2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

captainbarbossa19 interesting from the UKmet, think the wave the GFS is picking up on is pretty far south near CA, interesting to see the ridge doesnt build over texas again at least during the time the GFS has the wave approaching CA or the yucatan, so their may be room for a system to lift north into the gulf if thats the case, id say through the first half of september we got stuff to watch, atlantic looks to stay active the next 2-3 weeks

I don't think that wave will come towards Texas unless the ridge is weaker. Euro and GFS have a strong ridge develop over Florida and the southern GOM after Idalia leaves.

[Cpv17]

The last couple runs of the GFS look interesting. Too bad it’s 10+ days out lol

[cperk]

The last couple runs of the GFS look interesting. Too bad it’s 10+ days out lol

Yeah will see if it’s still showing this a week from now my guest it won’t be.

[Stratton20]

Given how the GFS has been absolutely utter garbage with genesis this season, its really hard to trust anything that model shows lol

[Stratton20]

Lol 18z GFS,
up to more of its shenanigans as usual

[Cpv17]

Lol 18z GFS,
up to more of its shenanigans as usual

Hey now, be nice, sir!

We need to be supportive of this model right now!

[weatherguy425]

Lol 18z GFS,
up to more of its shenanigans as usual

I'll say it again... pattern says watch the BOC and southern Gulf through the first week of September. Individual runs may be bogus, but pattern favors persistent storminess over a very warm body of water. Y'all need to keep a casual eye on it.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 oh no i agree, i just kinda like making fun of the models, especially the GFS with its crazy fantasy solutions, but I do agree the pattern is their for something

[DoctorMu]

GFS tops itself on the 0z run slingshotting a Texas hurricane following a Louisiana hurricane.

[Cpv17]

GFS tops itself on the 0z run slingshotting a Texas hurricane following a Louisiana hurricane.

And the 6z GFS is back to nothing lol

[cperk]

GFS tops itself on the 0z run slingshotting a Texas hurricane following a Louisiana hurricane.

And the 6z GFS is back to nothing lol

Man i'm so surprised

[Stratton20]

That model has been awful with genesis this year, hard to trust the GFS beyond 5 days lol

[snowman65]

Idalia gonna be cat 3 at landfall?

[tireman4]

DISCUSSION:

Area of Interest: Tropical Storm Idalia, located about 120 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, and is moving slowly northward with 65-mph maximum sustained winds. Idalia is likely to continue on a slow northward course and is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Afterwards, Idalia is forecast to strengthen more rapidly while moving faster north-northeastward to northward toward Florida, where it will most likely make landfall somewhere between the Apalachee Bay and the Florida Big Bend. On this track, heavy rains and tropical-storm-wind-force winds, along with the threat of storm surge, are likely to be felt along the southwest coast of the SFWMD on Tuesday and inland areas northwest of Lake Okeechobee late Tuesday through midday Wednesday. Rains and winds would gradually diminish from south to north and subside completely over the northwestern part of the SFWMD by Wednesday afternoon. These rain and wind effects will be felt well outside the forecast cone and could become more pronounced if the storm grows larger in size before making landfall, is stronger than forecast, or if the track nudges slightly east. SFWMD interests in the watch areas are advised to take the necessary preparedness actions, and all others are advised to continue closely monitoring the progress of Idalia.

[tireman4]

Gulf Temperatures

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Idalia Track Model Guidance.

[Cpv17]

We need to watch the BOC the first half of September. I’m targeting the September 6-12th timeframe.

[tireman4]

NHC Forecast Track

[Cpv17]

NHC Forecast Track

That part of FL very rarely gets hit.

[Stratton20]

Surge could be devastating in that area, some of those areas like tampa could see surge they have never seen ever, my prediction is a cat 4, im definitely also really concerned with the western gulf down the road, harold did little to mix up the waters