Invest 92L Near the Yucatan

[srainhoutx]

Certainly some mid or even low level spin going on.

Loop...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 192245.GIF

Also RECON may be possible...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 04 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 05/1630Z
D. 23.0N 67.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. A 06/1800Z FIX ON COLIN IF STILL A VIABLE
SYSTEM NEAR 27.0N 69.0W.
B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1500Z
NEAR 16.5N 84.5W.

[wxman57]

The massive ridge over Texas and Louisiana (and quite a large region of the Gulf Coast) should steer any developing system west to west-northwest into Central America and/or the Yucatan then on into Mexico for the next week. Don't see any sign of the ridge decaying in the near future. So if 92L develops, it probably tracks across the mid Yucatan Peninsula (just north of Belize) then across the Bay of Campeche into Mexico, possibly up around the Tampico area or a little south of there.

I'm certainly not concerned about it hitting Houston. All the models would have to be completely wrong about the ridge for that to happen.

[Scott747]

Yeah that recon info gives a idea on the general area it will be heading. Far enough S that it seems like C America/Belize and possibly into the BOC for a short time would be the early prognosis.

[Scott747]

12z HWRF shows 92l clipping the YP as a weak system and moving into the SW Gulf.

[Scott747]

Still at 20 on the famous NHC percentage meter.

200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

2. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the convection has weakened a little from earlier today, but the overall appearance is still rather impressive. Another 24-48 hours and perhaps we will see an low level circulation form.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

583 
WHXX01 KWBC 041823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  1800   100805  0600   100805  1800   100806  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  73.9W   14.8N  76.7W   15.7N  79.4W   16.5N  81.8W
BAMD    14.0N  73.9W   14.9N  76.5W   15.9N  78.8W   16.9N  80.9W
BAMM    14.0N  73.9W   14.8N  76.6W   15.8N  79.1W   16.8N  81.4W
LBAR    14.0N  73.9W   14.7N  76.5W   15.7N  79.1W   16.9N  81.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  1800   100807  1800   100808  1800   100809  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  84.2W   18.4N  88.7W   20.0N  93.5W   21.9N  98.2W
BAMD    17.8N  82.7W   19.0N  86.4W   20.2N  90.3W   21.1N  94.5W
BAMM    17.7N  83.5W   19.0N  87.8W   20.8N  92.2W   22.6N  96.4W
LBAR    17.9N  84.0W   19.8N  88.0W   21.9N  91.5W   24.3N  94.0W
SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          77KTS          81KTS
DSHP        57KTS          58KTS          42KTS          47KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.0N LONCUR =  73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  68.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[wxman57]

I know the Euro doesn't show a closed low, but although its ~25 km^2 grids are the best of any global, well, I could see, if the Euro was right, based on grid scale resolution, a closed 1008 mb low with 30 to 40 knot winds. A genuine tropical storm a week from tomorrow at my house.


Just a possibility, but Euro has been King all season.

Maybe a very slim possibility, Ed. That ridge is pretty strong right over Texas, and it's not forecast to weaken for the next 3-5 days. My track is into Mexico south of Tampico if it develops. Don't think it'll get north of about 23N.

[srainhoutx]

Outflow boundries...(the line of skinny clouds to the N and W)...not looking good for development right now.

[Ptarmigan]

If the convection persists, I think 92L has a shot at becoming Danielle.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of spin detected this morning...

[wxman57]

But it'll be moving into the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras this evening. Time has just about run out on its chances of development.

[Scott747]

Still doesn't look like anything is organizing but former 92l in appearance stands out over the other two systems.

[srainhoutx]

92L is back...

Code: Select all

AL, 92, 2010080612,   , BEST,   0, 155N,  830W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,

[srainhoutx]

Nice banding features. The center fix is S of the stronger convection that appears to be a Mid Level spin IMO.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Best Track 18Z has shifted North closer to convection...

Code: Select all

AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009, DB

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 061816
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1816 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100806 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100806  1800   100807  0600   100807  1800   100808  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  84.6W   16.8N  86.7W   17.5N  89.0W   18.3N  91.3W
BAMD    16.3N  84.6W   16.9N  86.6W   17.5N  88.8W   18.0N  91.0W
BAMM    16.3N  84.6W   16.9N  86.7W   17.6N  89.1W   18.3N  91.3W
LBAR    16.3N  84.6W   17.2N  86.7W   18.2N  89.0W   19.1N  91.3W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          29KTS          28KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100808  1800   100809  1800   100810  1800   100811  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  93.5W   21.7N  97.8W   23.6N 102.0W   24.5N 105.9W
BAMD    18.4N  93.2W   19.1N  97.8W   19.7N 102.6W   20.1N 108.2W
BAMM    19.0N  93.6W   20.6N  98.2W   21.9N 103.0W   22.5N 108.6W
LBAR    20.0N  93.4W   22.2N  98.0W   24.4N 101.8W   25.7N 104.9W
SHIP        56KTS          71KTS          79KTS          81KTS
DSHP        36KTS          35KTS          28KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  84.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  15.0N LONM12 =  82.3W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  80.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

[srainhoutx]

Wide view of all 3 disturbances...

[sambucol]

When is the MJO supposed to turn positive and the shear dissipate?

[wxman57]

When is the MJO supposed to turn positive and the shear dissipate?

The best place to go for an MJO update is the weekly MJO update link here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

You'll need PowerPoint to view it. Basically, there's no sign of a true MJO for the next few weeks and probably not through the first week of September. It's weak and in the Asian region. Typically, an MJO signal takes a good 30 days to reach from there to the East Pacific. But since this one is weak, it probably won't make it. Shear, however, is steadily falling across the Tropics.