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I don’t think Weather Bug for my area got the memo...70% chance of SNOW!

Coldest air is lagging behind just enough to keep lows in the upper 30s instead of the mid to lower 30s. Looks like a cold day with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s with lows tomorrow morning back in the 30s.

The strong cold front arrived late last night. Breezy N winds today with highs near 50. After a cold night with lows mostly in the mid 30s; a warming trend begins. Highs will reach 70F by Friday and low 70s for the weekend. Chances for rain and showers ahead from Thursday through the weekend and into next week. 31 days until the first day of Spring 2019.

I don't know if I've ever seen as many long range models that didn't verify or even really come close as I have this winter.

Just dropped to 35F in NW Harris County. That wind is COLD!!

Dropped to 35 here as well with a dew point of 23. My forecast low for tonight was raised to 36, but I may opt to cover the plants tonight just in case there aren’t any surprises. Any time the dew point gets that low, you have to be careful.

jasons wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:42 am Dropped to 35 here as well with a dew point of 23. My forecast low for tonight was raised to 36, but I may opt to cover the plants tonight just in case there aren’t any surprises. Any time the dew point gets that low, you have to be careful.

Yea, I think they are banking on clouds moving in. I see you mention your plants like in every post so I definitely would cover them just in case.

Forecast low was knocked back down to 35F. Will be watching the trends today very carefully. Will probably cover the plants just to be safe...there is also frost to worry about.

Edit - just stepped outside to grab lunch. It is cold out there, especially with the wind. I hope this is the last really cold day of the season.

Are there anymore fronts on the horizon?

christinac2016 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:40 pm Are there anymore fronts on the horizon?

Possibly around Thursday of next week.

This is from John Dawson:

There's always that one guy who insists they love the cold.

https://twitter.com/johndawsonfox26/sta ... 48160?s=21

jasons wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:23 pm This is from John Dawson:

There's always that one guy who insists they love the cold.

https://twitter.com/johndawsonfox26/sta ... 48160?s=21

That’s me on a 15-20 degree day! LOL

It's going to be a close call regarding those low temperature readings in the morning particularly close to our typical colder locals. HGX has me at 34F. Clouds are beginning to spread into the SE Texas Region and likely will make for spectacular sunset pictures. I did see several neighbors covering their flowerbeds this afternoon.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:13 pm

jasons wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:23 pm This is from John Dawson:

There's always that one guy who insists they love the cold.

https://twitter.com/johndawsonfox26/sta ... 48160?s=21

That’s me on a 15-20 degree day! LOL

that’s me in Colorado for a ski trip.

My dewpoint is down to 21. That’s pretty low. Will throw the covers on the plants tonight just to be extra cautious. I’ve been burned (busted) before with similar setups. Not happening this time.

Already down to 40f here with a dew point of 25.

Side note: I’ve seen about three different headlines today proclaiming how Chicago/Midwest is colder than Antarctica. Do these “journalists” not realize it’s summer in the Southern Hemisphere?

Silly me. Judging by the quality and accuracy of most scientific-related news articles why am I surprised?

Already 33 here just south of Lake Conroe with a forecasted low of 34. There goes that. lol

Down to 38F. Dew point holding at 25F. I still see starts up in the sky, too. I will sleep much better knowing everything is covered.

Temp held at 38 with the clouds. No freeze this week - such a blessing. Now, onto Spring!

Arctic front is pulling up stationary at the Red River this morning.

230
FXUS64 KHGX 301125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

.AVIATION...
Lowering ceilings are expected through tomorrow with MVFR levels
anticipated to develop late tomorrow morning or early tomorrow
afternoon. Areas of -RA/-SHRA can be expected to develop tomorrow
too. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Another cold night, particularly north of Houston where Crockett
has reached freezing at 3 am. This should generally come to an
end, with more seasonably chilly temperatures tomorrow night, and
then above normal temperatures into the middle of next week, with
highs reaching into the lower half of the 70s by early next week.
As for rain chances - those creep back into the picture as early
as Thursday, and simply don`t leave as an active upper pattern
continues. But this reflects a situation that is less neverending
rain, and much more uncertainty in timing these subtle rain
generators at long range. There will be a mix of wet and dry
periods - indeed, likely more dry than wet - but that rain could
come at most any time from tomorrow into next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The satellite shows a thick veil of cirrus across virtually all of
Southeast Texas at 3 am, and though it may be helping hold
overnight lows up slightly, Crockett has still managed to reach
freezing, so things may end up not too dissimilar from last night.
This will give us a cold start that developing onshore flow will
not be strong enough to really cause a big warming trend today.
So, look for temps to top out mainly in the 50s again today, a few
degrees cooler than yesterday.

Surface high pressure has moved east of the area, and will
continue to slide away from the area, but it should largely
dominate the surface pressure pattern today. A coastal trough
should begin to form up off the Mexican Gulf Coast, but this will
be too far away to have any real impact on our weather. But...for
what it`s worth, the radar is indicating that better rain
potential is on the way, as there are some very light returns at
high altitude on KHGX. None of this is reaching the ground, but
does hint at moisture already present aloft.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

On Thursday, look for the above-mentioned coastal trough/low to
scrape up the coast while the high continues to retreat. Thus,
rain chances will start to creep in as the day grows older -
particularly over the Gulf waters and immediate coastal areas. We
should also begin a solid warming trend as onshore flow
strengthens.

For Friday, the coastal trough looks to weaken as the old trough
axis gets shoved inland. We`ll also have a brief shortwave ridge
pass over, but it looks to be very brief as another upper trough
wheels into the region. Thus, rain chances should decrease but not
go away entirely. Of higher confidence is the continuing trend in
warming, and we may even reach 70 degrees in localized spots near
Matagorda Bay.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The active pattern continues as a string of upper disturbances
stream through both the arctic and subtropical jets, keeping at
least some low chances of showers in place deep into next week. Of
the numerous opportunities for rain, two features in particular
stand out - on Saturday, the strongest subtropical upper low will
scoot through, and the GFS indicates that there`s some chance of
phasing with a northern stream disturbance and surface low
traveling through the Great Lakes. The Euro does not indicate this
solution so I`m not going to sell out too hard on this scenario,
but this could potentially be the most impactful feature of the
next week (which is to say, still not terribly impactful).

Another thing to look for will come towards the middle of next
week, as we look for a front strong enough to push through
Southeast Texas to arrive. There`s surprising consensus on this in
the modeling, given that it is entirely different upper
troughs/surface low combos that are responsible for this front.
But, it does appear that sometime in the middle to late part of
next week that will spell the end of the warm stretch we are about
to enter into.

MARINE...

High pressure moving off to the east will allow winds to
veer to the east for the remainder of the week. South to
southeast winds will develop over the weekend and persist
through the first half of next week. Eventually we`ll start
seeing a transition to a warmer airmass moving over the
colder shelf waters toward the end of the week. The threat
of sea fog development should increase as we head into the
weekend and possibly linger into the middle part of next
week when the next cold front is forecast to push off the
coast. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 41 60 52 65 / 0 0 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 54 43 60 52 66 / 0 0 30 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 53 52 59 55 63 / 0 10 50 40 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$