My bet is cold slide way further south and west than the models are saying... I agree. Models tend to be east biased with the cold air. Same thing happened back in November. Models were saying the coldest anomalies would go east of us when they actually came straight towards us. That’s just one exa...

Just wanted to say the trend on today’s models have warmed temperatures up a good 5-7 degrees for this weekend. A light freeze instead of a hard freeze basically. We shall see. Figures🙄 I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Global models do this a lot at this stage within 5 days. They tend to lose th...

This is what I meant earlier by saying towards the end of the month the coldest anomalies are aimed more towards Texas, rather than the east/southeast. This is what you want to see.

This is what I like to see folks! Horseshoe shaped blocking! Looks fantastic!! Lock it in please! This is off today’s 12z Euro:

So what happens if the PNA doesn't cooperate? Sorry for all the questions just trying to learn a bit lol A negative PNA basically is a big trough in the west and a ridge in the east. Meaning the west would be cold and stormy. Cold air likes to make its way south into the base of a trough. A positiv...

I’m loving the look on the 12z model suite today! Well??? Come on..spill it! Lol It appears as we head later into this month, instead of the coldest anomalies sliding off towards our east, they may head more in our direction. I always look up in Canada for the cold air. If it builds in central Cana...

Just wanted to say the trend on today’s models have warmed temperatures up a good 5-7 degrees for this weekend. A light freeze instead of a hard freeze basically. We shall see.

I’m loving the look on the 12z model suite today!

It's drastically different. I wonder what causes such drastic changes? Well the 18z had a massive 1055mb high dropping down the plains from Canada. This run doesn’t even have a high at all. So it loses the front completely. It still has the low/trough, but it doesn’t dig far enough south and west i...

0z GFS not nearly as cold as 18z was for mid next week. Probably not much of a winter storm on this run.

KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:15 pm Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.

Haha hey it’s fun!! We all know the consequences, but still do it anyway.

The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow

Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential ...

CRASHWX wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:01 pm 1ACEAA04-2D3F-4404-8914-E891950B68A3.pngTHIS DID HOWEVER SHOW UP ON 2-M GEFS

That actually looks really good for an ensemble mean. About the best I’ve seen yet. Much better than most of the op runs I’ve seen.

Models do not handle Artic air well...just an observation I agree 100%. The models are really struggling with the middle of next week right now. Neither the GFS nor the Euro have another strong front coming through. Just a weak one. And this weekends front doesn’t really appear to be anything out o...

12z Euro trended a tad bit weaker with the high coming out of Canada. Down from 1049mb to 1047mb. Therefore temps came in a few degrees warmer than the 0z run.

McFarland signature beginning to show up on the models.

With the GFS showing 3 inches of snow for the Houston area at hour 252, surprised this board isn’t a bit more active... ;) http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2019&model_mm=01&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=252&parameter...

The 12z Euro has lows in the mid to upper 20’s for next Sunday and Monday mornings for southeast TX. It also has highs on Sunday struggling to get out of the 30’s.