Remnants of Gaston

[ticka1]

The wave train keeps on rolling

Invest 98L now on the Navy site

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[ticka1]

[ticka1]

NHC has it at 10%

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

303 
WHXX01 KWBC 311241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100831 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  29.5W   11.4N  31.8W   11.8N  34.2W   12.2N  36.5W
BAMD    11.0N  29.5W   11.4N  31.7W   12.0N  33.9W   12.7N  35.7W
BAMM    11.0N  29.5W   11.4N  32.0W   11.8N  34.5W   12.3N  36.6W
LBAR    11.0N  29.5W   11.5N  32.3W   12.1N  35.1W   12.8N  37.8W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100902  1200   100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  38.4W   13.0N  42.0W   13.8N  46.1W   15.0N  51.0W
BAMD    13.3N  37.1W   14.6N  39.7W   16.2N  43.3W   17.6N  47.4W
BAMM    12.6N  38.2W   12.9N  41.1W   13.6N  44.8W   14.4N  49.7W
LBAR    13.2N  40.2W   14.3N  44.0W   17.2N  47.3W   21.1N  50.2W
SHIP        43KTS          50KTS          53KTS          61KTS
DSHP        43KTS          50KTS          53KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  29.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  26.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[desiredwxgd]

Pretty good convection starting to fire with 98L.

[srainhoutx]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.


Looking a bit better and now has some support from the CMC which looks to bring is to TS/HU status before reaching the Caribbean.

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye on this one. Some model support for a trek across the Caribbean. TWO up to 20%...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.





http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... ation.html

[ticka1]

@ 20% tonight....up from 10%. Wording changed too.

[biggerbyte]

Code orange... 50%
Models are all over it.

[rnmm]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Looking much better this morning. The slow and steady W motion should continue through the rest of the week...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we have TD 9...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al092010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009011308
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

133 
WHXX01 KWBC 011312
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1312 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092010) 20100901 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200   100903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  35.2W   12.6N  37.4W   12.6N  39.3W   12.5N  41.0W
BAMD    12.3N  35.2W   13.2N  37.0W   14.0N  38.2W   14.8N  39.2W
BAMM    12.3N  35.2W   12.8N  37.2W   13.2N  38.7W   13.5N  39.9W
LBAR    12.3N  35.2W   12.9N  37.6W   13.5N  39.9W   14.2N  42.1W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          46KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200   100906  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  42.8W   12.8N  46.6W   13.2N  51.5W   13.6N  57.2W
BAMD    15.8N  40.6W   18.4N  43.9W   20.2N  46.9W   20.1N  50.4W
BAMM    13.9N  41.4W   15.1N  45.0W   16.4N  49.6W   16.9N  54.9W
LBAR    15.2N  44.0W   18.4N  47.6W   22.6N  50.6W   25.5N  51.3W
SHIP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  32.1W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  29.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[desiredwxgd]

All lined up with another nice wave coming off Africa.

[desiredwxgd]

Not looking too bad this morning

[ticka1]

TD9

T.D. 9

invest_al092010.invest

AL, 09, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ,

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 011453
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALMOST HALF
WAY AROUND THE VORTEX. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1126Z ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT.

THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT AS IT IS BEING
STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE CYCLONE AND A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CORRESPONDINGLY ACCELERATE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
DISTINGUISHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET AND CANADIAN...AND THE GFDL AND
HWRF HURRICANE MODELS AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM-MEDIUM MODEL. THE
12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER TRACK PREDICTION
SINCE THEY WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE DEPRESSION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS USUAL...IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...THE VERTICAL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY THE MID-LEVEL CONTRIBUTION...IS MODERATE TO
STRONG. ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE OUTBREAK OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT
SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY ONLY CALLS FOR GRADUALLY SPINNING THE CYCLONE UP AND IS
CLOSE TO THE FOUR-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND NOGAPS
DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE CYCLONE EXISTS NOW OR IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. HOWEVER...A QUICK DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LIKELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.4N 35.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.6N 37.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.0N 39.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 41.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 42.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 45.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 49.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 53.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[biggerbyte]

So, Steve, what do you think of G.?

[biggerbyte]

Shouldn't someone change the title of this thread?

[ticka1]

I did. Sorry busy here at work and that's first priority. Now showing TS Gaston - then when it makes Hurricane I'll change it again.