June 2024

[tireman4]

Lots of chatter on S2K that this thing may tighten up a lot and hit pretty far south, in which case, Houston will get less rain than has been shown in the last few updates.

There was one post (from an amateur member. based on one visible satellite loop, showing a swirl over land) with this assessment and someone else latching onto that post.

It’s still a disorganized mess. Careful with the “chatter” because that’s all it is right now.

Agreed. This mess is just a huge glob. The models are still having issues with all of this. I think we might know more when Recon gets down there.

[jasons2k]

Would we get any tropical stormWarnings or watches posted along our coastline

Yes, with the first advisory b/c we are within 48 hours of the onset of conditions.

I haven’t been plugged into any of the discussions this am but I’m gonna guess a TC warning from the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass, and a TS Watch out to Sabine Pass or Cameron, LA.

[Rip76]

Would we get any tropical stormWarnings or watches posted along our coastline

Yes, with the first advisory b/c we are within 48 hours of the onset of conditions.

I haven’t been plugged into any of the discussions this am but I’m gonna guess a TC warning from the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass, and a TS Watch out to Sabine Pass or Cameron, LA.

This seems just about right to me too.

[Cromagnum]

Mother in law suppose to fly in on Wednesday to visit us from West Texas. Should we try to bump her flight to Tuesday? And if so, is that even early enough at this point?

[Rip76]

Driving south from the Woodlands, looking in the sky, I will never get tired of seeing tropical cloud decks. It’s a thing of beauty.

[Cpv17]

Mother in law suppose to fly in on Wednesday to visit us from West Texas. Should we try to bump her flight to Tuesday? And if so, is that even early enough at this point?

Tomorrow and Wednesday will both be nasty around here.

[Rip76]

Lots of chatter on S2K that this thing may tighten up a lot and hit pretty far south, in which case, Houston will get less rain than has been shown in the last few updates.

There was one post (from an amateur member. based on one visible satellite loop, showing a swirl over land) with this assessment and someone else latching onto that post.

It’s still a disorganized mess. Careful with the “chatter” because that’s all it is right now.

Agreed. This mess is just a huge glob. The models are still having issues with all of this. I think we might know more when Recon gets down there.

Looks like recon takes off 11:15am.

[don]

Screenjshot 2024-06-17 a[...].png

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Screenjshot 2024-06-17 a[...].png

Perfect. Bring it.

[don]

GFS

Screenshrot 2024-06-17 a[...].png

[tireman4]

Radar at 11 40 am 06 17 24

[Texashawk]

Rain forming fast out in the Gulf, may be a wetter day than we think

[Cpv17]

Getting annoyed with how they’re all saying the highest totals will be along the coast when models clearly show big totals well inland.

[djmike]

When will Recon data be included?

[srainhoutx]

RECON is dropping sondes on this mission instead of looking for a spurious swirl. This should be a great system to shake the cobwebs off and get ready for a potentially active Hurricane Season!

[DoctorMu]

Starting to feel like this will impact farther south than most people think, frankly they need the rain more than we do!

Right now the middle Texas coast looks to be the hotspot.We'll know more through the day as we're now in range of the mesoscale models. FWIW the HRRR is painting some hefty rainfall totals and the event is still ongoing at the end of the 12Z run.


Screenshot 20d24-06-17 a[...].pnghrrre_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

Landfall will be west and south, but the moisture surge will be on the dirty side. It already looks like sea breeze wave on steroids. The easterly breezes here have cleared most of the haze. The atmosphere has that Florida/tropical look and that breeze. It's definitely like being in north Florida or the GA coast out there. There's a nice chill feeling.

Any week during the summer in CLL with tropical breezes, showers and no Death Ridge is a good week for me!

[Scott747]

Sounds like they will be starting at least PTC advisories later this afternoon or evening.....

[Stratton20]

GFS has a max bullseye of 25 inches, we really gotta watch and see where these feeder bands set up

[djmike]

So if the center relocates NE of the so called current center, how will that affect rain chances in SETX? More or less or really no change? Just curious

[Cpv17]

Looks like the WPC finally put some higher totals further inland but they keep the majority of the rain pretty far south. The GFS and some of the other mesoscale models are further north than what the WPC has.