June 2024

[Cromagnum]

Blob near Cancun is much more vigorous than the area in the BoC.

[jasons2k]

Interesting the last couple of days, generous showers and thunderstorms were already spreading inland to our east, over in Louisiana and now today it’s already mostly to the southwest.

[Stratton20]

I think that blow up of convection over the north yucatan is the vort max that some models showed becoming the dominant feature, something to watch

[jasons2k]

I think that blow up of convection over the north yucatan is the vort max that some models showed becoming the dominant feature, something to watch

Careful with that. The northern Yucatan has a convective blowup almost every day in the summer (similar to Florida). Not saying the northern circulation(s) won’t eventually be dominant, (probably will with the shear), just pointing out to not put too much stock in afternoon convective blowups over the Yucatan peninsula. Happens with almost every wave that passes there.

[Stratton20]

jasons2k oh no i agree it could just be that, but their were some hints that that “ convection” could try to rotate around and potentially reform a new center, gicen the high shear to its north, the convection would likely get blown off to the current “ center”s east and NE, not saying its likely, but of course worth watching given a center relocation could definitely change our impacts either up or down

[sswinney]

GFS has a max bullseye of 25 inches, we really gotta watch and see where these feeder bands set up

Looks like between Karnes City and Victoria the GFS paints the highest totals and coming in around matagorda to bay city.

[Scott747]

Sounds like they will be starting at least PTC advisories later this afternoon or evening.....

Flood watch for the coastal counties and inland from tomorrow night into Wednesday. Could get the PTC or straight TS watch starting at 4 or 10.

[Stratton20]

While its too early for any details, both the Euro and GFS agree on potentially yet another threat to the western gulf in about 8-10 days, so we could have alot to watch besides just this one as well fwiw

[don]

hgx (3).png

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
139 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

TXZ197-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439-180245-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0007.240619T0000Z-240620T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-
Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland
Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal
Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Old River-Winfree, Houston, Surfside
Beach, Hempstead, La Marque, Anahuac, Stowell, First Colony,
Pasadena, Lake Jackson, Friendswood, Mission Bend, Devers, Texas
City, Prairie View, Sugar Land, Dickinson, Alvin, Edna, Pearland,
Pecan Grove, Mont Belvieu, Weimar, Galveston, Bellville,
Brookshire, Wharton, Winnie, Bay City, Missouri City, Sealy,
Angleton, Palacios, Baytown, Freeport, Waller, Rosenberg,
Brenham, League City, Eagle Lake, Columbus, El Campo, Clute, and
Ganado
139 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas, including
the following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal Jackson and
Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Austin, Bolivar Peninsula,
Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston,
Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston
Island, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland
Matagorda, Matagorda Islands, Southern Liberty, Waller, Washington
and Wharton.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with an
approaching tropical disturbance in the Western Gulf will
produce 4-8 inches of rainfall across the area within the
watch. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to occur between Tuesday night and
Wednesday afternoon.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Cady/Ellis

[Goomba]

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

LAZ073-TXZ615-181200-
/O.UPG.KLCH.CF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-240620T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.W.0003.240618T0600Z-240620T0000Z/
West Cameron-Lower Jefferson-
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...In Louisiana, West Cameron Parish. In Texas, Lower
Jefferson County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property
including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure
will be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Tides will be around 2 feet above predicted
astronomical levels, with actual tide levels during high tide
time between 2.0 and 3.0 MHHW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.


---‐-----------------------------------


Flood Watch
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
152 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

TXZ201-515-516-615-616-181200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.A.0009.240618T1200Z-240620T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hardin-Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-Southern
Orange-
Including the cities of Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sabine
Pass, China, Beaumont, Bridge City, Lumberton, Vidor, Silsbee,
Mauriceville, Nederland, and Orange
152 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
areas, Hardin, Lower Jefferson, Northern Orange, Southern Orange
and Upper Jefferson.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Deep tropical moisture will be moving across lower southeast
Texas producing widespread showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall, which may happen in a short period of time.
Rainfall rates will be 1 to 2 inches per hour, with total
rainfall amounts averaging 2 to 5 inches with locally higher
amounts.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[tireman4]

Radar Update 2 45 pm 06 17 24

[Stratton20]

18z HRRR really showing those training bands setting up right over se texas

[Cpv17]

This is really interesting:

[don]

The HRRR continues to show the majority of rain being over the coastal bend and SE Texas. The HRRR is showing a very concerning setup.

4eqpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).png

hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

[DoctorMu]

The HRRR continues to show the majority of rain being over the coastal bend and SE Texas. The HRRR is showing a very concerning setup.


4eqpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).pnghrrr_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

WPC QPF Holy Moly! Concerning to say the least south of Hwy 1*5:

[brazoriatx]

NHC to post advisories at 4:00 pm

[DoctorMu]

[tireman4]

NHC to post advisories at 4:00 pm

Yep....NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

[Rip76]

This is really interesting:

I guess this is for the next system.

[tireman4]

Pete Cavlin 06 17 24 PTC