Hurricane Julia Eastern Atlantic

Sat Sep 11, 2010 7:44 am

The Cape Verde waves continue...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201009111205
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010091106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010091006, , BEST, 0, 109N, 70W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 113N, 82W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010091018, , BEST, 0, 118N, 96W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010091100, , BEST, 0, 123N, 114W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010091106, , BEST, 0, 126N, 133W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Code: Select all

046 
WHXX01 KWBC 111207
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1207 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100911 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  0600   100911  1800   100912  0600   100912  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  13.3W   13.4N  15.9W   14.2N  18.6W   15.0N  21.9W
BAMD    12.6N  13.3W   13.2N  16.0W   13.9N  18.8W   14.7N  21.6W
BAMM    12.6N  13.3W   13.3N  16.2W   13.9N  19.3W   14.6N  22.5W
LBAR    12.6N  13.3W   13.4N  16.3W   14.4N  19.4W   15.7N  22.3W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          32KTS          40KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  0600   100914  0600   100915  0600   100916  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  25.2W   17.6N  30.4W   18.8N  34.5W   19.4N  38.1W
BAMD    15.8N  23.9W   19.6N  26.8W   24.9N  25.8W   28.6N  18.3W
BAMM    15.2N  25.4W   17.0N  29.7W   19.1N  32.4W   21.0N  35.0W
LBAR    17.1N  24.7W   21.0N  27.2W   26.3N  26.0W   30.9N  18.6W
SHIP        48KTS          61KTS          61KTS          56KTS
DSHP        48KTS          61KTS          62KTS          57KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.6N LONCUR =  13.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  11.8N LONM12 =   9.6W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  10.9N LONM24 =   7.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   15KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:44 pm

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:03 am

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Sun Sep 12, 2010 7:44 am

Looks like we have a TD...

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 12, 2010, DB, O, 2010091106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL122010
AL, 12, 2010091006, , BEST, 0, 109N, 70W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 113N, 82W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091018, , BEST, 0, 118N, 96W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091100, , BEST, 0, 123N, 114W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 12, 2010091106, , BEST, 0, 126N, 133W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 12, 2010091112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 161W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 121N, 172W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 122N, 182W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 195W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 12, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 125N, 208W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:56 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 21.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO
TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

Sun Sep 12, 2010 3:46 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 122037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WILL PASS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 22.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:59 pm

We have Julia:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 130245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...TENTH OF THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 23.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:55 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131145
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
800 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...130 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:00 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131447
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 26.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:16 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 132038
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...JULIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS STILL IN EFFECT...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 27.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:04 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 140836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE
FIFTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Tue Sep 14, 2010 3:44 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 142036
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...JULIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 30.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

Wed Sep 15, 2010 7:10 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:02 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 151453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 32.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Wed Sep 15, 2010 4:15 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 152044
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...JULIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 33.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

Wed Sep 15, 2010 7:18 pm

Somehow, I knew that Julia would be a major hurricane.

Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:18 pm

Julia is an impressive hurricane, but not impressive as Igor is. Is it feasible that some of Hurricane Julias' outer rainbands could affect not only the Canary Islands but also the Azores Isklands as well?

Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:49 am

Hurricane Julia is on the verge of blundering into enormous brother Hurricane Igor. That storm still has good and deep tropical convection with it.

Hurricane Julia Eastern Atlantic

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