March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

[tireman4]

What shall March bring?

[BlueJay]

Hopefully March will bring the end of "winter" and the beginning (or continuation) of SPRING!

[Katdaddy]

The beginning of the Spring Severe Weather season

[CrashTestDummy]

Hopefully drier weather!!

[srainhoutx]

Models continue to advertise a strong cold front arrives Saturday (March 2nd). There are indications that a couple of upper level disturbances and a noisy sub tropical jet overhead could keep things chilly and wet as we begin the first full week of March.

[Cpv17]

Models continue to advertise a strong cold front arrives Saturday (March 2nd). There are indications that a couple of upper level disturbances and a noisy sub tropical jet overhead could keep things chilly and wet as we begin the first full week of March.

The front really appears to lose steam as it gets closer towards TX according to the models. Why is that?

[Texaspirate11]

UGH...
With all this rain and cold - the blue bonnets best be spectacular this year thats all I'm sayin....

[srainhoutx]

While it is still a week away, our Gardeners may want to monitor the trends this weekend as the ECMWF and GFS suggest a freeze may be possible next Wednesday. Stay Tuned!

[BlueJay]

Thanks for the reminder of our bluebonnet season coming up, Texas Pirate! I am looking forward to seeing our Texas wildflowers.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Global guidance continue to advertise chilly air will be present as we head into the late weekend/early to mid next to week timeframe. Once again the computer models suggest at least a light freeze is possible next Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly next Thursday mornings.

[jasons2k]

NWS forecast has me at 37 both Monday Night and Tuesday Night. Will be watching this closely - this is already getting into frost territory.

[jasons2k]

OK, lows next week have now been lowered to 35. This is getting serious and a little sickening now.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Light freeze possible next week

Shallow, but impressive surface cold front has moved to near the coast this morning with a strong temperature gradient over the region. Caldwell has fallen to 37 and Brenham 39 compared to 67 Lake Jackson and 65 at Galveston. Looks like the front is just about to reach the coast and will likely move offshore, so pretty much everyone has experienced their high temperature for the day. Air mass is very shallow (only about 2000-3000ft) deep, but very cold at the surface with the freezing line as far so as Waco. Expect temperatures to continue to fall this morning likely falling into the 40’s along and N of US 59 and then holding steady this afternoon into tonight.

Post frontal air mass is being overrun by warm and moist southerly flow over the frontal inversion resulting in more fog, drizzle, mist, and light rain over much of the region. With the front making better progress than what most models were thinking and likely to push offshore this morning, see little hope for much improvement in the clouds, fog, drizzle for this afternoon.

This afternoon is starting to look a little interesting with a short wav e expected to move across the area and a bit of elevate instability in place. I am a little nervous with an approaching disturbance after the events on Monday and Tuesday and sure enough both the HRRR and the TX Tech WRF indicate showers and even elevated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon mainly across the southern 2/3rds of the region or south of HWY 105. A few of the stronger cells could produce some small hail and brief heavy rainfall, but currently not thinking this will end up like Tuesday evening.

Surface front will move back northward and inland on Friday and bring a warm and humid air mass back across the area as well as sea fog. Dewpoints rebound into the mid to upper 60’s by Friday afternoon, so it will feel very different from today. Could see some showers develop in the warm air advection pattern on Friday and Saturday and highs Saturday may reach near 80. Sea fog will plague the coastal locations likely during this entire period and move inland each evening.

Bottom falls out of the temperatures on Sunday as a strong arctic front comes barreling through the region. Much of the area will start the day in the 60’s and 70’s and then the strong front will come through from the morning hours up north to the early afternoon along the coast. Temperatures will fall quickly into the 40’s behind the front with strong cold air advection. Clouds and even some light rain and drizzle will be possible behind the front as the shallow, but very cold air mass is overrun by southerly flow aloft. Do not expect temperatures to get out of the 40’s on Monday.

A secondary cold front moves across the region Monday/Tuesday with a deep push of cold and drier air which should finally be enough to clear out the clouds. Bad news is that with clear skies and calm winds low temperatures by the middle of next week could be near or below freezing for some locations. Currently looking at a light freeze, but sensitive vegetation has broken dormancy recently and could be damaged by a freeze. Will need to monitor low temperature trends for the middle of next week to see just how cold it may get.

[srainhoutx]

OK, lows next week have now been lowered to 35. This is getting serious and a little sickening now.

Since the temperatures have busted way too warm with the current front we have on February 28th, it raises an eyebrow that the models are just not handling these cold shallow airmasses well at all. Gardener's need to pay real close attention since we are going to be precariously close to freezing temperatures at least a couple of early mornings next week. Hopefully this is the last hurrah of our Winter. I am sick of this dreary, damp and chilly weather.

[DoctorMu]

OK, lows next week have now been lowered to 35. This is getting serious and a little sickening now.

Since the temperatures have busted way too warm with the current front we have on February 28th, it raises an eyebrow that the models are just not handling these cold shallow airmasses well at all. Gardener's need to pay real close attention since we are going to be precariously close to freezing temperatures at least a couple of early mornings next week. Hopefully this is the last hurrah of our Winter. I am sick of this dreary, damp and chilly weather.

Subfreezing for us Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights. 20s very possible.

Looks like we had to wait until March for winter!

[jasons2k]

Latest forecast: 35 Monday night, 36 Tuesday night.

[Electric Lizard]

Thanks for the reminder of our bluebonnet season coming up, Texas Pirate! I am looking forward to seeing our Texas wildflowers.

They are already popping out up here near Brenham.

[jasons2k]

I think I've burned a fire more in the last two weeks than I have the rest of the winter.

[unome]

our TX Primrose just started blooming, but the 40 & 30 degree temps in the forecast will no doubt send them away for a while yet.

I will bow to Ra, should he decide to make an appearance in the next week, I really need a sun fix

[srainhoutx]

Notice in the satellite imagery that unome posted that our cold front continues to advance SE well out in the Gulf. That front was supposed to be heading back N as a warm front by now according to the computer models. Frankly, the models are doing a very poor job right now and I really do not trust them to have answers to our sensible weather forecast. Cloudy, chilly and drizzly with fog today and maybe into tomorrow. Perhaps that warm front will arrive sometime tomorrow and warm us up, but as of now I have my doubts.

The next strong front arrives quicker early Sunday morning if the short term meso models are to be believed. Mid to late afternoon arrival with the Global models. Again, like yesterday I will hedge my bet that the short term guidance handles shallow cold air better than the Global guidance. If I were a Gardner living in the typically colder areas of Metro Houston, I would anticipate at least a light freeze Monday morning through Wednesday morning.