Hurricane Beryl

[Scott747]

Latest forecast track from the NHC aligns with the HAFS-B. Still considerable spread in guidance so swings could still be expected. Hoping the latest recon data that gets ingested in the models this evening will begin to resolve them.

HAFS-B.png

[biggerbyte]

Some very interesting observations today. So, high pressure looks like it will move off to the east and weaken. Then take a look at the jet stream. There has been occasional chatter about Beryl reaching the Texas coast then either stalling or crawling along. Being a Tropical Storm at the juncture, it isn't going to be as tight.

There could be a lot of rain coming in..Are we going to see another monster? The answer is not likely considering wind shear issues. We are not going to see what we have seen in the eastern caribbean. That was a fluke where conditions in that area were perfect for rapid development.

[Pas_Bon]

If the HWRF is to be believed, it is….

Jamaica->Caymans->Northern tip of the Yucatán->prison (inferred)->Galveston or Freeport

[AtascocitaWX]

If the HWRF is to be believed, it is….

Jamaica->Caymans->Northern tip of the Yucatán->prison (inferred)->Galveston or Freeport

Man that's a nice size storm if it's right.

[jasons2k]

If the HWRF is to be believed, it is….

Jamaica->Caymans->Northern tip of the Yucatán->prison (inferred)->Galveston or Freeport

This is a possibility. And a scary one. Hopefully Beryl doesn’t gain that much latitude.

[Cpv17]

Through 57 hours, the 18z ICON is slightly stronger and slightly further S than the 12z.

[Stormlover2020]

Icon isn’t budging

[AtascocitaWX]

If the HWRF is to be believed, it is….

Jamaica->Caymans->Northern tip of the Yucatán->prison (inferred)->Galveston or Freeport

This is a possibility. And a scary one. Hopefully Beryl doesn’t gain that much latitude.

Jason2k what's this about a cat3 ?

[Stratton20]

ICON at hour 120 looks a little more stronger and south of 12z just a hair, that trajectory looks like it would come in around port arthur if i had to guess

[Cpv17]

Yeah, I’d say High Island to Sabine Pass on the 18z ICON if you were to extrapolate it.

[AtascocitaWX]

I see Beryl looks to be weakening some , fighting the TUTT and shear

[Cromagnum]

If the HWRF is to be believed, it is….

Jamaica->Caymans->Northern tip of the Yucatán->prison (inferred)->Galveston or Freeport

This is a possibility. And a scary one. Hopefully Beryl doesn’t gain that much latitude.

That is a huge eye if that plays out. Around 1 degree of latitude end to end, so practically 70 miles wide.

[djmike]

ICON at hour 120 looks a little more stronger and south of 12z just a hair, that trajectory looks like it would come in around port arthur if i had to guess

Umm no Ill pass. Beaumont doesnt want any part of a direct hit. Lol. Matagorda then northward inland would be ideal and probably beneficial to most of Texas.

[DoctorMu]

If the HWRF is to be believed, it is….

Jamaica->Caymans->Northern tip of the Yucatán->prison (inferred)->Galveston or Freeport

This is a possibility. And a scary one. Hopefully Beryl doesn’t gain that much latitude.

That is a huge eye if that plays out. Around 1 degree of latitude end to end, so practically 70 miles wide.

TUTT shear and land shear will spread Beryl out, just like moving the MOI out on a spinning skater. The arms extend out while she slows her spin. Whe she refeeds over the GoM whe get a bigger storm with more outer rain bands and a looser eye. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

Man, what a difference between the ICON and the other models.

[Stormlover2020]

Well it’s all about how strong it is and where it passes on yuc pen

[Scott747]

18z GFS looks similar to the 12z hurricane models. Trough isn't deep enough so it's more of a wnw to nw heading as it approaches ne mex and the border.

[Stratton20]

Trough looks like it still wants to yank it inland into texas before before turning west

[djmike]

What days does it pass near Jamaica then YP? Im getting tired of Beryl already. What happened to storm D?

[Stratton20]

Reconnaissance flight heading towards the storm, should have fresh data ingested by the 00z models tonight