February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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I noticed the NAM and HRRR models are starting to pick up the secondary disturbance that moves along the 59 corridor overnight Thursday.Fwiw the 3K NAM shows scattered sleet and freezing rain showers starting late Thursday night and lasting until Friday morning.
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Screenshot 2022-02-02 at 08-34-49 Models NAM — Pivotal Weather.png
Stormlover2020
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I don’t trust nam, hrrr it up and rgem it up
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don
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Both WRF models are getting onboard also, showing more sleet than freezing rain fwiw.
Edit: added a close up of the HRRR.
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hrrr_2022-02-02-12Z_040_31.726_261.863_27.985_266.276_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png
Screenshot 2022-02-02 at 08-58-48 Models HRW WRF-NSSL — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2022-02-02 at 08-59-20 Models HRW WRF-ARW — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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Looks like TAMU wont be closed tommorow, its going to be a fun day to be out on campus tommorow ☠️☠️🙃🙃
Kingwood36
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Anyone think Conroe will get any ice? I wanna make sure my boss can't leave so I don't have to come in lol
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don
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12Z RGEM ice accumulation.Wanna see a few more model runs, but its starting to look like most of us will see some form of wintry precip Thursday night/Friday morning. How much though is still in question.
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Screenshot 2022-02-02 at 09-19-27 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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12z ICON
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mcheer23
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ICON now picks up on the secondary disturbance Friday morning
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don
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Yep there it is, potentiality two rounds of wintry precip.
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icon_2022-02-02-12Z_039_31.476_262.866_28.5_266.306_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png
icon_2022-02-02-12Z_051_31.476_262.866_28.5_266.306_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png
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DoctorMu
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:56 am
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:52 am Interesting blake matthews just posted on twitter saying the cold air is arriving much quicker than what the models were showing for them, wonder what that could mean here ,interesting next 24 hours
That should mean the precip will be in the cold air longer than forecasted
Overperforming as expected.
mcheer23
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GFS
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sswinney
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We now show a chance of freezing rain in Dickinson on the NWS forecast
Been here for years since Katrina.
Stormlover2020
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Gfs shifted south again
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DoctorMu
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:19 am Gfs shifted south again
Yep. 3 inches of mischief near CLL, reaching down to NW Harris Co.. The power grid may not like this. :shock:

The high today had been progged at 72°F. It's not getting out of the 50s. :lol: These fake maps just keep on a comin' We'll see if CMC and UKMet were sniffing it out...

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don
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GFS is also now sniffing out the secondary system.
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gfs_2022-02-02-12Z_054_31.889_260.8_27.111_265.6_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png
Texashawk
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Looks like the front is just about to Navasota, but temps don’t seem to be dropping much behind it
Kingwood36
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Texashawk wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:45 am Looks like the front is just about to Navasota, but temps don’t seem to be dropping much behind it
That's the first front
Stratton20
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Texashawk give it some time, wont be long before those temps crash,
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don
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Texashawk wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:45 am Looks like the front is just about to Navasota, but temps don’t seem to be dropping much behind it
Thats not the front that may be a weak pre frontal boundary. The real front is moving into DFW right now.
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mcheer23
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15z RAP
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