Hurricane Beryl

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:57 pm Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.
Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.


I trust him. BS in Meteorology from A&M. Went to school with Jeff Lindner. Quality guy
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:23 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:57 pm Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.
Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.


I trust him. BS in Meteorology from A&M. Went to school with Jeff Lindner. Quality guy
Yep, completely agree. Travis has handled Beryl very well the entire time.
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:23 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:57 pm Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.
Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.


I trust him. BS in Meteorology from A&M. Went to school with Jeff Lindner. Quality guy
I trust him too.
brazoriatx
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Is dr Neal Frank still alive?
Pas_Bon
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:25 pm
tireman4 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:23 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:21 pm

Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.


I trust him. BS in Meteorology from A&M. Went to school with Jeff Lindner. Quality guy
Yep, completely agree. Travis has handled Beryl very well the entire time.
Absolutely. I was salty at him for ridiculing the January hard freeze subscribers, but he has been spot-on with Beryl
Pas_Bon
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We just need a random, scruffy fat dude with a cigar and plastic colored visor to call it and it’s official.
Pas_Bon
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By the way, trusted friend told me that Cantore is in Surfside Beach.
JDsGN
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:57 pm Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.
Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.
Travis is far from doomsday imo. He’s been the best local meteorologist on this and many others. I love space city weather as well but Matt and Eric are both too prone to sounding absolute in their predictions and try not to sound “too hype” and then have to eat crow later on. Travis has been on this storms northerly trend for days and done a great job explaining why.
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JDsGN wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:38 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:57 pm Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.
Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.
Travis is far from doomsday imo. He’s been the best local meteorologist on this and many others. I love space city weather as well but Matt and Eric are both too prone to sounding absolute in their predictions and try not to sound “too hype” and then have to eat crow later on. Travis has been on this storms northerly trend for days and done a great job explaining why.
Sent this to him this afternoon….

Btw….I was stuck at Ochsner Hospital on Jefferson Hwy in NOLA during Katrina.
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captainbarbossa19
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:08 pm If it's a cat 1 at landfall how many people on here are actually going to leave? I plan on staying of it's a ts or a cat 1 maybe a 2..anything at a 3 or above then I would probably leave
The problem is that this is a situation where we could see rapid intensification prior to landfall. If the storm is a category 1 24-36 hours before landfall, then it could easily intensify to a category 3. It would reach that intensity right before landfall and people will have stayed for an unexpected major hurricane. It's not like Katrina or Rita where you knew it was going to be really bad before it had impacts.
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Rip76 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:39 pm Then Tx/La border, and more heat.

:(
I hope so. No offense to people living there, but it's less populated. I don't want to live days without power. I don't want to replace a fence, a roof, windows, or have a tree fall on my house. I don't want the shed to collapse on my boat. I don't want to work mandatory 12-hour shifts for weeks on end with no days off because Houston is a disaster area.

As a young man, I would have loved to ride out a hurricane. I'm a middle-aged man now with a job and family, and I've gotten canes out of my system. I'll take a hot, dry summer over a cane any day. Hopefully, this storm will stay a tropical storm and just bring a bit of rain and wind. Doesn't seem likely.

My experience is these tracks shift east over time when they are heading towards MX/TX. Corpus seems to be the main target right now, so I'm pretty concerned. Time is running out.
Last edited by Waded on Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:56 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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don
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Waded wrote:
Rip76 wrote: Then Tx/La border, and more heat.

:(
I hope so. No offense to people living there, but it's less populated. I don't want to live days without power. I don't want to replace a fence, a roof, windows, or have a tree fall on my house. I don't want the shed to collapse on my boat. I don't want to work mandatory 12-hour shifts for weeks on end with no days off because Houston is a disaster area.

As a young man, I would have to road out a hurricane. I'm a middle age man now with a job and family, and I've gotten canes out of my system. I'll take a hot, dry summer over a cane any day. Hopefully, this storm will stay a tropical storm and just bring a bit of rain and wind. Doesn't seem likely.

My experience is these tracks shift east over time when they are heading towards MX/TX. Corpus seems to be the mean target, so I'm pretty concerned. Time is running out.
Thank you! Completely Agree.
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tireman4
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:33 pm Is dr Neal Frank still alive?

Yes, very much so
Stratton20
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Track will definitely be shifting north, and what is the HWBI doing? Weird loop
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davidiowx
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Is it me or is this trough making some decent progress south? That is incredible for this time of year.
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I’ve never really experienced a hurricane before so I wouldn’t mind experiencing a cat 1 or 2. The closest I’ve came to experiencing one was Claudette in 2003 and Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.
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tireman4
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:03 pm I’ve never really experienced a hurricane before so I wouldn’t mind experiencing a cat 1 or 2. The closest I’ve came to experiencing one was Claudette in 2003 and Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.


Well, I have been through four, Alicia, Fran, Rita and Ike. They are not fun. Just my opinion. Great to study and write papers about, riding them out, nope.
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:10 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:03 pm I’ve never really experienced a hurricane before so I wouldn’t mind experiencing a cat 1 or 2. The closest I’ve came to experiencing one was Claudette in 2003 and Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.


Well, I have been through four, Alicia, Fran, Rita and Ike. They are not fun. Just my opinion. Great to study and write papers about, riding them out, nope.
To say the least. When I was younger I was ecstatic when storms came here.. having my house flooded for days to weeks with Allison and Harvey, then the winds with Ike and no power for 2+ weeks. I’ll pass.

It’s amazing to see the power of nature but sucks with the aftermath. Plus I have youngins so it’s hard to keep them occupied as is. Much less with generator power LOL!
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brazoriatx wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:33 pm Is dr Neal Frank still alive?
Pushing 92 I believe, but I can't remember when the last hurricane was that they brought him out of retirement to do a broadcast. I'm sure he would do it again, but I can't imagine folks would ask him.
Stratton20
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Gotta love that one model ( HFBI) that shows a weird loop da loop motion, always that one crazy model lol
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