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Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:19 pm
by srainhoutx
Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:30 pm
by Cpv17
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:19 pm
Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...
So by reading that, you think it could be colder than the upper 20’s? That’s what the models are saying right now for Sunday & Monday mornings, which is cold, but not anything out of the ordinary for January. A hard freeze would be below 25, right?
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:43 pm
by jasons2k
Locally, the NWS issues a hard freeze warning at 28 degrees.
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:01 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Also, anecdotally speaking, I think the arctic front plows through here earlier than the models are showing. I’ve seen it too many times, especially a front being powered by a 1045+ high. After careful consideration and taking that into account, Brooks and I decided to undercut guidance significantly for Saturday. I think we could be in the 40s before lunch. Maybe not out of the 30s on Sunday—which the Euro agrees. We went 40 for a high Sunday given the abundant sunshine expected.
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
by CRASHWX
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:19 pm
Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...
Good advise...and a little mischief might be fun! Time will tell the tale!
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:59 pm
by tireman4
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:19 pm
Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...
Good advise...and a little mischief might be fun! Time will tell the tale!
Srain's specialty is long range forecasting, so he knows a thing or two about a thing or two. He is a really good pro met, so listen to his wise judgement. He has been doing this a long time.
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:50 pm
by Cpv17
The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:00 pm
by CRASHWX
tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:59 pm
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:19 pm
Careful fretting over the MacFarland Signature chatter especially at 384 hour out. Those synoptic patterns are very rare and are very devastating on multiple levels including Agricultural and Gulf/Bay Fishing interest. That said the Medium Range synoptic pattern at 500mb does suggest the potential of possibly the coldest air we seen so far this Winter arrives Friday night into early Saturday. We still need to monitor the trends regarding the temperatures and any unforeseen noisiness in the Sub Tropical Jet or the Polar Jet that is not currently showing up in our reliable models. I do see a potential unsettled period after the first shot of Artic air early to mid next week. The various Global models are "sniffing out" a couple of disturbances in both the Sub Tropical Jet and the Polar Jet possibly crossing Texas next Tuesday into Thursday. Might keep an eye on that before venturing too far out in the future regarding our sensible weather. Probably wise to make some preparations for a possible Hard Freeze Sunday and Monday...
Good advise...and a little mischief might be fun! Time will tell the tale!
Srain's specialty is long range forecasting, so he knows a thing or two about a thing or two. He is a really good pro met, so listen to his wise judgement. He has been doing this a long time.
Oh I am a fan trust me! Look I am a weather enthusiast and I get post happy but trust me I value all you guy opinions and straight out up knowledge. I hope know one takes anything I say or post as being over the top. But no worries here...I just love the weather and all that that implies!
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:13 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Not gonna lie... I felt a tingle in the nethers reading the 18z GFS FOR mid next week
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:14 pm
by Kingwood36
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:50 pm
The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow
Snow and freezing rain everywhere except here lol
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:18 pm
by Kingwood36
Judging by that map would that swing east over to Houston IF it did verify?
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:28 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:14 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:50 pm
The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow
Snow and freezing rain everywhere except here lol
I get it in Montgomery County
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:30 pm
by Kingwood36
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:28 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:14 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:50 pm
The 18z GFS must be on some hardcore drugs cuz wow
Snow and freezing rain everywhere except here lol
I get it in Montgomery County
Well I would to I believe
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:31 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:36 pm
by Kingwood36
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:15 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:20 pm
by Cpv17
KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:15 pm
Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.
Haha hey it’s fun!! We all know the consequences, but still do it anyway.
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:42 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
KHOU BLake wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:15 pm
Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.
Oh, I know better, but those 3 frames are model porn and well, I’m going to wish.
With that said, the pattern is ripe and I do think we see another winter event or two.... whether that’s next week or February is of no substance to me.
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:43 pm
by CRASHWX
Many times I notice that when it comes goes several times all the sudden the mean community picks it and brings it to fruition and or it comes back solid in the last couple of days of the operational models. But Blake you are right it’s live and die! LOL
Re: January 2019 - Late Week Artic Front/Hard Freeze Possible
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:58 pm
by Katdaddy
The mid-level cloud deck finally arrived in NW Galveston County at sunset. Been there many times with the SE TX Winter weather“omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” as Blake posted. Its exhausting and I follow the short range models these days more the long range but raise an eyebrow if long models show consistency for multiple runs.
