Remnants of Gaston

[Ptarmigan]

We should keep an eye on Gaston still. Dan would of liked us keeping an eye on the weather.

[srainhoutx]

Over night guidance continues to suggest that Gaston could be a threat the Leeward Islands in the days ahead. A weaker disturbance would likely move in a westward motion.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Early Tracking Models...

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100904  1800   100905  0600   100905  1800   100906  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  46.6W   17.1N  48.8W   17.6N  51.4W   17.9N  54.2W
BAMD    16.6N  46.6W   17.0N  48.7W   17.2N  51.2W   17.2N  54.0W
BAMM    16.6N  46.6W   17.0N  48.3W   17.2N  50.1W   17.2N  52.2W
LBAR    16.6N  46.6W   17.3N  48.7W   18.1N  51.3W   18.8N  54.2W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          40KTS          48KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          40KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100906  1800   100907  1800   100908  1800   100909  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  57.2W   18.9N  62.9W   19.7N  67.2W   20.8N  70.1W
BAMD    17.2N  57.0W   17.3N  62.6W   17.8N  66.7W   18.8N  68.9W
BAMM    17.3N  54.5W   17.6N  58.8W   18.7N  62.4W   20.2N  65.1W
LBAR    19.3N  57.1W   19.6N  62.9W   19.1N  67.7W   19.5N  70.3W
SHIP        58KTS          77KTS          93KTS         107KTS
DSHP        58KTS          77KTS          93KTS         107KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.6N LONCUR =  46.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  15.9N LONM12 =  44.2W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  15.0N LONM24 =  42.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[/quote]

[srainhoutx]

Disco out of San Juan that I found interesting...

THE CONVECTION IN THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON HAS WEAKENED FURTHER
IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GFS 18Z RUN NOW KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN WAVE WHICH PASSES TO THE SOUTH...YES SOUTH...OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. THIS...HOWEVER...BRINGS THE BEST WINDS OF THE
WAVE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HAVE RAISED THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WINDS IN TO THE 20 TO 26 KNOT RANGE IN A
NUMBER OF ZONES...BUT THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE WINDS WILL
ONLY HOLD IF GASTON DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP. RE-DEVELOPMENT STILL
SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY. SEVERAL THINGS POINT TO ITS FAVOR. ONE...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION...KNOWN AS MIMIC...SHOWS A DRY SLOT
THAT IS CUTTING UNDERNEATH GASTON AT THIS TIME AND TRYING TO CUT
OFF ITS MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER THERE
IS ALSO A PROTUBERANCE OF MOISTURE SOUTHWEST OF GASTON THAT MAY
RE-CONNECT IT WITH MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ. TWO...THE STRONG TUTT
LOW THAT IS MOVING WEST OVER PUERTO RICO IS PULLING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ITS REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS IS SOUTHEAST AND
IS ALSO PULLING UP MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND IS FILLING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON WITH BETTER MOISTURE. WHEN THE LOW REACHES THIS SOURCE OF
MOISTURE IT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH...AND THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHETHER IT IS SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW GASTON TO REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...AS SOME
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT SEEMS
LIKELY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[srainhoutx]

Time to give Gaston some attention. The 12z GFS through 60 hours keeps this system undeveloped and heading W into the Caribbean S of PR.

[Andrew]

Time to give Gaston some attention. The 12z GFS through 60 hours keeps this system undeveloped and heading W into the Caribbean S of PR.

GFS looks to loose the system but if I tracked it right it should be right near the Yucatan Peninsula:

[srainhoutx]

Stays 80%...for now...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[sambucol]

I've read about a ridge running west in tandem with what will be Gaston. If that happens, what will stop it from tracking west across the GOM into the Texas coast? There's been talk that if the storm reaches the GOM, that it will most likely bomb and become a major hurricane threatening the Gulf coast. Any validity in these speculations?

[srainhoutx]

Ex Gaston may well be an issue before all is said and done...models are suggesting redevelopment in the days ahead near the Western Caribbean...

