First Cold Front

[tireman4]

We used to do this a LONG time ago, but I will post this and see what you all think.

For me, I will go with what Steve and Dan Meador always preached, "if in doubt" go with Climo. For me, September 25th. What say you all?

[Rip76]

I can't really go against that.

So I'll go the week before that Sept. 18th.

[DoctorMu]

We just had one...but it wasn't exactly "cold." A 6-8 °F drop in dewpoint

If we define as lows north of I-10 in the upper 50s, then October 8th.

[BlueJay]

October 10, 2020.

[Texaspirate11]

All i know is that September 24th shuts the window, generally to our cane season - generally.

[DoctorMu]

All i know is that September 24th shuts the window, generally to our cane season - generally.

Right - the Death Ridge is in hibernation and the Bermuda High becomes the prevailing steering current even in the GoM, turning tropical systems north along the eastern seaboard.

[tireman4]

This is still up ..lol

[Cromagnum]

This year, im gonna say we get no reprieve from the heat until November (sadly)

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lol, first cold front will be the week of September 7th... a few weeks early.

[Texaspirate11]

I love Luch's forecasts - he's hysterical HGX:

So...when do we see change? That depends on who you ask. We have
definitely started to hear the buzz about a big early fall cold
front, and it`s true that some of the guidance suggests this. But
this is no slam dunk, and we`re going to have to do a lot of data
evaluation in the coming days to discern how this plays out. So,
for now, keep an eye on the middle of next week for more of a
taste of fall, but...maybe don`t start pulling sweaters and
jackets out of storage just yet.

Then he says "In short where there is sun, it's STUPID HOT>"
love it

[DoctorMu]

I can't really go against that.

So I'll go the week before that Sept. 18th.

You have a chance this week. The 9th and the 10th.

[Cpv17]

You guys may have to wait a bit longer for your first cold front.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 062058
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
358 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020


.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Labor Day Afternoon]...

High pressure still holding the lid on storms across the northeast
but where the deeper moisture persists in the southwest counties and
more favorable seabreeze convergence seeing development of showers
and thunderstorms. Expect these to increase in coverage through 5 pm
then start to diminish and shift a little further inland. Loss of
heating should spell the demise of these and overnight a quiet night
with some cirrus traversing the area. The mid level upper ridging
centered over Galveston Bay this afternoon wobbles first southwest
into the Gulf waters south of Matagorda overnight then eastward to
south of LA by Monday afternoon. This should help to moisten up the
column and reduce some of this afternoon`s CIN. Toward morning
showers developing in the nearshore waters and spreading inland
during the morning hours. Humidity will be be a tad higher and heat
indices should be climbing rapidly along the immediate coast and 103-
105 will be possible there by noon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon mainly the Liberty-Houston-Columbus
area southward more isolated to the north.

45


.LONG TERM [Labor Day Evening Through Sunday]...

The beginning of the work week still looks to be a wet one with
global models continuing to indicate strong onshore moisture
transport which should push surface PWs into the 1.75 to 2.0 in
range. Meanwhile, the approach of a shortwave trough axis on
Tuesday will prove favorable for the development of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the approach of the front. The weak jet
streak noted in yesterday`s discussion does not look quite as
formidable, but much of the area should still be situated in its
left exit region. Have continued to keep PoPs highest west of the
I-45 corridor with model guidance continuing to show best
moisture availability in and around Matagorda Bay.

The main weather story in the extended term continues to be the
approach of a cold front on Wednesday and Thursday. For those
hoping to step outside and feel crisp autumn air on your face, the
12Z suite of deterministic model solutions unfortunately has some
bad news for you. The past few model cycles have exhibited a
notable contrast between the GFS & ECMWF depictions of the
approaching front, with the GFS brining the boundary through SE
TEX and into the coastal waters and the ECMWF keeping it mostly
out of the CWA. With the 12Z runs, the GFS has backed off on both
the strength and speed of the front as now looks to approach the
area late Wednesday night and reach the coastal waters during the
day on Thursday. Weaker advection behind the front, although
bringing temps and dew points down to more comfortable levels,
have brought the solution closer to the ECMWF`s numbers. This
shift has been reflected in the latest national blends, and as a
result have bumped up temps in the extended forecast. Still
expecting shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary,
and have kept PoPs in the 40-70% range through Thursday morning.
With that being said, all hope is not yet lost for those looking
for a true taste of fall as the 18Z NAM still favors a stronger
boundary to approach the area by late Wednesday, though slowing
considerably compared to the 12Z run. Will need to watch future
runs as the frontal passage moves further into the NAM`s temporal
range.

