Invest 92L Near the Yucatan

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008040057
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010080300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 118N, 620W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 637W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 655W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 132N, 673W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 691W, 25, 1009, DB, 34,

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 040051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED AUG 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100804  0000   100804  1200   100805  0000   100805  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  69.1W   14.4N  72.5W   15.5N  75.8W   16.2N  78.8W
BAMD    13.5N  69.1W   14.1N  71.9W   14.7N  74.6W   15.4N  77.2W
BAMM    13.5N  69.1W   14.2N  72.0W   15.1N  74.8W   16.0N  77.5W
LBAR    13.5N  69.1W   14.2N  72.2W   15.3N  75.3W   16.3N  78.3W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100806  0000   100807  0000   100808  0000   100809  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  81.7W   18.3N  86.8W   19.4N  91.6W   20.7N  96.4W
BAMD    16.2N  79.5W   17.6N  83.6W   18.0N  87.5W   18.2N  91.5W
BAMM    17.0N  80.0W   18.9N  84.2W   20.2N  88.2W   21.5N  92.4W
LBAR    17.7N  81.1W   20.6N  85.6W   23.3N  88.5W   24.9N  90.4W
SHIP        50KTS          61KTS          69KTS          74KTS
DSHP        50KTS          61KTS          50KTS          41KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  69.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  12.8N LONM12 =  65.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  62.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Discuss away...

[ticka1]

Okay I am going to show my true colors here - but this is another Mexico storm. No worries for us here in SE Texas.

[Andrew]

Okay I am going to show my true colors here - but this is another Mexico storm. No worries for us here in SE Texas.

It could be 100 miles from landfall in Bangor, Maine and I can think of someone who would warn the entire seaboard from Tampico to Norway was still in danger.

You know I usually don't comment on this foolish trash talk between everyone but Ed you took it too far. All he is trying to do is warn everyone to just be cautious. It is ridiculous how you continue to "beat the dead horse" and make comments that are highly unnecessary. I remember one of your posts stating that you noticed no one posting unless there was a storm in the gulf. The reason might be because of newcomers and seniors (like me) being too afraid to post anything without being highly criticized. I am sorry but this forum is not going to grow unless people stop attacking one another. This is a forum about weather and lets keep it to that because it is obvious that we can not talk about anything else without fighting. I hope that this does not continue because one day there will be a storm that will threaten us and all this bickering will only filter out all the useful information. This is ridiculous and I am confident that I am not the only one who feels this way. Please for the sake of the board lets stop all the fighting and become the great board we once were.

[redneckweather]

Andrew, you can't take someone serious like Ed who actually got banned from a weather forum. A freaking WEATER FORUM for crying out loud!!!!

Hi ED.

[Andrew]

Andrew, you can't take someone serious like Ed who actually got banned from a weather forum. A freaking WEATER FORUM for crying out loud!!!!

Hi ED.

It's not just Ed it's a lot of people. Let's just chill. ( And yes I know by posting these posts I am feeding into the bad conversation but I feel it's worth it.

[Ptarmigan]

I am more concerned with 92L than Colin.

[srainhoutx]

HGX:

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND NHC OUTLOOK
ONLY HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[ticka1]

I am more concerned with 92L than Colin.

I agree.

I was being very negative earlier on my post.

Its time to watch and wait or is it wait and watch.

[Ptarmigan]

HGX:

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND NHC OUTLOOK
ONLY HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

I wonder if that would be 92L.

[srainhoutx]

HGX:

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND NHC OUTLOOK
ONLY HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

I wonder if that would be 92L.

Second feature suggests Upper Low.

[Stormrider]

I am more concerned with 92L than Colin.

I agree.

I was being very negative earlier on my post.

Its time to watch and wait or is it wait and watch.

"Watch and wait" usually works for me.

While we're watching and waiting, we could all have some Homemade Vanilla ice cream and chill.

Anyway, 92L doesn't look half bad, it might be a contender if the high sliding west weakens enough to allow it to miss the Yucatan.

[sambucol]

Second feature suggests Upper Low.

So, the second feature is something entirely different than 92L?

[srainhoutx]

Second feature suggests Upper Low.

So, the second feature is something entirely different than 92L?

Yeah sambucol. Upper Low and Low Level Circulation would be two different features I believe.

[sambucol]

Yeah sambucol. Upper Low and Low Level Circulation would be two different features I believe.

Thank you. It seems like the tropics have become active all at once.

[Scott747]

First few visible images of the day shows the area getting further away from SA. Not sure how far the wave axis has lifted. Might get a 30 on the next update, could even go orange.

[Scott747]

Negative on the 30/Orange. Not exactly a bullish TWO either.

800 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Large oval area in the graphic...

[Scott747]

Continues to build convection closer to the wave axis. Remains to be seen if it's just a pulsing pattern. The ULL mentioned in the TWD isn't that strong (so far) imo.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Caribbean Update from the HPC concerning our next MJO pulse...snip...

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
646 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

MJO PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY
THE CFS MODEL AND LATEST CPC ANALYSIS. BUT IT IS GOING TO BE A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE IT PEAKS...SO WE MIGHT GET A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

[srainhoutx]

I am going to make a general comment and I hope we can move on from this. The Mods (all of us) do try to let the conversation flow as the members want, but the petty back biting has got to stop. If someone posts something that you do not agree with, then ignore it or use common decency when responding. We do have a feature called friend or foe in the User Control Panel. I suggest that folks use that feature. I have been researching the Old Forum in the Hurricane Ike thread. These same 'issues' were prevalent then as today and that was a much more stressful time. No one should be 'afraid to post'. We may be a big dysfunctional family at times, but we do pull together when it comes to crunch time. We are far better than this folks. Let's move beyond this and enjoy the Forum. Life is too short and there are far bigger issues at hand other than this petty stuff. Rant over. Back on Topic.