Search found 1489 matches
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:48 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Recon is doing a traditional flight pattern collecting obs so it's talking a little longer. Now heading back towards the center and should get a new fix and if there's any pressure drop in about 30 min.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:03 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
I don't see any indications it's 'bombing' right now but it's clearly a different storm than the 10pm advisory.
Recon is turning around and we will quickly find out of there's a pressure drop. I'm guessing they are doing another pass so soon before coming out with a special advisory.
Recon is turning around and we will quickly find out of there's a pressure drop. I'm guessing they are doing another pass so soon before coming out with a special advisory.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:47 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Be a little crazy but there might be justification for a special advisory.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:43 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Even I'm a little taken aback by this new set of obs.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:41 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Potentially a little further up the coast than the current track.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:40 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Whoa! There are some strong obs in this pass.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:36 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Potential new center looks to be 24.4 96.1
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:28 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
The GFS, HWRF and the experimental hurricane ensembles have been showing a scenario of another reformation and a potential shift up the coast.
I don't think the shifting is done...
I don't think the shifting is done...
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:26 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Definitely believe there is a reformation of the center much further n. Hence the reason why the watch was extended to Freeport.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:24 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Hurricane watch extended to Freeport
TS warning to High Island
TS watch to Sabine Pass
TS warning to High Island
TS watch to Sabine Pass
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:20 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Looking a little more interesting further n....
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:12 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Recon peaked up to the ne and didn't find anything and now they are headed up further to the n where the biggest blow up of convection is.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:50 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Recon is back ne. Not sure if they are back to their normal flight pattern or trying to fix another potential center. Not much down by the area from earlier.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:18 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Recon is doing an unusual flight pattern trying to fix a center. Surprised they haven't headed to the ne to investigate that area.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:32 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Well let the 'center' argument commence! Cause it looks like there is going to be a few of them.
Does make the GFS and HWRF pinball movement believable while a dominant center eventually consolidates.
Does make the GFS and HWRF pinball movement believable while a dominant center eventually consolidates.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:06 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Well the early part of the recon mission isn't very convincing. Suspect we may be bickering about center 'reformations' throughout the mission.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:31 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
18z HWRF landfall is almost identical to the 12z. Just 9 hrs quicker and 15 mbs weaker.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:23 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
After seeing the early stages of the HWRF.... Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had. We could see a landfall nearer Jamaica Beach at this rate Overall it...
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:18 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
After seeing the early stages of the HWRF....
Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had.
Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had.
- Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:14 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
- Replies: 1416
- Views: 397414
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Also despite all the bashing of the GFS and praise of the Euro.... The NHC for now is siding with the GFS and HWRF. Hence the reason for the hurricane watch. I’ve noticed the Euro does pretty well on track but not so much on strength. The GFS has done better in that department imo. There was some s...