Hurricane Beryl

[Scott747]

Reconnaissance flight heading towards the storm, should have fresh data ingested by the 00z models tonight

That's one of the low level flights. The upper level synoptic mission with the more important data looks to be near completion and headed back to St Croix. Data should be in the 0z runs tonight.

recon_NOAA9-1002A-BERYL_dropsondes.png

[Stratton20]

Interestingly the 18z GEFS came in stronger than past runs, with more stronger members focus somewhere along the texas coastline

[Rhodesk75]

Travis Herzog over on ABC 13 just now…”Some of our better models, that have been great at tracking hurricanes (HWRF’s), are continuing to trend on the far right side of the cone. This is not what we want to see here in the mid Texas coast, as that means a strong hurricane for us….but still, this is a pattern we are watching until we know for sure what happens with Jamaica…”

[Stratton20]

18z Euro only goes out 90 hours, but it appears it may be starting to cave toward a northerly solution , comes off the NW tip of the yucatan unlike 12z which went into the BOC

[Stormlover2020]

103 mile shift for euro

[Cpv17]

Surprisingly, Beryl is still a 150mph storm. I wasn’t expecting that.

[biggerbyte]

Even without land interaction we still have wind shear to deal with. Just a couple more days.

[Stormlover2020]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/18082855197 ... RUOsDj9WOg

[AtascocitaWX]

Despite what she looks like Beryl is still a strong Cat 4 hurricane. Recon finding wind still of 150mph and gust of 180. Don't look good for Jamica. Tutti, Shear ain't stopping her. She saying hold my beer!!

[Stratton20]

Beryl is attempting to clear out its eye, unbelievable, 30 knots of vertical shear and this storm is just resilient

[sswinney]

It’s amazing that hurricane hunters found 180 mph winds still in this. What weakening?!

[sambucol]

It’s amazing that hurricane hunters found 180 mph winds still in this. What weakening?!

Sustained or gusts of 180?

[sswinney]

It’s amazing that hurricane hunters found 180 mph winds still in this. What weakening?!

Sustained or gusts of 180?

It maybe gusts because it’s just what they observed.

[sswinney]

Beryl is attempting to clear out its eye, unbelievable, 30 knots of vertical shear and this storm is just resilient

Stronger convection starting to show up too.

[sambucol]

It’s amazing that hurricane hunters found 180 mph winds still in this. What weakening?!

Sustained or gusts of 180?

It maybe gusts because it’s just what they observed.

On Travis Herzog’s last post, he has a photo and it says estimated surface winds 182mph. I’m praying that isn’t sustained.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately an explosive hot tower wrapped around to the western side of the eye wall which has helped to restrengthen that portion of the eye wall, its trying to clear out now, this could be an unbelievably busted forecast…..

[biggerbyte]

Dust, dry air, wind shear, and land interaction. Godzilla fighting a cow, but the cow wins?

[NWHouston]

This is a possibility. And a scary one. Hopefully Beryl doesn’t gain that much latitude.
Given that to be in this position it has to be in a strong right curve this would be ideal for houston and very bad for LA


That is a huge eye if that plays out. Around 1 degree of latitude end to end, so practically 70 miles wide.

TUTT shear and land shear will spread Beryl out, just like moving the MOI out on a spinning skater. The arms extend out while she slows her spin. Whe she refeeds over the GoM whe get a bigger storm with more outer rain bands and a looser eye. We'll see.

[sswinney]

Sustained or gusts of 180?

It maybe gusts because it’s just what they observed.

On Travis Herzog’s last post, he has a photo and it says estimated surface winds 182mph. I’m praying that isn’t sustained.

However looking again at that same post by Herzog the graphic also shows Minimum Pressure:0000mb
That can’t be right

[DoctorMu]

Dust, dry air, wind shear, and land interaction. Godzilla fighting a cow, but the cow wins?

Undaunted for the record breaker.