Drought Question

[jgreak]

Hey All, I had a question about our ongoing drought- from what I've read lately, this drought has a pretty good chance of continuing all the way until cold front season when we depend on frontal boundaries to bring our rain. But from what I remember from last fall and winter is that by the time boundaries made it to southeast Texas, the air was too dry and most of the storms fizzled as they made it into the area. My question is, wouldn't this be a similar situation this year due to our ground being so dry, in other words has our drought made it to a level where it will be self perpetuating, and what will it really take to get us back to normal conditions? (and correct me if I'm wrong about the reason for not getting much rain out of fronts last year). Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

We will need to see what September brings, jgreak. While the prospects for relief from this ongoing drought look minimal with a neutral La Nina and a return to another La Nina winter, tropical season is just beginning for us in earnest and I have a hunch that late August into September this heat ridge will begin to break down and open the door for a pattern change.

[Ptarmigan]

Forecasters warn drought may extend into 2012
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/met ... 83980.html

Code: Select all

One upside is that second La Ninas are historically weaker than the first, Halpert said.

If there is a La Nina, it should be weaker.

[tireman4]

We will need to see what September brings, jgreak. While the prospects for relief from this ongoing drought look minimal with a neutral La Nina and a return to another La Nina winter, tropical season is just beginning for us in earnest and I have a hunch that late August into September this heat ridge will begin to break down and open the door for a pattern change.

Larry Cosgrove thinks we may see something break the first week of September.


My thinking is, based on the pulsation we see developing into the Midwest and Great Lakes, that we get a meaningful cool intrusion around September 5.

http://www.facebook.com/#!/ryoum

I hope he is right.