Remnants of Gaston

[biggerbyte]

Cool!!!



Hi, Ticka.

[Andrew]

Wxman's prediction:

"Do you think Gaston could end up hitting Southeast Texas?" Here's what he replied back: "Probably. I have it moving ashore just south of Freeport at 8:33pm on Monday, Sept. 13th."

*for those of you who didn't know, he was kidding.*

[srainhoutx]

Worth watching folks...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020255
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

GASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT
A RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS
COULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
STILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL
MAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW
DOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT. WITH THE BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Andrew]

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Gaston is more on a westerly track than Danielle, Earl, and Fiona. Also, it is further south. It is possible it may end up in the Caribbean. I would not be surprised if it becomes a major hurricane in the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

Gaston is looking like a threat to the Islands first and then perhaps on into the Caribbean...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020845
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED
TO A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GASTON REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GASTON IS
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...LYING IN
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

GASTON CONTINUES TO DECELERATE AS IT FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/8. GASTON IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY
48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 38.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.6N 39.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 40.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 41.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 14.2N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 14.6N 45.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 55.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN

[weatherguy425]

From HGX...

EARL REMAINS A STRONG HURRICANE BUT SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE
GULF WHILE UNFORTUNATELY AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. FIONA SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. TROPICAL STORM GASTON IS
VERY FAR AWAY...HOWEVER THE HURRICANE CENTER`S FORECAST TRACK IS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY AS
ALWAYS FOR THE LONG TERM.

[srainhoutx]

Back to a TD...but conditions look to improve regarding development in a day or two...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...GASTON WEAKENS...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 38.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 022032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...GASTON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GASTON...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[desiredwxgd]

You can be assured we haven’t heard the last of Gaston. Give it about another 24 hours. Steve, your thoughts? Anyone?

[srainhoutx]

I did have a chance to look at some of the models a few minutes ago briefly and I would agree that we may well see a regeneration of Gaston before all is said and done. If the models are correct, in a day or two the remnant low comes back with full force regarding development to a Hurricane near PR in six days or so. Still worth watching IMO.

[desiredwxgd]

Gaston, although not intimidating, still has some rather nice features to it. Void of any “real” deep convection but in my opinion it looks better tonight than it did earlier this afternoon.

[desiredwxgd]

Still not going to count him out.

[srainhoutx]

18Z at 384 hours suggest Gaston may be mighty close to home. Very long range and La La Land in the model world, but interesting none the less...

[desiredwxgd]

Doesn't look to bad tonight. A small amount of convection. A huge amount of convection to its south. I stick with what I said earlier, 48-72 more hours and Gaston will be back.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the 00Z has a good 'starting point'. If it develops prior to the Caribbean, we will need to keep an eye out IMO.

[Andrew]

GFS keeps it weak through 48H:

[srainhoutx]

Sniffing out the BoC as well.

[Paul]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif


due west...there has been hints of lwering pressures in the BOC for some time....CMC spun something up a few runs ago...

[Paul]

nice big fat ridge you should see in summer....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096l.gif