September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[TexasBreeze]

Back to the original coast rider track all of a sudden. May not be far enough east with more center reforms likely.

[Cromagnum]

Jim on 26 just showed where the center is fixed a good bit south of where was originally thought. I guess we can throw the next update in the trash since all the models would have initialized on the wrong spot.

[Stratton20]

Yep these 00z models have definitely initialized too far east with the center, center looks to be a little more west of where these model think it is, I highly suspect we will see a slight shift westward with the 06z models

[Kingwood36]

Jim on 26 just showed where the center is fixed a good bit south of where was originally thought. I guess we can throw the next update in the trash since all the models would have initialized on the wrong spot.

I'd trust my dog telling me about weather before I would trust "Dr jim" lol

[Cpv17]

The 18z EPS is nothing at all like the 0z tropical models. The EPS is well west of what that’s showing.

[jasons2k]

I’ve been thinking Matagorda since I woke-up and did my first run through on the weather. I see no reason to change my thinking yet. I didn’t post - I just got to work.

Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.

I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.

[Kingwood36]

I’ve been thinking Matagorda since I woke-up and did my first run through on the weather. I see no reason to change my thinking yet. I didn’t post - I just got to work.

Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.

I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.

I agree Matagorda,port O'Connor, port Lavaca area is where I'm at

[Ptarmigan]

Most recent EURO rainfall total forecast.


It has 42 inches of rain over Houston area. It far different from 61 inches of rain in Fayettesville.

Most forecast models have 8 to 15 inches of rain.

[Scott747]

Recon is doing an unusual flight pattern trying to fix a center. Surprised they haven't headed to the ne to investigate that area.

Recon is back ne. Not sure if they are back to their normal flight pattern or trying to fix another potential center. Not much down by the area from earlier.

[snowman65]

Most recent EURO rainfall total forecast.


It has 42 inches of rain over Houston area. It far different from 61 inches of rain in Fayettesville.

looks like harvey 2 to me...

[DoctorMu]

Man, what the heck? That’s a big east shift.

Yeah models getting data now

That would be bad for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana and would significantly reduce rainfall totals across Houston.

As expected. I'm going to call inland naked swirl after a day or two inland

[Cpv17]

Yeah models getting data now

That would be bad for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana and would significantly reduce rainfall totals across Houston.

As expected. I'm going to call inland naked swirl after a day or two inland

Not looking too good for me and you at the moment lol I know we both like our rain.

[Stratton20]

Latest aircraft reconnaissance passage shows the center is moving to the wsw a bit, models are initiating too far east, this is ridiculous

[DoctorMu]

That would be bad for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana and would significantly reduce rainfall totals across Houston.

As expected. I'm going to call inland naked swirl after a day or two inland

Not looking too good for me and you at the moment lol I know we both like our rain.

Yeah. Maybe an inch. Maybe two.

Concerned about our fatigued Golden Triangle friends.

[Kingwood36]

That would be bad for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana and would significantly reduce rainfall totals across Houston.

As expected. I'm going to call inland naked swirl after a day or two inland

Not looking too good for me and you at the moment lol I know we both like our rain.

I'm sure yall will get rain..everybody seems like they should get something

[txsnowmaker]

Most recent EURO rainfall total forecast.


It has 42 inches of rain over Houston area. It far different from 61 inches of rain in Fayettesville.

looks like harvey 2 to me...

It’s one model, and an outlier. Houston is not facing Harvey 2.

[txsnowmaker]

For a refreshing, “hype-free “ writeup, check out this informative piece:

https://spacecityweather.com/upgrading- ... -nicholas/

[Scott747]

Recon peaked up to the ne and didn't find anything and now they are headed up further to the n where the biggest blow up of convection is.

[Scott747]

Looking a little more interesting further n....

[Scott747]

Hurricane watch extended to Freeport

TS warning to High Island

TS watch to Sabine Pass