December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Stratton20
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We have the Cold air coming, thats one piece of the puzzle, but based off what im seeing in the GEFS guidance, the GFS operational should correct back to a more wetter pattern
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:12 pm We have the Cold air coming, thats one piece of the puzzle, but based off what im seeing in the GEFS guidance, the GFS operational should correct back to a more wetter pattern
Just keep the ridging away from the west coast and down into the Baja and we should be alright. Don’t like the look of the EPS/GEFS with ridging along the west coast.
Cpv17
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We need a neutral to slightly negative PNA. Keep that +PNA crap away!
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:56 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:55 am Nobody wants 20 degrees and dry lol
I’d take it in a heartbeat versus the crap we’ve had.
I think it's been great outside lately. Very pleasant.

20 degrees and snow - people will be outside. 20 degrees and dry - people will be inside praying their pipes don't freeze. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:25 pm We need a neutral to slightly negative PNA. Keep that +PNA crap away!
Slightly positive isn’t bad.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:26 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:56 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:55 am Nobody wants 20 degrees and dry lol
I’d take it in a heartbeat versus the crap we’ve had.
I think it's been great outside lately. Very pleasant.

20 degrees and snow - people will be outside. 20 degrees and dry - people will be inside praying their pipes don't freeze. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
It’s been soupy and nasty to me. Hard to run outside in this.

I’ll go for 10 mile runs in 20 degrees
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Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:26 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:56 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:55 am Nobody wants 20 degrees and dry lol
I’d take it in a heartbeat versus the crap we’ve had.
I think it's been great outside lately. Very pleasant.

20 degrees and snow - people will be outside. 20 degrees and dry - people will be inside praying their pipes don't freeze. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Even if it’s dry, I like to go outside and just experience the bitter cold. I find it very fascinating and thrilling. Now give me some snow with that cold and I’ll go nuts lol
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sambucol
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:24 pm Yeah, its not handling precip well. It's also probably 10-15 degrees too warm with a high that large.

With that said, SETX gets very cold.
Any idea how cold for SETX, and if we are sustained below freezing for a while?
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srainhoutx
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I spent the day outdoors getting things done around our 2 properties ahead of a prolonged cold spell. Life here in the Smokies is a bit different than preparing in SE Texas. Our houses are built to handle very cold temperatures, but some things need freeze protection when temperatures are expected to be in the single digits or below. We have a bunch of Guests arriving beginning this weekend in our two Airbnb short term rentals. Some are coming to ski at our Cataloochee Ski Area which is 10 minutes away or coming to enjoy Tube World here in Town. Others are visiting to hopefully see snow and enjoy the Holidays in the Mountains!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:12 pm
brazoriatx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:10 pm It's in the time frame of when they usually loose it or go off the wall..give it time..no need to freak out yet lol
It hasn’t lost anything. Well I guess if you put stock in precip maps over 5 days, it waffles back and forth.

I
Trust in the Southern Jet. ;)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:45 pm I spent the day outdoors getting things done around our 2 properties ahead of a prolonged cold spell. Life here in the Smokies is a bit different than preparing in SE Texas. Our houses are built to handle very cold temperatures, but some things need freeze protection when temperatures are expected to be in the single digits or below. We have a bunch of Guests arriving beginning this weekend in our two Airbnb short term rentals. Some are coming to ski at our Cataloochee Ski Area which is 10 minutes away or coming to enjoy Tube World here in Town. Others are visiting to hopefully see snow and enjoy the Holidays in the Mountains!
Sounds wonderful. I miss that area.
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Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:54 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:12 pm
brazoriatx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:10 pm It's in the time frame of when they usually loose it or go off the wall..give it time..no need to freak out yet lol
It hasn’t lost anything. Well I guess if you put stock in precip maps over 5 days, it waffles back and forth.

I
Trust in the Southern Jet. ;)
Yeah lol let’s hope it delivers.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cold front is in Magnolia.
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DoctorMu
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20°F drop in Dewpoint. I'll take that!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:41 pm 20°F drop in Dewpoint. I'll take that!
It feels delicious
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jasons2k
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Not liking this break in the line.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:01 pm Not liking this break in the line.
Oh no!

I’ve had a lot more than I expected tonight. I thought about you and figured you’d be happy too
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Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:01 pm Not liking this break in the line.
How are you posting 20 minutes in the future?
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:09 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:01 pm Not liking this break in the line.
How are you posting 20 minutes in the future?
The times on here are often jacked up. Happens all the time.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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This isn’t being talked about much but that next wave of cold (one before the big one) could make a difference.

Kinda similar to that first 2021 push before the bottom fell out.
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