2011 EPAC Hurricane Discussions

[srainhoutx]

While the EPAC is sometime ignored in our area, we have felt the effects of Tropical Systems that made landfall in MX in the past. Many will recall Rosa (1994) brought significant flooding as well as broken pipelines near the San Jacinto River. The GFS is suggesting some development near the ITCZ, W of the Gulf of Panama in the days ahead. This mornings EPAC TWD (Tropical Weather Discussion) makes mention of this disturbed area...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ NEAR 05N91W. THE CLOUD FIELD SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING AND EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS AS DESCRIBED
IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
PERSISTING OVER THIS REGION WHILE NOT MOVING MUCH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAKER 1011 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS NEAR
04N117W WITH CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.
A TROUGH IS JUST N OF THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM 12N118W TO
07N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH.





Visible Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-rgb.html

[srainhoutx]

EPAC TWD Update:

A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW PRES NEAR 04N91W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOW AND EVIDENCE OF SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE FACT THAT TSTMS
REMAIN PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW IN SPITE OF SEVERAL INHIBITING
FACTORS INDICATES THIS OFF-SEASON AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP
THE CIRCULATION VIABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH ONLY AT 15-20 KT
BUT THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF LIFE FOR THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC SO
FAR IN 2011. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT WNW THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.