Code: Select all

351 
WHXX01 KWBC 071837
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100907 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100907  1800   100908  0600   100908  1800   100909  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  64.6W   16.6N  67.3W   16.6N  69.7W   16.5N  71.7W
BAMD    16.8N  64.6W   16.7N  67.4W   16.7N  69.6W   16.5N  71.3W
BAMM    16.8N  64.6W   16.6N  67.3W   16.7N  69.7W   16.6N  71.6W
LBAR    16.8N  64.6W   16.7N  67.6W   16.8N  70.4W   16.9N  72.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100909  1800   100910  1800   100911  1800   100912  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  73.2W   16.4N  76.5W   16.6N  80.9W   16.7N  86.0W
BAMD    16.1N  72.8W   15.6N  76.5W   15.6N  81.3W   16.0N  86.3W
BAMM    16.6N  73.1W   16.6N  76.4W   16.9N  80.7W   17.5N  85.6W
LBAR    17.0N  75.0W   17.2N  79.0W   17.6N  83.1W   17.8N  87.4W
SHIP        63KTS          81KTS          97KTS         118KTS
DSHP        63KTS          81KTS          97KTS         118KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.8N LONCUR =  64.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  17.1N LONM12 =  60.8W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  17.5N LONM24 =  57.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[Scott747]

LGEM which is becoming one of the go to intensity models has it bombing out to a cat 4. Quite a long shot (and don't really see it happening) given the state of the disturbance right now but if there ever was a area of the Atlantic basin to do it in... The NW Caribbean is it.

[biggerbyte]

Yeppers!!! This will be the next system to watch. X Gaston will not be heading north/out to sea, and it will not be going poof like some of you might be reading elsewhere. I'd be very careful about assuming anything with this. Convection is looking very nice today, and there is little doubt it will make it to the western Caribbean. A southern or western gulf issue looks to be a good bet, at this point. Watch it's progression, as well as the ridge to it's north over the coming few days. We in Texas could have more rain to deal with in the aftermath of Hermine.

[Andrew]

LGEM which is becoming one of the go to intensity models has it bombing out to a cat 4. Quite a long shot (and don't really see it happening) given the state of the disturbance right now but if there ever was a area of the Atlantic basin to do it in... The NW Caribbean is it.

You think that was bad look at this:

[Scott747]

LGEM which is becoming one of the go to intensity models has it bombing out to a cat 4. Quite a long shot (and don't really see it happening) given the state of the disturbance right now but if there ever was a area of the Atlantic basin to do it in... The NW Caribbean is it.

You think that was bad look at this:

lol

Now where did you get that image.

[Andrew]

LGEM which is becoming one of the go to intensity models has it bombing out to a cat 4. Quite a long shot (and don't really see it happening) given the state of the disturbance right now but if there ever was a area of the Atlantic basin to do it in... The NW Caribbean is it.

You think that was bad look at this:

lol

Now where did you get that image. [/quote


Found this one over on 2k but either this thing is going to go big or go home. There seems to be no middle right now with models. They either really really really develop it or nothing at all. Good convection at the moment though.

[Scott747]

That was one I posted at Eastern when I checked the 18z guidance. Someone must have grabbed it from over there.

Honestly though I put little stock with what the LGEM and a few others are showing right now. They have been bullish for more than a few days....

[Andrew]

That was one I posted at Eastern when I checked the 18z guidance. Someone must have grabbed it from over there.

Honestly though I put little stock with what the LGEM and a few others are showing right now. They have been bullish for more than a few days....

O haha how the cycle of pictures comes about. Yea as of now I am not putting much stock into the LGEM but I do think IF this storm does develop it could get strong. The problem is it has been struggling for a while to get anything together.

One thing that does spark my interest though, is the Euro showing a system near the Yucatan in 10 days heading for the western gulf. It has been showing that for the past couple of runs so that is something to keep a real good eye on.

[Paul]

wouldnt count ex-gaston out yet just by appearances tonight....but model support is nill except for the intensity models...really they are showing what a TS could do if it was established in the carib right now...Gaston is no where close to be being established attm... lets see what overnight and tomorrow brings.

[srainhoutx]

THE REMNANTS OF GASTON...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[wxman57]

Definitely an open wave now. Obs in the area indicate a wave axis, no more LLC. The end is near...