Since Gaston weakened to a tropical wave, it may have a better chance of not recurving and heading into the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf once it re-develops.
yeah Andrew...I have been taken a vacation from you guys for awhile....but I am back....
Gaston is crawling....got to think it will be faster than this....6 days and finally entering the carib....sheesh...I dont know if I can watch it that long....
Paul wrote:yeah Andrew...I have been taken a vacation from you guys for awhile....but I am back....
Gaston is crawling....got to think it will be faster than this....6 days and finally entering the carib....sheesh...I dont know if I can watch it that long....
Yea it seems like forever. This could be a threat for the gulf. Also the BOC is going to be something to watch along with the storms behind Gaston. Should be a very long couple of weeks.
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Paul wrote:it does recurve off the EC and then into NJ at 312hr...
Yea I noticed from the 18z this run showed the trof a lot stronger, pushing the ridge west. This is 336 hours out though! 336 hours!!!!! That is a long time for this storm to track and not to mention the error spread that is going to come with that.
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CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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No faith at all. Not this time. With the other systems, a recurve was more likely than not. This time, it is just the opposite. Can it still happen... Yes! It is going to take a really strong trough that digs deep, and a weakened ridge. G. may come in too far south to get picked up, and we may have a weak system entering the Caribbean. Once these systems get into the central and western Caribbean, path prospects change away from an Atlantic storm. What we have seen so far is these Caribbean systems going into Mexico, and GOM systems going poof. We'll see how it goes with this system. Notice the large ULL/spin in the Gulf over the past few days. If that were to stick around as G. moves closer in....
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity