February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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I noticed the NAM and HRRR models are starting to pick up the secondary disturbance that moves along the 59 corridor overnight Thursday.Fwiw the 3K NAM shows scattered sleet and freezing rain showers starting late Thursday night and lasting until Friday morning.
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Stormlover2020
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I don’t trust nam, hrrr it up and rgem it up
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don
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Both WRF models are getting onboard also, showing more sleet than freezing rain fwiw.
Edit: added a close up of the HRRR.
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Stratton20
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Looks like TAMU wont be closed tommorow, its going to be a fun day to be out on campus tommorow ☠️☠️🙃🙃
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Kingwood36
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Anyone think Conroe will get any ice? I wanna make sure my boss can't leave so I don't have to come in lol
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don
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12Z RGEM ice accumulation.Wanna see a few more model runs, but its starting to look like most of us will see some form of wintry precip Thursday night/Friday morning. How much though is still in question.
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Stratton20
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12z ICON
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mcheer23
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ICON now picks up on the secondary disturbance Friday morning
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don
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Yep there it is, potentiality two rounds of wintry precip.
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DoctorMu
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Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:56 am
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:52 am Interesting blake matthews just posted on twitter saying the cold air is arriving much quicker than what the models were showing for them, wonder what that could mean here ,interesting next 24 hours
That should mean the precip will be in the cold air longer than forecasted
Overperforming as expected.
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mcheer23
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GFS
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sswinney
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We now show a chance of freezing rain in Dickinson on the NWS forecast
Been here for years since Katrina.
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Stormlover2020
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Gfs shifted south again
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DoctorMu
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Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:19 am Gfs shifted south again
Yep. 3 inches of mischief near CLL, reaching down to NW Harris Co.. The power grid may not like this. :shock:

The high today had been progged at 72°F. It's not getting out of the 50s. :lol: These fake maps just keep on a comin' We'll see if CMC and UKMet were sniffing it out...

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don
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GFS is also now sniffing out the secondary system.
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Texashawk
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Looks like the front is just about to Navasota, but temps don’t seem to be dropping much behind it
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Kingwood36
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Texashawk wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:45 am Looks like the front is just about to Navasota, but temps don’t seem to be dropping much behind it
That's the first front
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Stratton20
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Texashawk give it some time, wont be long before those temps crash,
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don
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Texashawk wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:45 am Looks like the front is just about to Navasota, but temps don’t seem to be dropping much behind it
Thats not the front that may be a weak pre frontal boundary. The real front is moving into DFW right now.
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mcheer23
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15z RAP
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