September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Scott747]

After seeing the early stages of the HWRF....

Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had.

[Pas_Bon]

After seeing the early stages of the HWRF....

Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had.

We could see a landfall nearer Jamaica Beach at this rate

[Scott747]

After seeing the early stages of the HWRF....

Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had.

We could see a landfall nearer Jamaica Beach at this rate

Overall it doesn't change the current track. The HWRF is bouncing around like the GFS did but the blended track is still towards Matagorda Bay.

[Cpv17]

HMON landfall Port O’Connor.

[Scott747]

18z HWRF landfall is almost identical to the 12z. Just 9 hrs quicker and 15 mbs weaker.

[Rip76]

Dry air over the The HGX area right now?

[DoctorMu]

Dry air over the The HGX area right now?

There's a lot less, especially at the mid and upper level. Have to go past Hearne and Del Rio for dry air. NE quadrant is going to be very, very wet.

[Scott747]

Well the early part of the recon mission isn't very convincing. Suspect we may be bickering about center 'reformations' throughout the mission.

[Stratton20]

Hurricane hunters just passed through the “center” it appears their may be some convection trying to fire near it, maybe no center relocation? This is confusing

[Stormlover2020]

This is what you will get with a elongated system

[Cpv17]

18z Euro is running.

[sambucol]

I’m just wondering when the bad weather gets to Baytown, and do we expect flooding along with high winds.

[Scott747]

Well let the 'center' argument commence! Cause it looks like there is going to be a few of them.

Does make the GFS and HWRF pinball movement believable while a dominant center eventually consolidates.

[Cpv17]

18z Euro stalls the system out similar to the 12z Euro. Not sure about rainfall totals.

[don]

Dr.Levi Cowan of Tropical tidbits just put out a video on Nicholas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpbNG3HfdEM

[Andrew]

18z Euro stalls the system out similar to the 12z Euro. Not sure about rainfall totals.

It's further east this time which is getting closer to the solution of the other models. If this run happens verbatim it would be worst-case scenario for Houston with over 20 inches of rain across the city

[Andrew]

Latest recon still shows a very broad storm with no real obvious center.

[snowman65]

according to the 7:00 NHC update, its only moving 2mph N....2mph??

[txsnowmaker]

For some perspective, courtesy of David Paul. Harvey scarred many people and lives. It’s important to keep things on an even keel here.

“It's too early to tell exactly what neighborhoods, which parts of town, will see the highest totals, but models suggest some spots could see 15"-20" by Wednesday evening. For comparison... Three days out from 'Harvey' models were spitting out rain total forecast of 35"+”

https://m.facebook.com/KHOUDavidPaul/vi ... cated&_rdr

[Stratton20]

It looks like Nicholas has stalled or is barely moving now