2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

the 12z Guidance has shifted way south again and much weaker, the 06z EPS is still north of all the computer models

[brazoriatx]

It's going to bounce back and forth probably till sat or sunday..these runs will drive ya crazy man lol don't worry about till Saturday

[Stormlover2020]

Weaker will be south, no center so models will struggle

[don]

The trend so far today has been for a weaker system that stays an open wave or tropical low.Don't let your guard down yet though as these homebrew setups can be sneaky.And you can still get a quick spin up even without a lot of model support(Allison,Imelda as examples). We'll know more this weekend once we get an invest and have something for the models to track.

[weatherguy425]

A lot of the further north vs. further south variance seems to be stemming from which end of the N-S oriented wave axis takes over and possibly closes off.

[jasons2k]

A lot of the further north vs. further south variance seems to be stemming from which end of the N-S oriented wave axis takes over and possibly closes off.

Yep and right now the convection is favoring the northern sector.

[Stratton20]

Im wondering if friction from land could help to get the wave going? Sometimes that can help? I might be wrong though, but interesting to see the northern half of the wave is the active oart right now, could make a huge difference down the road

[Stratton20]

Euro coming in with a slighty more organized system around matagorda bay, it still favors the consolidation of the N. part of the wave, based on the convection right now favoring the N. Part of the wave, im starting to buy more into the euro solution , i think the GFS and CMC will cave to the euro eventually, really nothing is going on with the southern part of the wave

[tireman4]

What Wxman 57 thinks...

What do I think? I'm pulling for the ECMWF's track into the upper TX coast vs. lower coast. I'm not concerned about any wind issues across Texas. If there are some squalls with TS wind, they'll remain offshore. All it would take for the NHC to call it a TS is a barely discernible LLC and a gust to 35 kts in a squall. In reality, this system could only be beneficial for the VERY dry Texas. We could use a slow moving disturbance here. The disturbance will be battling dry air (all around it now) and increasing wind shear as it moves across the Gulf. I don't expect any rapid development in the Gulf. The low may not close off until it's moving into the Texas coast, if then.

[don]

Euro coming in with a slighty more organized system around matagorda bay, it still favors the consolidation of the N. part of the wave, based on the convection right now favoring the N. Part of the wave, im starting to buy more into the euro solution , i think the GFS and CMC will cave to the euro eventually, really nothing is going on with the southern part of the wave

One thing I've noticed is that the EURO has been pretty consistent that whatever form this feature ends up taking it will be able to bring rain far inland.At least along a localized corridor wherever the low ends up tracking.

Screenshot 2023-08-17 at 13-41-56 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

[Scott747]

Euro has been slowly 'caving' to the gfs and canadian with whatever vorticity there is more towards the central/southern edge of the axis. 12z is around Matagorda Bay with some rain s of 10 and into centex.

Currently looking like the best possible outcome. Only glimmer of hope is that both the Euro and GFS hints at some better organization as it nears the coast which could improve rain accumulations in a bit of a wider area.

[brazoriatx]

All speculation till it actually gets past the fl jeys snd into the gulf..anything can happen, mother nature doesn't always do what a computer says it will do..Wait and see

[Stratton20]

Lol the euro then tries to bring a system from the pacific into the western gulf, wild run

[brazoriatx]

Does it get tagged a invest tomorrow or Saturday? What say yall?

[weatherguy425]

Lol the euro then tries to bring a system from the pacific into the western gulf, wild run

It's happened a few times before. We will need to keep an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean in the 8-12 day period. Lots of unsettled weather tied to both the CAG/Monsoonal trough and remnants of approaching waves.

[Cpv17]

Boy I love what I’m seeing on that last frame of the 12z Euro! Unfortunately, it looks like it’s gonna get sucked up by the NE trough and end up more in the central or eastern part of the Gulf.

[Stormlover2020]

240 hours out long ways out

[Stratton20]

Support from the EPS and GEPS for another potential gulf system in about 8-9 days lol, looks like alot to watch the next few weeks

[Cpv17]

240 hours out long ways out

Yep. That’s why I focus more on the ensembles that far out.

[don]

We're now in range of the infamous NAM model. LOL

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png