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The powerful deepening surface low will push across the Central Plains tomorrow resulting in a line of showers and thunderstorms pushing across SE TX during the morning and early afternoon. The marginal risk area continues for SE TX with a few strong storms and damaging winds being the main threat. So ready for some more sun and warmth. Headed up to NTX tomorrow after the wind event Thursday through Saturday are mostly sunny but cold with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

some nasty winds with the front

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr ... autoreload
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 980,32.728
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 31.41,2827

Narrow line of storms beginning to develop in SETX... ahead of the MCS.

Latest few HRRR runs showed some light initiation of rain developing around this hour, but not quite the intensity that has actually developed.

Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:09 am Narrow line of storms beginning to develop in SETX... ahead of the MCS.

Latest few HRRR runs showed some light initiation of rain developing around this hour, but not quite the intensity that has actually developed.

Perhaps a sign the cap can be busted later today?

jasons wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:37 am

Belmer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:09 am Narrow line of storms beginning to develop in SETX... ahead of the MCS.

Latest few HRRR runs showed some light initiation of rain developing around this hour, but not quite the intensity that has actually developed.

Perhaps a sign the cap can be busted later today?

Well, as quickly as it formed, it fizzled out fairly rapidly. Latest NAM sounding shows a pretty decent cap aloft. So not expecting too much as the initial line passes through. Don't think we'll see sunshine in the next couple hours to help reduce that. Skinny line of storms should still make there way through between 11a-2p.

Not pleased to see the cap in place two events in a row so early in the season. Was hoping for some decent storms this Spring with The Nino.

I'm very pleased to see the cap firmly in place. Needs to dry up in my area.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:30 am I'm very pleased to see the cap firmly in place. Needs to dry up in my area.

Careful what you wish for. Remember what happened last time you wished for dry weather and it didn’t rain for 6 months.

updated Day 1 Convective Outlook - looks like they removed any "enhanced" areas



adding text, now posted online:

SPC AC 131617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE ARK-LA-MISS AND WESTERN TN VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms with damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible late this afternoon into early tonight for the Ark-La-Miss and western Tennessee vicinity. Isolated severe storms may also occur this afternoon/evening near the Kansas-Nebraska border.

...Ark-La-Miss to western TN vicinity late this afternoon into early tonight...
A deep cyclone is in the process of occluding near the KS/CO border, and this cyclone will begin to fill while moving to the NE/IA border by early Thursday. An associated pre-frontal convective band will slow in its eastward progress and eventually stall by later this afternoon across eastern AR and northern LA. Regional 12z soundings and surface analyses revealed poor low-level moisture as far north as I-20, with substantial low-level moistening and some warming necessary to support surface-based CAPE. Also, relatively warm profiles around 700 mb will keep the level of free convection high, such that substantial deep ascent will be needed to remove convective inhibition.

It appears that destabilization will have to act most of the day to create profiles favorable for surface-based storms into the Ark-La-Miss along the stalling pre-frontal trough. Meanwhile, this same corridor will be glanced by the right-entrance region of the mid-upper jet, supporting ascent along the surface boundary from late afternoon into early tonight. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in a band along the pre-frontal trough, with some tendency for training convection along the boundary. Wind profiles will be favorable for supercells with strong low-level and deep-layer vertical shear persisting into tonight, which conditionally favors a damaging wind and tornado threat. However, rather poor low-level lapse rates and somewhat marginal buoyancy suggest that the strong shear may dominate and somewhat temper the severe-storm threat.

...KS/NE border region this afternoon/evening...
A zone of clearing and residual low-level moisture will establish along the nose of the midlevel dry slot and immediately in advance of the deep cyclone, from northern KS into southern NE this afternoon. Relatively cold profiles and steep lapse rates will allow weak surface-based buoyancy as temperatures warm to near 60 with residual dewpoints of 48-52 after some vertical mixing. A broken arc of low-topped storms could form in the zone of ascent this afternoon and spread from KS into NE. Wind profiles will be favorable for low-topped supercells within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, with an attendant threat for isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Weak buoyancy will tend to limit the overall threat.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 03/13/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

jasons wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:58 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:30 am I'm very pleased to see the cap firmly in place. Needs to dry up in my area.

Careful what you wish for. Remember what happened last time you wished for dry weather and it didn’t rain for 6 months.

It's always an arrid summer where I'm at

Looked more promising an hour ago than it does now. Cap is strong.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:00 pm

jasons wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:58 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:30 am I'm very pleased to see the cap firmly in place. Needs to dry up in my area.

Careful what you wish for. Remember what happened last time you wished for dry weather and it didn’t rain for 6 months.

It's always an arrid summer where I'm at

You must live in a marsh lol we got 5” here from that big storm a couple weeks ago and we’ve already dried out from that for the most part.

Looks like we may break the cap here as the line gets ever-so-closer. Latest NAM sounding supports some marginal thunderstorms and we are beginning to see some showers break out across southeastern Harris Co. and in Galveston Co.

Probably won't be a well defined line that comes through, rather more scattered with embedded thunderstorms along it developing.

Well I only got an hour or less to work with up here...

The front has pushed through. We are at 59F. Skies are very dark. No rain yet.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:09 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:00 pm

jasons wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:58 am

Careful what you wish for. Remember what happened last time you wished for dry weather and it didn’t rain for 6 months.

It's always an arrid summer where I'm at

You must live in a marsh lol we got 5” here from that big storm a couple weeks ago and we’ve already dried out from that for the most part.

Until this last week we were getting nearly daily rain. Front yard drains great but not the backyard. Nothing I can do when it's like that.

Cap is trying to break but it’s too little, too late at the house. Looks like a decent cell is about to pass by but it’s moving so fast, I won’t get much rain from it. I may actually get more rain from the post-frontal showers...which won’t be much.

It is dark outside though. At least it looks ‘stormy.’

Front is through. Party over up here. Ground barely got wet. Next...

jasons wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:48 pm Front is through. Party over up here. Ground barely got wet. Next...

I have no idea why they had rain chances so high today.

BlueJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:53 pm The front has pushed through. We are at 59F. Skies are very dark. No rain yet.

Still 75 degrees here in Stafford