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The 00Z European suggests a TS near Sabine Pass.

The 2AM Tropical Weather Outlook now has development up to 70% during the next 5 days. In addition, some models have shift more W toward the NW GOM.

Up to 80%.

The 06Z GFS suggests the Middle Texas Coast for landfall of a ragged tropical disturbance. Even the German ICON model has shifted W toward the Central/SW Coast of Louisiana.

The upper level vorticity that is expected to spawn our tropical disturbance is dropping toward the Gulf from Georgia.

It's time to begin monitoring the weather a bit more carefully and perhaps have a chat with those that may not pay attention to the weather forecasts.

When is this thing suppose to make landfall? If it even does become a tropical system

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

Threat has increased westward overnight along the LA and TX coasts.

Discussion:
Mid level (850mb) disturbance over GA is continuing to move SSE/S this morning and will be moving into N FL and eventually the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Global models are now in good agreement that this feature will work its wat from the 850mb level to the surface resulting in the formation of a tropical depression over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify with a large 200mb high pressure ridge over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf.

Track:
While there was much spread and disagreement yesterday, starting yesterday afternoon and continuing overnight, that spread has decreased into a solution where any Gulf system would tend to track more westward. The GFS has abandoned the idea of the system remaining close to the FL coast and is now in fair agreement with the ECMWF of a slow westward track across the Gulf of Mexico. Most models now indicate a threat westward along the US Gulf coast toward TX and LA. As mentioned yesterday, both the westward and eastward track solution were viable, and it appears we are starting to see a trend toward the westward solution being the more favored. This more westward solution is likely due to a more WSW movement of the system in the Gulf of Mexico and the formation and building of a mid level high pressure ridge over the southern US mid to late week which would prevent any trough near the Great Lakes from pulling the system northward.

Intensity:
While there is better agreement on the track this morning there remains a lot of spread on the intensity with the ECWMF model continuing to be the strongest. Looking at the upper air and surface features for a moment suggest that any storm in the Gulf will likely intensify. Upper level winds are forecast to be light with the surface feature located under a 200mb anticyclone which will help vent the surface low and provide good upper level outflow. Additionally, the system would appear to move over the warm Gulf waters with temperatures in the 84-86 degree range and per latest oceanic heat content there is plenty of heat content for development. Models also show the system slowing its westward movement allowing a longer time over those warm Gulf waters. A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question.

Impacts:
For now will not make any changes to the ongoing forecast for late this week/weekend. If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the NW Gulf…significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.

Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Check hurricane preparation kits and plans and be ready to enact those plans this week. Monitor weather forecast closely.

Euro.....this is just for entertainment purposes only...

The NHC has declared INVEST 92L for the potential Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:12 am Euro.....this is just for entertainment purposes only...

Dont you be dissin my Euro

GFS..for entertainment purposes...

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:40 am

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:12 am Euro.....this is just for entertainment purposes only...

Dont you be dissin my Euro

Ha!

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081213
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
713 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of patchy fog will occansionally affect CLL, CXO, LBX, and
possibly UTS during the next two hours or so and may result in
periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected during the rest of the forecast period. Iso SHRA/TSRA
could develop this afternoon over Harris county and vicinity. VCSH
are in place for IAH/HOU at the moment, but TEMPOs could be
issued this afternoon for TS development. S to SW winds at 5-10
kts expected today, with light and variable winds expected
overnight and early Tuesday morning. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Patchy fog again this morning mainly over the more rural areas and
so far only limiting visibility to 4-5 miles. This should continue
through sunrise and could expand a little and thicken. Don`t
anticipate the need for dense fog advisory. Today with deeper
moisture (PW 1.7-1.") over the eastern zones expect to see
at least a few showers/thunderstorms develop along the afternoon
bay-breeze and spread into the Houston/I-45 corridor southward.
Hot again with heat index readings of 104-107 today and may flirt
with the 108 mark in the east where it is more humid. Overnight
tonight expect mostly clear skies and some patchy fog again being
possible. Rain chances look a little lower Tuesday with more
capping and slightly less moisture. Any storms that do develop
should be capable of strong gusty winds.
45

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Oh how things have changed. Hot weather still on track for
Wednesday and Thursday. Heat index readings of 103 to 107 look to
be commonplace while closer to the coast - mainly southeast of the
I-69 corridor 106-110 will be more likely. Heat advisories
possible. Low rain chances Wednesday with drier air mixing down.
Thursday though rain chances increase over the southeastern 1/2 of
the region. Have boosted rain chances based on the track of the
potential tropical disturbance that will be moving into the Gulf
and then possible south turning to the west and meandering
westward Wed-Fri or possibly north. Very unsettled weather as much
will hinge on this track. Expect lots of changes to the forecast
in the coming days. If if doesn`t come this way then hot to very
hot conditions on tap if it does come this way then
showers/thunderstorms and cooler.
45

MARINE...

Light to moderate south to southwest winds expected over the bays
and local waters through mid week as a mid to upper level ridge
continues to expand over Texas. A diurnal pattern of lighter winds
during the day and slightly stronger winds during the night is
expected. Light west to northwest wind flow expected Wednesday night
and Thursday as the ridge expands further north.

Near the end of the work week, an area of low pressure is forecast
to develop across the northeastern Gulf waters. There are still too
many uncertainties regarding the development and track of the low,
thus, the direct impacts are yet unknown at this moment. Possible
impacts may include higher winds and seas, long period swells, high
rip current risk, and coastal flooding.

Mariners should continue to monitor the marine forecasts for the
latest information.
24

TROPICAL...
Upper level circulation over Mississippi this morning should
slowly dip southward out into the northeastern portions of the
Gulf. National Hurricane Center has trended upwards on the chance
of development and as of 2 am was at 70 percent. The environment
that the system will move into looks conducive to development.
Very low shear a tap of deep moisture to the south and east of the
system and sufficiently warm water in the Gulf. The GFS/ECMWF have
been differing on the track of the system but in the latest runs
have taken the system either further south (ECMWF) or a little
further west-southwest (GFS-FV3) through Thursday morning. What
becomes more worrisome is the slowing movement south of LA...right
near or just over the Loop Current Thursday during the day. The
models showing somewhere on the order of only 5-8 knots of
movement and this would give it plenty of time over the higher
energy waters. By Friday 12z the GFS/ECMWF are only off on the
center of the circulation by about 90 miles and still chugging
slowly westward. Needless to say this could bode poorly for TX/LA
with the GFS bringing it in near Matagorda Bay and the ECMWF near
Beaumont both having impacts across SETX. This is getting out
there beyond 120 hours into the future and much can change with
the strength of the upper ridge near the 4-Corners (weakening
trend of late) or s/w swinging through the Great Lakes late week.

So stay dialed in on the weather.

45

CLIMATE...

Tied the record for record high minimum at Galveston
yesterday...83 degrees previous record holder for July 7th was
1994.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 78 96 77 97 / 40 30 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 82 92 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...24

https://www.windy.com/?32.657,-82.336,7

Surface winds around where the Invest was tagged ( Georgia)

Discussion From Levi Cowan..

#TweetForScientists] Another thing to watch:While 92L's low-level vorticity center is in the middle of Georgia right now, the mid-upper vorticity center is over Alabama. How these two features move relative to each other and their interplay with convection tonight is important pic.twitter.com/THz0zo3lKH
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 8, 2019

From Crown Weather Services

Icon model upper Texas coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=114

Again, just for educational purposes...

PSA from NWS Houston Galveston

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:33 am Again, just for educational purposes...

So How reliable is the Icon Model?