2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[weatherguy425]

Boy I love what I’m seeing on that last frame of the 12z Euro! Unfortunately, it looks like it’s gonna get sucked up by the NE trough and end up more in the central or eastern part of the Gulf.

For what it's worth (nothing at this point) that doesn't happen on the EPS Control. It misses the trough and gets buried into northeast Mexico as a ridge builds in. Hahaha.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the Nam is showing some development, and its north of the other models, time will tell

[weatherguy425]

Looks like the Nam is showing some development, and its north of the other models, time will tell

We need to have a disclaimer statement following every post about the NAM - lol.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the Nam is showing some development, and its north of the other models, time will tell

We need to have a disclaimer statement following every post about the NAM - lol.

Facts!

[Stratton20]

18z ICON is north agaib lol

[weatherguy425]

18z ICON is north agaib lol

Some of what is also happening is a more robust circulation is more likely to be impacted by the 500 MB flow (WSW, thanks to ridge). A stronger circulation may have a tendency to head to west, if not WSW.

[Stratton20]

GFS is a tick further north, but also weaker, not much rain on this run either

[Cpv17]

GFS is a tick further north, but also weaker, not much rain on this run either

It’s going to be hard to get any rain out of this system when we’re gonna be so close to the high pressure and have been extremely dry and hot all summer. There’s no moisture around the state. Nothing but dry air and soils.

[Stratton20]

RGEM also has a weak depression
CPV17 that is true, lets just keep our fingers crossed for a miracle lol

[don]

GFS is a tick further north, but also weaker, not much rain on this run either

It’s going to be hard to get any rain out of this system when we’re gonna be so close to the high pressure and have been extremely dry and hot all summer. There’s no moisture around the state. Nothing but dry air and soils.

That's why it would be good if we can get the system to turn into a full fledged cyclone or at least a potent tropical low.As im afraid if it comes in as an open wave there may only be scattered precip at best due to that ridge.

[Cpv17]

GFS is a tick further north, but also weaker, not much rain on this run either

It’s going to be hard to get any rain out of this system when we’re gonna be so close to the high pressure and have been extremely dry and hot all summer. There’s no moisture around the state. Nothing but dry air and soils.

That's why it would be good if we can get the system to turn into a full fledged cyclone or at least a potent tropical low.As im afraid if it comes in as an open wave there may only be scattered precip at best due to that ridge.

I agree completely which is why I’m more interested in the following potential system. This one doesn’t really pique my interest.

[don]

18Z ICON :Tropical Low that starts to wrap up as it nears the middle Texas coast.

icon_2023-08-17-18Z_120_33.333_258.6_23.5_273.733_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png

icon_2023-08-17-18Z_120_33.333_258.6_23.5_273.733_Vorticity_850_highways.png

[Stratton20]

18z Euro has a stronger surface reflection compared to its 12z run at hour 72 just passing the florida straights, this run only goes out to 72 hours

[sambucol]

What are the chances this system strengthens to a hurricane before landfall?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol i would say thats rather unlikely given it has 2 maybe 2.5 days over water before moving in land, also dry air looks to be around which could limit it, however it does have the warm water and will probably be moving underneath an anticyclone so shear wont be much of a problem, you can never say never when it comes to gulf mischief but i would say the probability of a hurricane is less than 10% just my two cents

[sambucol]

Also, there’s a system coming up over or near the Yucatan area into the GOM. The person said the Euro is showing it as a hurricane probably heading towards Texas around Aug 27. Has anyone here seen that Euro run?

[Rip76]

Also, there’s a system coming up over or near the Yucatan area into the GOM. The person said the Euro is showing it as a hurricane probably heading towards Texas around Aug 27. Has anyone here seen that Euro run?

Not a big fan of that date.

[Cpv17]

Also, there’s a system coming up over or near the Yucatan area into the GOM. The person said the Euro is showing it as a hurricane probably heading towards Texas around Aug 27. Has anyone here seen that Euro run?

Yes, that’s the one that has my attention compared to the first one. But still can’t overlook the first one.

[Cpv17]

18z Euro ensembles came in more bullish and seem to favor the Port Aransas area.

[Cpv17]

Also, there’s a system coming up over or near the Yucatan area into the GOM. The person said the Euro is showing it as a hurricane probably heading towards Texas around Aug 27. Has anyone here seen that Euro run?

Not a big fan of that date.

Late August and early September is peak season for us in Texas. I can almost guarantee we’ll get hit again on that date in our lifetimes.