyway, back to Beryl! 10pm track should be out shortly!
