Good call srain.
Here is my call, which I'm aloud to do since no one listens to me anyways....after blinding myself with models all morning, reading forecasts for other mets, going off of climo etc, I don't see this one going into Florida. If this system is able to stay away from CA and make it into the GOM, I'm thinking the central Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to Alabama will have to deal with this one. Right now I believe the models are overdoing the troughiness along the east coast. It will come into the gulf at a northwest heading then start to feel a little tug to the north and be pulled more to the north, not northeast. Over the next few days or so, models will start trending slowly westward into this area that I'm thinking. As has been the case with many of strong hurricanes over the years, it will bomb out into a strong cat 3, possibly 4 but will start a weakening trend before coming ashore, a la Katrina, Rita, Ike etc but still with plenty of whomp left in it to be a serious cane before reaking havoc along the gulf coast. I believe Texas is safe simply because climo says so. Thank you and have a nice day.
Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico
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12Z HWRF Wind Swath...and 126 hour zoomed nested...
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Well, I believe this will be either way south or way east. The time of year says so. With our first front due to arrive this weekend, 'tis the season for these things to be scooped up by the troughs and shunted eastward. I am amazed that the GFS has been hinged on this for days and days and very long ranges. If this develops, which it appears to be doing so, then the GFS will have scored big.
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GFDL wind swath...
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12Z Euro suggests a run at Nicaragua or Honduras in 80-90 hours...
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Good call, redneck. Excellent observation. If I were to guess based on how thing look today, I'd guess ne Texas coast, to nw LA. Folks in LA to especially watch this system. Now, what was that about no one listening???
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Euro @ hour 144...
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Srain, your comments about a nail biting, hair pulling few days are strongly agreed upon. My choice of words to relate what you said, of course.
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Hour 168...trough not as deep or strong...
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Maybe there should be some clarification about 'nail biting.'
Cause nobody along the upper Texas coast has anything to bite their nails about right now. That's just deceiving the less than informed folks that occasionally read the board.
Cause nobody along the upper Texas coast has anything to bite their nails about right now. That's just deceiving the less than informed folks that occasionally read the board.
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Scott747 wrote:Maybe there should be some clarification about 'nail biting.'
Cause nobody along the upper Texas coast has anything to bite their nails about right now. That's just deceiving the less than informed folks that occasionally read the board.
Which is why I try to carefully choose my wording around here.
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Hour 192...stalled off the Yucatan and deepening...
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Well as you know folks can become quite confused on how to interpret how we all view any long range threats especially when certain posters across the boards try and turn every storm into a IMBY threat.srainhoutx wrote:Scott747 wrote:Maybe there should be some clarification about 'nail biting.'
Cause nobody along the upper Texas coast has anything to bite their nails about right now. That's just deceiving the less than informed folks that occasionally read the board.
Which is why I try to carefully choose my wording around here.
At this point there is no indication that 95l poses a threat to SE Texas.
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Hour 216...slowy moving again near Cozumel...
Hour 240...
Hour 240...
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12z Euro full run slowly pulls it N/NNE thru into the Yucatan channel and around the tip of Western Cuba.
Slow mover for sure in a weak steering environment.
Slow mover for sure in a weak steering environment.
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High pressure building in @ day 10 on the Euro from the NW could be a fly in the ointment regarding future track. It would be helpful to keep this moving and not linger for too long in area that can provide the best environment for intensification IMO.
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Yes, I know, Scott. I just love to deceive folks. As a matter of fact, I live for it. That's the only reason I'm a member of this forum, afterall.
The fact of the matter is, no one knows for sure what this system will do just yet. You, and many other folks have thrown your opinions out there. I gave mine, as did redneck. Now, maybe I should not give possible landfall locations, but everyone in here reads my posts and can clearly see that it is a guess. I did say that. You are just being same old Scott. Badgering BB... I don't appreciate it. Steve, if you want to ban me. It is okay. You need to ban him for this continued harassment. I give my opinion like everyone else, and i want this badgering of his to stop.
The fact of the matter is, no one knows for sure what this system will do just yet. You, and many other folks have thrown your opinions out there. I gave mine, as did redneck. Now, maybe I should not give possible landfall locations, but everyone in here reads my posts and can clearly see that it is a guess. I did say that. You are just being same old Scott. Badgering BB... I don't appreciate it. Steve, if you want to ban me. It is okay. You need to ban him for this continued harassment. I give my opinion like everyone else, and i want this badgering of his to stop.
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Oh, and one more thing Scott. I never said that anyone in Texas need to bite nails, nor did Srain. Someone will get this system, so everyone in the Gulf, at some point will be wondering where it goes. So, read my post next time, and stop twisting my words.
lolsrainhoutx wrote:High pressure building in @ day 10 on the Euro from the NW could be a fly in the ointment regarding future track. It would be helpful to keep this moving and not linger for too long in area that can provide the best environment for intensification IMO.
Day 10. Hard to grasp that idea for something already in the Caribbean. Euro does seem to imply less land interaction which allows it the opportunity to intensify though that might limit it becoming a broader system. Must admit this could be one of the more interesting systems with all the scenarios in play.
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Dwayne, no one is going to ban anyone. Got it. Absolutely no need for this at all. My goodness, we are talking about something 10 days away. We all are entitled to our own opinions. This is a weather message board, not high drama or brain surgery. Let's not start this again for the umpteenth time. It has become very old and so unnecessary. Back on Topic.
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