Behind the departing front, lingering showers and storms should
persist through Thursday. Offshore flow looks to take hold well
into the weekend, which should keep inland dew points in the 60s
and, highs in the upper 80s to around 90, and lows in the upper
60s to low 70s. ECMWF solution continues to show the approach of
an inverted trough heading into the weekend, which will support
the development of additional scattered to isolated showers and
storms.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

The lighter winds across the region today and Monday will give way
to stronger southeasterly flow Tuesday as the aforementioned upper
trough digs down into the 4 Corners and the ENE. The main issue is
the cold front Wednesday late or Thursday...the models have trended
slower with the frontal push to the coast and weaker with the
ensuing CAA...have trended that way as well with the arrival time
more along the lines of Thursday morning with SCEC conditions in the
wake of the front persisting through Friday. Still a good deal of
uncertainty on the timing and strength of the front. Stay tuned.

Across the tropical Atlantic will be watching the 4 systems of
interests. Currently the greatest chances for intensification appear
to be over the MDR and likely posing no threat to SETX with these
headed north into the Central Atlantic per the GFS/ECMWF. Will need
to keep an eye on the system in the Caribbean which may struggle to
develop much if at all but could eventually bring some deeper
moisture into the southwestern Gulf Friday/Saturday.

45

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR. VCSH/VCTS for sites IAH/HOU southward 20z through 00z as
seabreeze works inland shifting winds from ENE to SE. Overnight
patchy cirrus and then spotty showers near the coast with lower
MVFR ceilings near 12z spreading inland with rising ceilings
through late morning. UTS area will probably see some MIFG
conditions again Labor Day morning for a couple of hours near
sunrise.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 93 73 89 72 / 0 10 0 50 50
Houston (IAH) 76 95 77 91 77 / 10 20 10 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 89 81 / 10 20 10 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45

[tireman4]

Still sticking with September 24th, although I hope I am wrong.

[Stormlover2020]

Knew the models were wrong!!! Always are this early in sept with cold fronts

[DoctorMu]

I can't really go against that.

So I'll go the week before that Sept. 18th.

You have a chance this week. The 9th and the 10th.

Or not.

My October prediction is still safe!

[GBinGrimes]

Knew the models were wrong!!! Always are this early in sept with cold fronts

Models 7 - 10 days out with that level of depth protruding that far south seem to ALWAYS be wrong, even in the depths of winter. I look at them, my eyes glaze over with wistful thoughts of "just maybe..." and then reality angrily slams the door.

I'll be glad to have the rain from a stalled frontal system.

First front...January 12.

The super typhoon will have buckled the jet stream backwards. The wildfires on the western side of the continent will foster their own climatology and spread it's heat eastward, capping the cold in the northern Rockies and upper Midwest. The deer season will have 1 day of rut, with deer going nocturnal for 2 full months to stay cool and sleeping in deer hammocks during the day.

For those of us who love the cold, the Climate Prediction Center is NOT our friend. YUK!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... php?lead=2

[Kingwood36]

October 4th

[Cpv17]

Knew the models were wrong!!! Always are this early in sept with cold fronts

Models 7 - 10 days out with that level of depth protruding that far south seem to ALWAYS be wrong, even in the depths of winter. I look at them, my eyes glaze over with wistful thoughts of "just maybe..." and then reality angrily slams the door.

I'll be glad to have the rain from a stalled frontal system.

First front...January 12.

The super typhoon will have buckled the jet stream backwards. The wildfires on the western side of the continent will foster their own climatology and spread it's heat eastward, capping the cold in the northern Rockies and upper Midwest. The deer season will have 1 day of rut, with deer going nocturnal for 2 full months to stay cool and sleeping in deer hammocks during the day.

For those of us who love the cold, the Climate Prediction Center is NOT our friend. YUK!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... php?lead=2

I really only like the cold if it snows or gets record breaking cold. I love extreme weather events. Otherwise I’d rather it be warm because warmth usually provides more heavy rains and warm temps don’t really bother me. Plus the cold makes me sick. Well the temperature swings are what actually makes me sick. Happens every year October through March.