2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

From Mr. 57,

I was going to mention that upper low, as well as strong SW-NE winds aloft across the NW Caribbean. Anything moving into the NW Caribbean is Florida-bound. I'm thinking as early as Monday afternoon or possibly Tuesday. By Wednesday, it may be past Florida and heading out into the Atlantic. Not an ideal setup for strengthening. Could be anything from an area of rain to a moderate TS. I think chances are more like 70% than the NHC's 50%. They'll bump their numbers up by this weekend.

57 is the literal definition of a buzz kill and he’s quite proud of it.

[tireman4]

Well, this (way too early set of plots) would prove him right...

[tireman4]

I don't tend to get too interested until there is a legit disturbance, which there is now. The system has a circulation seen in both ship observations and ASCAT. Lifting north makes sense with the TUTT to north and west breaking the ridge and allowing system to lift northward. pic.twitter.com/7FftZjE4pc
-- Derrick Herndon (@DerrickHerndon2) August 24, 2023

[Stratton20]

Models are showing a back door front moving down, that’s probably why this system is being forecasted on models to hit florida, but models also show rain with the front here in SE texas, fingers crossed we get something

[tireman4]

Gert..maybe gone...


Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert has finally succumbed to the very unfavorable environmental
conditions it has been embedded in for the last several days. First
light visible satellite imagery shows the low-level circulation has
become very diffuse, and is likely very close to opening up into a
trough. In fact, the surface observations in the Lesser Antilles to
the west of Gert have been rising this morning despite the
circulation moving closer to them. In addition, all of the deep
convective activity east of the center has largely dissipated.
Based on these available data, Gert no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory.

The initial motion is a slow west-northwest drift at about 4 kt. The
remnant low is forecast to turn northward and drift very slowly
until it completely dissipates in about 2-3 days. The guidance is
in good agreement with this scenario. Future information on Gert
can also be found in High Seas forecast issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.4N 59.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 18.3N 60.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 60.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 19.2N 59.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 18.9N 59.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

[Cpv17]

Well, this (way too early set of plots) would prove him right...

Oh I know but he takes pride in being a buzz kill and getting underneath people’s skin.

[tireman4]

Well, this (way too early set of plots) would prove him right...

Oh I know but he takes pride in being a buzz kill and getting underneath people’s skin.

Meh,...most of the time it is sarcasm. LOL

[tireman4]

The UK Met on the "possible" disturbance in the Caribbean....

0Z UK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.1N 83.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 23.6N 82.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 24.9N 81.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 27.2N 80.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 28.2N 80.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 30.3N 78.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 32.1N 76.1W 1006 28

[Cpv17]

Well, this (way too early set of plots) would prove him right...

Oh I know but he takes pride in being a buzz kill and getting underneath people’s skin.

Meh,...most of the time it is sarcasm. LOL

Lol yeah that’s why I’ve just learned to ignore it. I got warned by the mods over there on S2K enough times. Even Jason gave me a warning on there a few years ago. He does a good job of being a buzz kill. He’s just built differently, I guess. Different sense of humor. I just choose to not even read most of what he posts anymore.

[tireman4]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is
forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Stratton20]

GEPS guidance is a bit interesting , last night it looked locked in on florida like the EPS, todays run that just comes out have more members just kind of meandering around in the central-western gulf at hour 126 with less florida members

[Cpv17]

The 12z EPS is exactly what I was talking about yesterday and will say it again. The faster it develops, the more east it goes. The slower it develops, the more west it goes.

[Stratton20]

GFS stalls a backdoor front in the gulf and then tries to spawn an area of weak low pressure off the texas coast at hour 162 fwiw

[DoctorMu]

Meandering is good.

[Stratton20]

Something to watch for is this weak front that models are in agreement on that will steer the caribbean system towards florida, models have the front pushing off shore, and some of the guidance( CMC) now starting to hint at a bit of a weak low pressure trying to form in the BOC, just a hint, but something to definitely watch for sure, never trust a front

[Stratton20]

GEFS has a bit of a signal for something else in the western caribbean behind this eastern gulf system at hour 240

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I know this isn't Atlantic based, but I'm really cheering for a couple strong recurving systems into the GOA this year. That could spawn a classic Nino year where not only do we get our Nino precip, but we get anomalous -EPO during a Nino year and a large SSW.

[Cpv17]

I know this isn't Atlantic based, but I'm really cheering for a couple strong recurving systems into the GOA this year. That could spawn a classic Nino year where not only do we get our Nino precip, but we get anomalous -EPO during a Nino year and a large SSW.

There’s too much cool anomalies in the GOA right now. Not a fan lol

[captainbarbossa19]

12z UKMET has an upper level low trying to work its way down to the surface off the Louisiana coast next weekend. GFS also has something coming towards the upper Texas coast, but in long range so it is too far out. We are not finished with tropical threats I don't think.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 interesting from the UKmet, think the wave the GFS is picking up on is pretty far south near CA, interesting to see the ridge doesnt build over texas again at least during the time the GFS has the wave approaching CA or the yucatan, so their may be room for a system to lift north into the gulf if thats the case, id say through the first half of september we got stuff to watch, atlantic looks to stay active the next 2-3 weeks