Post Tropical Cyclone Shary SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

This distrbance will likey be Shary, IMO. Looking more impressive...

[Ptarmigan]

Something tells me once 92L enters the Caribbean, it will develop into Shary.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like we will be seeing Shary from 92L.

[srainhoutx]

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[wxman57]

Something tells me once 92L enters the Caribbean, it will develop into Shary.

You have the invests confused. 92L is 360 miles SSE of Bermuda. That's the disturbance the NHC is upgrading to Shary, not 91L which is forecast to enter the Caribbean.

[Ptarmigan]

You have the invests confused. 92L is 360 miles SSE of Bermuda. That's the disturbance the NHC is upgrading to Shary, not 91L which is forecast to enter the Caribbean.

My bad.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291143
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
800 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST
OF BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 291436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION...
CAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO
WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN
EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS
AT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING
TO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION
WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE
CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
TRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS
NEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING
IN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE
CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS
EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
OVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS
HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.6N 66.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 32.2N 64.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.6N 60.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 39.9N 52.9W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 31/1200Z 45.0N 43.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 302033
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...SHARY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 50.9W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES