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When should we see the tug NW/N IF it happens?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:34 pm Its the hwrf tho lol

Lol lol

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:34 pm Its the hwrf tho lol

I'm not picking on ya but you look at it like this.

The HWRF is a model that the nhc specifically uses in their forecasting.

And despite the Ukie being on an island by itself not only was the operational rum mentioned in the last disco but the ensembles were as well.

Friend of mine on Bolivar said really bad storm came thru. I think winds clocked 60 mph
She said there is some minor damage around.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:47 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:34 pm Its the hwrf tho lol

I'm not picking on ya but you look at it like this.

The HWRF is a model that the nhc specifically uses in their forecasting.

And despite the Ukie being on an island by itself not only was the operational rum mentioned in the last disco but the ensembles were as well.

Oh there was definitely rum involved with these models...no other explanation.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:53 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:47 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:34 pm Its the hwrf tho lol

I'm not picking on ya but you look at it like this.

The HWRF is a model that the nhc specifically uses in their forecasting.

And despite the Ukie being on an island by itself not only was the operational rum mentioned in the last disco but the ensembles were as well.

Oh there was definitely rum involved with these models...no other explanation.

No harm no foul..i just always heard it wasnt the best

If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

stormlover wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:02 pm If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

How much faith are you putting in to it?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:03 pm

stormlover wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:02 pm If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

How much faith are you putting in to it?

Lol man I have no clue I know it’s a good model, been consistent the last 3 days with its prediction and we are 2 days out but who knows lol

stormlover wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:02 pm If the ukmet is right these meteorologists are going to be pissed

Frankly, "these" meteorologists have been offering many hints of their uncertainty regarding the movement of this messy tropical system. You even see it mentioned by our own HGX forecasters...repeatedly over the past 24 hours. These meteorologists tend not to be "model huggers" and know to respect the uncertainties of forecasting. When you get 'burned', you'll understand how personal they take "missing" the forecast...

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:45 pm When should we see the tug NW/N IF it happens?

Should start tomorrow afternoon or evening at the earliest.

Still moving West at 3mph now...

A few pulses of tstorms coming in on the E and SE sides of town

Question. What are the chances this thing comes to a complete halt for a bit and if that were to happen, what would it do to the track? Was moving at 5mph and now 3mph west...Makes me wonder if barry may be deciding which route he wants to take. TIA

Ukmet still holding his ground?

Was there supposed to be a new discussion at 7? Or is it just the strength and movement on the map update?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:37 pm Ukmet still holding his ground?

Next run doesn’t come out until midnight-ish

Here are the latest 18z spaghetti models...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

UK model has tracked further west from earlier to glide Barry right through Houston.

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:38 pm Was there supposed to be a new discussion at 7? Or is it just the strength and movement on the map update?

they are issued every 6 hours https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Produc ... iption.pdf

Availability: Tropical Cyclone Discussions are part of a suite of products issued for active cyclones every six hours at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. Local issuance times are shown in the table below. Special Discussions may be issued at any time to advise of an unexpected significant change in the cyclone or when watches or warnings are to be issued

Well you can’t ever say the UKMET is a waffler.